Nice article. Anything that gives some structure out of what's happening now is helpful.
On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 10:05 AM, Dr. Ernie Prabhakar < [email protected]> wrote: > Nice bit of futurism; matches what I'm seeing. > > > http://cdixon.org/2013/02/10/the-computing-deployment-phase/?utm_campaign=website&utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_medium=email > > The computing deployment phase - Chris Dixon > > Technological revolutions happen in two main phases: the installation > phase and the deployment phase. Here’s a chart (from > this<http://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Capital-Dynamics/dp/1843763311> > excellent > book by Carlota Perez > via<http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/05/technological-revolutions-and-financial-capital.html>Fred > Wilson) showing the four previous technological revolutions and the > first part of the current one: > > [image: url] > > > > Each revolution begins with a financial bubble that propels the > (irrationally) rapid “installation” of the new technology. Then there’s a > crash, followed by a recovery and then a long period of productive growth > as the new technology is “deployed” throughout other industries as well as > society more broadly. Eventually the revolution runs its course and a new > technological revolution begins. > > In the transition from installation to deployment, the bulk of the > entrepreneurial activity moves “up the stack”. For example, in the > installation phase of the automobile revolution, the action was in building > cars. In the deployment phase, the action shifted to the app layer: the > highway system, shipping, suburbanization, big box retail, etc. > > This pattern is repeating itself in the computing/internet revolution. > Most of the successful startups in the 90s built core infrastructure (e.g. > optical switching) whereas most of the successful startups since then built > applications on top of that infrastructure (e.g. search). The next phase > should see startups higher in the stack. According to historical patterns, > these would be ones that require deeper cultural change or deeper > integration into existing industries. > > Some questions to consider: > > - What industries are the best candidates for the next phase of > deployment? The likely candidates are the information-intensive > mega-industries that have been only superficially affected by the internet > thus far: education, healthcare, and finance. Note that deployment doesn’t > just mean creating, say, a healthcare or education app. It means > refactoring an industry into its “optimal structure” – what the industry > would look like if rebuilt from scratch using the new technology. > > - How long will this deployment period last? Most people – at least in the > tech industry – think it’s just getting started. From the inside, it looks > like one big revolution with lots of smaller, internal revolutions (PC, > internet, mobile, etc). Each smaller revolution extends the duration and > impact of the core revolution. > > - Where will this innovation take place? The historical pattern suggests > it will become more geographically diffuse over time. Detroit was the main > beneficiary of the first part of the automobile revolution. Lots of other > places benefited from the second part. This is the main reason to be > bullish on ”application layer” cities like New York and LA. It is also > suggests that entrepreneurs will increasingly have multi-disciplinary > expertise. > > -- > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community < > [email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > > > -- Ryan Tanaka Ph.D, Historical Musicology at USC http://ryangtanaka.com - Scholarship, music, entrepreneurship. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
