Religiousness a Key Factor for Romney and Obama Support
Frank Newport ("Gallup," April 25, 2012)
Princeton, USA - Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by 17 percentage points,
54% to 37%, among very religious voters in Gallup's latest five-day
presidential election tracking average. Obama leads by 14 points, 54% to 40%,
among
the moderately religious, and by 31 points, 61% to 30%, among those who are
nonreligious.
For the purpose of this analysis, an American's relative degree of
religiousness is based on responses to two questions asking about the
importance
of religion in one's life and about church attendance, yielding three
specific groups:
Very religious -- Religion is an important part of daily life and
church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs at least every week or almost every
week.
This group makes up 41% of registered voters interviewed April 19-23.
Moderately religious -- All others who do not fall into the very religious
or nonreligious groups but who gave valid responses on both religion
questions. This group makes up 27% of registered voters.
Nonreligious -- Religion is not an important part of daily life and
respondents seldom or never attend church/synagogue/mosque. This group makes up
32% of registered voters.
Voters' religiousness was a significant correlate of vote choice during the
Republican presidential primary season this year, with more religious
Republicans tending to vote for Rick Santorum, while less religious Republicans
tilted toward Romney. Despite Romney's troubles with highly religious
Republican voters, he gets the disproportionate support from highly religious
voters in the general election that Republican candidates traditionally
enjoy. Very religious voters make up less than half of the electorate,
however,
and among all Americans, Romney is losing to Obama by a seven-point
margin.
Romney Does Better Among Protestants
Obama is a Protestant Christian, and was a member of the Trinity United
Church of Christ in Chicago, while Romney is a member of the Church of Jesus
Christ of Latter-day Saints. Despite Protestants' broad religious connection
to Obama, they support Romney over Obama by a five-point margin in the
April 19-23 tracking aggregate. Obama is ahead among Catholics by six points,
and has a substantial lead among Americans who have no formal religious
identity.
There are significant differences within the broad group of Protestants --
52% of all registered voters in the April 19-23 sample -- based on how
religious they are. Very religious Protestants support Romney over Obama by a
19-point margin, while nonreligious Protestants tilt toward Obama by 11
points.
Very Religious Catholics Tilt to Romney
While Catholics -- who make up 24% of all registered voters -- tilt toward
Obama over Romney, their support differs significantly based on how
religious they are -- just as was the case for Protestants. Very religious
Catholics tilt slightly toward Romney, while Catholics who are moderately
religious or nonreligious tilt by 13- and 15-point margins toward Obama.
Romney Gets Nearly Two-Thirds Support Among Highly Religious White
Protestants
One confounding factor in these results is the reality that black Americans
are highly religious and highly likely to be Protestants, while at the
same time very likely to be Democrats. In the latest weekly election
aggregate, for example, 48% of black voters are very religious and only 12%
are
nonreligious, but at the same time, 89% support Obama. Thus, with nonwhites
factored out of the analysis, Romney leads by 24 points among white
Protestants, and by 41 points among very religious white Protestants. This
latter
group is the functional equivalent of the group of voters often called
evangelicals.
Implications
It appears that in this year's general election, religion will continue to
be a major determinant of how Americans vote for president. Highly
religious Americans, particularly those who are white and Protestant,
disproportionately support presumptive Republican presidential candidate
Romney, while
less religious Americans skew their support toward Democratic incumbent
Obama. This reinforces a basic pattern in American voting behavior that has
been evident for decades.
The fact that Mitt Romney continues to receive the support of highly
religious white Protestants is important, given that the Republican portion of
this group disproportionately supported Romney's opponent Santorum in the
Republican primaries. Just as it appears that Republicans as a whole are
coalescing around Romney even after the bitter primary battles, highly
religious
white Protestants appear to be coalescing around his candidacy as well.
President Obama's February Prayer Breakfast speech notably included a
number of references to the ways in which his religion and religious
convictions
guided his political policies. Obama's underlying theme was that religion
and Democratic policies are strongly compatible. That may be the case
theologically, but in the practical world of today's presidential politics, r
eligiousness continues to translate into Republican voting -- a pattern that,
to this point, does not appear to be changing.
At the moment, Obama does so well among less religious Americans that he
leads Romney among all registered voters by a 49% to 42% margin. For Romney
to be successful this November, it appears he will need to make further
inroads into the ranks of Americans who are not highly religious.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily
tracking survey April 19-23, 2012, with a random sample of 2,157
registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the
District
of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say
with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage
points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and
cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are
primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell
phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults,
with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline
telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers.
Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline
respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which
member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education,
region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline
only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number).
Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2011 Current Population
Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population
living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error
include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties
in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.
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