Obama Wins Second Debate, But Romney
Scores With Centrist, Likable Storyline
The big question about the second debate of the
presidential campaign—and perhaps the entire
presidential campaign itself—is this: is this now a
contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney or Mitt
Romney and himself?
If it’s the former, Obama won tonight. Like Joe Biden
before him, he spent more time on the offensive. He
not only came out of the Libya discussion, potentially
his most perilous, unscathed, but he flat-out won that
portion of the night. He repeatedly and lucidly
unloaded all the anti-Romney material that he didn’t
mention in the first debate.
But it’s possible this race is no longer about Barack
Obama. For days I’ve struggled to figure out why the
first debate so dramatically shifted the polls. I
don’t think it’s mostly because Obama was lousy. After
all, most Americans have seen Obama speak well dozens
of times; they know he just had an off night. The
first debate moved the polls because Obama, through
his passivity, allowed Romney to shine. Romney came
across as competent, moderate, and normal—something he
hadn’t managed all summer.
And I suspect—or should I say, fear—that the reason
the polls moved so much is that there were a lot of
voters who had tuned Obama out as a result of the bad
economy. They were ready to vote against him so long
as Romney passed a reasonable threshold, which he did.
We’ve seen this before in presidential campaigns: in
1980, Americans were looking for an excuse to vote
against the incumbent, Jimmy Carter, and so what
mattered most in the debates was that Reagan didn’t
look like a right-wing maniac. In 2008, Americans were
looking for an excuse to vote against the de facto
incumbent, John McCain, and so what mattered most in
the debates was that Obama didn’t look like a novice.
If the debates are really about people disillusioned
with Obama becoming comfortable with Romney, it
doesn’t really matter that Obama did better than
Romney tonight because Romney did well enough. He
again and again reminded Americans that the economy is
worse than Obama said it would be, and he offered some
kind of plan to make it better.
All year, the Obama campaign has been trying to make
this campaign about Mitt Romney. It’s been an
understandable strategy given the state of the
economy, but it has also relied on Romney not being
able to change the storyline about him that Obama
began pounding home this summer. In the first debate,
Romney did change that storyline, and tonight he did
more of the same, appearing centrist, compassionate
and hopeful.
If the Obama campaign can’t undermine the new, more
likable image that Romney has created, it may not
matter how well the president performs in the weeks to
come. This campaign may now be Romney’s to lose.
