Good analysis, nothing to argue with.
I think Romney will win by a large enough margin in Illinois to reestablish
him as the frontrunner. Illinois is the State of party-line block politics.
I think the IL voters will choose party (aka beating Obama) ahead of
conservative ideology.
Chris
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Christopher P. Hahn, Ph.D.
Constructive Agreement, LLC
<mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]
P.O. Box 39, Bozeman, MT 59771
(406) 522-4143 (406) 556-7116 fax
------------------------------------------
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of [email protected]
Sent: Wednesday, March 14, 2012 2:09 PM
To: [email protected]
Cc: [email protected]
Subject: [RC] Next up : Illinois
The possible final result of the Republican primaries became even more
uncertain
after last night's elections in Alabama and Mississippi. Santorum obviously
has captured
the hearts of a majority of the most conservative elements of the GOP and
Newt, while
still very much alive among this same demographic, is otherwise in trouble.
Which troubles
me as a voter ; Santorum is a political lightweight. This could mean major
problems if he
wins the nomination in Tampa this August.
How the Illinois contest plays out has the importance that a Romney win and
Mitt re-establishes
himself as the odds-on frontrunner. A Santorum win would create the
impression that he
would have become the presumptive new frontrunner. Another 12 % showing in a
state
outside of the South and I'm not sure where this leaves Gingrich except as a
Southern
candidate. As things now look he has become the "spoiler" in the race, a
role he dislikes
because he knows, as we all know, that he is the party's idea man and its
premiere debater.
But as one voter put it early in 2012, if only Romney could govern the
country after Newt
has debated Obama and destroyed him. But it is all but certain that Newt
won't have
that opportunity, which is about as unlikely as BHO accepting Sarah Palin's
challenge
to debate him, just reported at The Hill website.
The brightest spot on Tuesday night was the dismal showing of Ron Paul among
serious
conservatives, which is effectively zero. Paul gets his votes elsewhere, but
certainly
not from actual conservatives. On values issues Paul is completely
antithetical to
conservatism, just as he is antithetical to the values of neo-conservatives
in
the foreign policy realm. Paul's appeal, simply put, is to the disaffected
who
have little allegiance to the core principles of the GOP. How Paul gets the
support
he does in Texas, where he is a congressman, mystifies me. Unless "Texas
conservatism"
is a very different animal than national conservatism.
Anyway, Illinois should do much to clarify the race. If Romney wins by a
decent margin,
another cliff-hanger wouldn't do it, and a number of potential roadblocks to
his nomination
ought to be shoved out of the way. A Santorum win, even by 10 votes, and
Romney
would be seriously wounded , with a brokered convention a 50 -50
possibility.
My views as of today.
Billy
===================================
Illinois primary could help Romney stake his claim
By Dan Balz
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/dan-balz/2011/02/04/AB4ninE_page.html> ,
Published: March 13, 2012 The Washington Post
The Republican presidential candidates spent the past week honing their
Southern accents and talking awkwardly about their love of grits. With their
Southern swing behind them, they will return to the industrial heartland for
a potentially pivotal primary Tuesday in Illinois.
Illinois is the biggest of the three contests that will be held over the
next week, after Saturday's Missouri's caucuses and Sunday's Puerto Rico
primary. Given Rick Santorum's strong performance in the South, Illinois
becomes the latest state where pressure will be on Mitt Romney to regain
momentum. It also offers the former Massachusetts governor the opportunity
to extend his winning streak in Midwestern primaries.
Romney struggled mightily to beat Santorum in primaries in the two other big
Midwestern states, Michigan and Ohio. A Romney victory in Illinois would
puncture Santorum's hopes of winning and give the former governor a decisive
hold on the GOP nomination.
Romney is only narrowly ahead in Illinois, according to the most recent
public poll. But that puts him in better shape than he was at comparable
times in Ohio and Michigan. In both of those states, he trailed Santorum a
week out from the primary and used money and muscle to win.
The poll, by the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV
<http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-illinois-poll-20120311,0,16
17767.story> , showed Romney with 35 percent of the vote, followed by
Santorum with 31 percent, former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) with 12
percent and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) with 7 percent. But that survey might
understate Romney's potential strength, according to a number of Republican
strategists.
Romney's edge
"We start out in Illinois ahead," said a Romney supporter, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity to talk candidly about proprietary data. "In both
Ohio and Michigan, we started out behind and by double digits in both
states. Romney had to come from way back to catch Santorum in both states.
Here, he doesn't have to do that."
Santorum is at a disadvantage in the delegate fight, having failed to
qualify a full slate of delegates on Illinois's primary ballot. That hurt
him in Ohio as well.
Economic issues are likely to dominate the primary campaign in Illinois. The
state's unemployment rate is above the national average and higher than in
Michigan or Ohio. The state faces significant budgetary problems, despite a
tax increase enacted a year ago, and its bond rating is one of the lowest in
the country.
Despite the economy, Illinois is unlikely to be competitive in November
given that President Obama's home town is Chicago and that the state has
supported Democratic nominees in the past five presidential elections.
But the primary provides another test for the Republican nominees to
demonstrate their ability to motivate voters in the kind of big and diverse
states that will determine the outcome in the fall - and to make the case
about who is best equipped to defeat Obama nationally.
A state 'in the mix'
Illinois Republicans find themselves in an unfamiliar position. The state
hasn't hosted a truly competitive Republican presidential primary in more
than two decades. This year, their votes will probably help determine who
runs against Obama in November.
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
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Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
