London Telegraph Lessons from France By _Telegraph View_ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/) 7:28AM BST 23 Apr 2012 On the surface, the result of the first round of the _French_ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/) presidential election is entirely as expected: François Hollande has come out ahead of _Nicolas Sarkozy_ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/) , and the two will now proceed to a head-to-head contest. Given that Mr Sarkozy is the first president in decades to be defeated in this preliminary stage of the contest, and that the polls predict a convincing victory for Mr Hollande, things do not look good for the incumbent. Yet yesterday’s first round should give both parties – and observers across Europe – pause for thought. Much attention beforehand had been paid to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the charismatic ultra-Left-winger who promised to confiscate the wealth of those earning more than 300,000 euros. _In the event, however, it was Marine Le Pen, of the far-Right National Front, who was the day ’s surprise package_ (http://preview.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9219926/France-election-2012-one-in-five-vote-for-Marine-Le-Pen-as-Nic olas-Sarkozy-is-beaten-into-second-place.html) . She won not just a higher share of the vote than her father, Jean-Marie, ever managed, but far more votes full stop. Even in 2002, when he scraped through to the second round of the ballot ahead of the Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin, he did so on a turnout that was almost 10 per cent lower. What are the immediate lessons? First, that people are angry. The same combination of economic malaise and popular disillusionment that fuelled George Galloway’s by-election victory in Bradford is at work across the Continent, with voters disappointed by the existing parties and willing to turn to the extremes. They are also passionate: turnout of at least 80 per cent attests to that. Over the next fortnight, the expectation will be that the Left will fall in behind Mr Hollande, and the Right behind Mr Sarkozy. But we live in strange and turbulent times – and it would be foolish for either candidate to take a win as a sign that the old order has been restored. -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
