Hi Billy, On Apr 20, 2012, at 10:19 AM, [email protected] wrote:
> Ernie : > Ummm, as much as we all think that high tech is "the wave of the future," > there are such things as essential old school industries that are going > to remain essential for as long as anyone can imagine. Did you actually bother to read the report? The point is not that everything is high-tech. The point is that the "manufacturing process" is *itself* a technology, and thus is being disrupted just as surely as every other technology industry. It isn't going away, but the economies of scale and value creation are changing dramatically. > Shoes > Lumber > Power-line Transformers > Cement > Adhesives > Aluminum products > Plastics > Glass > Airframes > Paper products > Rubber and synthetics > Insecticides > Chemicals > Medicines and drugs > Fiber products > Tractors That's an odd list. Do you even realize that the U.S. is still the world's leading manufacturer? http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-36742134/manufacturing-surprise58-the-us-still-leads-in-making-things/ The problem is that we lead in low-value bulk-items (like lumber and glass) and high-value low-volume items (like drugs), neither of which create the large numbers of well-paying jobs GM used to. All the angst is largely about the medium-value mass-produced objects which China is specializing in. But those are *precisely* the areas most likely to be disrupted by technological innovation. Additive manufacturing is scaring plastic toy makers ***less. And yes, even shoe manufacturers are worried: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAVhnIUmyks America shouldn't chase where China was ten years ago. We need to figure out where manufacturing will be in 10 years, and make sure *those* kinds of factories -- or mixed manufacturing/service jobs -- are located here. -- Ernie P. > > > You get the idea. > > Yes, high tech has emerged as a really major factor in the economy. > Impossible to imagine many sectors without it. But there are such things > as industrial basics, the floor beneath our feet. Throw that away > and high tech becomes vulnerable to all kinds of forces that > no-one at MS or Apple has to worry much about at this time. > Trouble is, even now absence of worry would seem to be ill-advised > A "hollowed out" economy works against the national interest > including the national economic interest. > > Market forces are insufficient to protect a good number of essential > industries. > > National interest = national security > Without it we all are cooked. > > It is essential for economists to cease and desist obsessive fixation > on bottom-line profitability. Some things, like national survival, > are much more important. > > Billy > > ================================ > > > > > > > > > > 4/20/2012 10:03:57 A.M. Pacific Daylight Time, [email protected] > writes: > Hello again, > On Apr 19, 2012, at 9:11 AM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar wrote: > >> I think they are 100% correct. That is why any focus on protecting our >> existing manufacturing industry would be vastly counterproductive. > > > More details from their executive summary: > > http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/Lind,%20Michael%20and%20Freedman,%20Joshua%20-%20NAF%20-%20Value%20Added%20America%27s%20Manufacturing%20Future.pdf > >> Public policy needs to focus on the imperative of revital- izing and >> upgrading America’s manufacturing base, by methods that include: >> >> R&D and Technology Diffusion. Public policy needs to encourage private >> sector R&D, including through a per- manent R&D tax credit. Public >> investment in R&D and support for manufacturing should be financed in part >> by new federal development banks and federally-favored municipal bonds. >> Breakthroughs in R&D must be fol- lowed by development at scale and the >> diffusion of new transformative technologies across sectors, with the help >> of government procurement, credit and technology exten- sion programs. >> >> Infrastructure and Energy Strategy. In addition to these forms of direct >> assistance, infrastructure and energy policies can indirectly retain or >> onshore manufacturing in the U.S. by lowering the costs of energy and >> chemical feedstocks and by reducing bottle-necks in the transportation and >> commu- nications infrastructures. In addition to lowering the costs of >> manufacturing, the energy sector, revitalized by natural gas, and the >> construction of new, more efficient transporta- tion and communications >> systems can provide sources of demand for domestic manufacturing firms. >> >> Tax and Regulatory Reform. Tax policy should encourage investment in >> American manufacturing by foreign and domestic firms alike. Legacy >> regulatory systems need to be updated as cutting-edge technology blurs or >> destroys the boundaries among kinds of manufacturing or between >> manufacturing and services. >> >> Training Workers for Advanced Manufacturing Jobs. Rapid technological change >> in manufacturing means that the U.S. needs a new social contract in >> education which ratio- nally allocates responsibility for learning and >> upgrading skills among government, employers and individuals. >> >> Promoting Mutually Beneficial Rather than Adversarial Trade. The U.S. needs >> to do a better job of defending its industries against predatory policies by >> mercantilist nations, without sacrificing the benefits of access to for- >> eign markets and foreign talent. >> > > These may not be the final answers, but they are very much on the right track. > > -- Ernie P. > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
