Ironically, Iraqis best chance of peace may be a greedy and unscrupulous Exxon forcing an oil deal..
Sent from my iPad On Mar 10, 2012, at 14:32, [email protected] wrote: > > > > W Post > > In Iraq, growing gap sets Kurdistan apart > > By Ernesto Londoño, Updated: Saturday, March 10, 2012 > > IRBIL, Iraq — To land at the gleaming new airport in this booming regional > capital is to glimpse what Iraqd the United States hoped a decade ago that > all of Iraq might become. > > Cranes swivel across a skyline whose glittering high-rises and five-star > hotels bring an air of Dubai grandeur. Modern malls with brightly lit > boutiques do a brisk business. Modern, wide highways include pedestrian > bridges, some with escalators. > > This is Iraqi Kurdistan, a region that was semiautonomous even under Saddam > Hussein, but one that has been transformed in remarkable ways since the > American invasion of 2003. While the rest of Iraq remains saddled by scars > and trauma from the conflicts the U.S. invasion unleashed, the Kurdistan > region increasingly stands apart, with its own fractious, impoverished past > mostly a distant memory. > > But Kurdistan can only be held up as a success story with significant > caveats. Security has come at the expense of the repressive features of a > police state. Two ruling political parties have held on to power through a > vast network of patronage that has given the opposition little breathing room. > > Perhaps most alarmingly, its historically acrimonious relationship with > Baghdad has become downright poisonous since the last U.S. soldiers left the > country last December — casting a pall over the sustainability of its > aspirations. > > “If the other Iraq cannot lift itself you will have a gap, and that gap will > lead to conflict,’’ Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdistan’s president, > Massoud Barzani, said in an interview in his office in Irbil. > > Under Hussein, Kurdistan sat on vast oil reserves, but there were no > commercial flights into the region. The gray, drab architecture spoke of a > bygone era. Roads were rudimentary. Kurdish politics were infused with > mistrust and the deeply entrenched grudges of a civil war. > > Today, a combination of security, investor-friendly policies and the allure > of unexplored energy reserves have attracted an increasing number of oil > companies, including the world’s largest, Exxon Mobil, which last year signed > a landmark deal with Kurdish officials. > > At the same time, the social, cultural and political gaps between Kurdistan > and the rest of Iraq have widened in recent years as the northern region, > which was largely insulated from the insurgency and had virtually no U.S. > military presence during the war, continues to prosper while the rest of the > country remains beset by violence. > > “The Kurdistan region, in terms of development and economic growth, has the > potential to become the Iraq the U.S. had hoped for the entire country,” said > Denise Natali, a National Defense University professor who has studied the > Kurds for decades. > > ‘The other Iraq’ > > Irbil’s new airport, completed in 2010, offers direct flights to Vienna, > Dubai, Istanbul and Cairo, and it has been expanding steadily. Most > foreigners can enter Kurdistan without a visa or may obtain one at the > airport, unlike in Baghdad, which manages a cumbersome and expensive visa > system that has long bedeviled prospective foreign investors. > > The construction boom in virtually every corner of Irbil stands in sharp > contrast to the dilapidated city of Mosul, just 50 miles east, where vast > sections lie in ruins as a result of years of bombings by al-Qaeda in Iraq. > To enter Kurdistan from the parts of Iraq controlled by Baghdad, Arab Iraqis > must apply for special permission from Kurdish authorities, then navigate a > series of checkpoints manned by Kurdish soldiers who often make little > attempt to hide their contempt for Arabs. > > Kurdistan now markets itself as “the other Iraq,” with a revenue base that > had grown to more than $10 billion this year, mostly from oil exports and > Turkish investment, from just $100 million in 2003. Its battles with the rest > of the country revolve around how to distribute oil wealth and whether the > Kurds should be allowed to formally incorporate vast new areas into the > region. > > The growing schism has fueled the hopes for statehood that Kurds have long > held. Zhenar Bakhtiar, 21, a salesman at a perfume shop in a sleek mall in > Kurdistan’s second largest city, Sulaymaniyah, said he dreams of the day when > he will no longer bear an Iraqi passport. > > “Five years from now, the Kurds will have their own state,” he said on a > recent afternoon. He identifies himself as Iraqi only when he travels abroad > and must present his passport. “I’m a Kurd.” > > Competing visions on oil > > At first glance, the prospect of Kurdish statehood might seem plausible, if > not inevitable. But the two regions remain intrinsically linked in two vital > ways: Kurdistan gets its budget from Baghdad and must export the bulk of its > oil through a pipeline the central government controls. > > Baghdad and Irbil have laid out competing visions for how Iraq’s vast oil > reserves should be explored. In the absence of an agreement, the two > administrations have signed separate contracts with international oil > companies in recent years. Officials in Baghdad are particularly irked by the > nature of the Kurdistan region’s contracts, which give the oil companies a > direct stake in the reserves. > > The deals Baghdad has signed offer a flat rate per barrel of oil to > international companies running the field, a less attractive type of deal. > The dispute has prevented Iraqi lawmakers from producing a new hydrocarbons > law. The recent Exxon deal was particularly jarring to Baghdad because it > includes fields in disputed territories. > > “Right now there are no negotiations, no process whatsoever,” between Baghdad > and Irbil over the oil law, said Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert at the > International Crisis Group. “This can only go on for so long. Once these > fields start producing, Baghdad may draw a line and if the Kurds ignore that > you can end up with a conflict.” > > During its final years in Iraq, the U.S. military came to view the disputed > territories along Kurdistan as one of the country’s most potentially > destabilizing problems. American officials drew up plans to maintain large > diplomatic missions in the provinces that border Kurdistan, in large part to > act as honest brokers. Those plans were later scaled down as it became > apparent that the United States would not be able to leave behind a small > number of troops in Iraq. > > As oil production soars, and more money is at stake, anger among Arabs who > live in the disputed territories is likely to flare up, said Abdullah Humaid > Alyawar, the leader of the influential Shammar tribe. “When citizens see > their political officials disappointed them, we will see them rely on > themselves and their tribes,” he said. > > Left to their own devices, Iraqis are unlikely to reach a solution, said > Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish lawmaker. > > “It needs an influential broker,” he said. “Between political blocs > themselves we can’t solve it. The issue will stay as it is.” > > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
