HI Billy, On Apr 14, 2012, at 11:02 AM, [email protected] wrote:
> Yes, it is reassuring to think that some simple model of how the economy > works is all you need to know. Just learn Smith or Keynes and your > worries are over. OK, you may need to fill in a number of contemporary > details, you may need to account for problem areas here and there, but > essentially pure Smith or fundamental Keynes and you are set for life. > Which, however, is an utterly foolish view to take. What's interesting is that in the last decade, the natural sciences have had to swallow that same bitter pill. Now, it is generally acknowledge that there are no simple E = MC^2 equations that will magically make everything make sense. Rather, we have to collect massive amounts of data, run it through massive calculations, and then compare it with the results of many different massive simulations to get even a glimpse of the truth. Which we are unlikely to fully understand, because we can't fit all that data in our brains. That's true in Physics, Biology, and Chemisty -- it should hardly be a surprise that it is true in economics. But, as you know, they're still stuck in the imaginary past of Physics Envy. Not realizing that Physics has in fact succumbed to same disease of a complex, messy world that economics has always lived in. And in fact, it is largely for the same reasons: feedback. The world is an adaptive system, everything has non-linear consequences, and sometimes the very things we do make it impossible to ever do them again. Keynes no longer works because it once worked very well. Economies treat management (technological or political) the way bacteria treat antibiotics, and develop resistance. The real tragedy of economics is that it doesn't even understand its own ignorance. Hopefully that will change, one way or the other. -- Ernie P. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
