U.S. Catholic Hispanic Population Less Religious, Shrinking
Frank Newsport ("Gallup Politics," February 25, 2013)
Princeton, NJ -- Although the majority of Hispanics in the U.S. are
Catholic, the smaller group of Hispanics who are Protestant are significantly
more
likely to be very religious (60%) than those who are Catholic (43%).
This analysis is based on more than 360,000 Gallup Daily tracking
interviews conducted from January 2012 through January 2013, including 28,607
interviews with Hispanics. The religious characteristics of Catholics,
including
those in the United States, are of particular interest as the election of a
new Pope begins with the announced resignation of Pope Benedict XVI.
Overall, 40% of Americans nationwide are very religious based on
respondents saying religion is an important part of their daily life and that
they
attend religious services every week or almost every week. Thirty-one percent
of Americans are not religious, saying religion is not an important part
of their daily life and that they seldom or never attend religious services.
The remaining 29% of Americans are moderately religious, saying religion
is important in their lives but that they do not attend services regularly
or that religion is not important but that they still attend services.
The substantial difference in the religiosity of Catholic and Protestant
Hispanics is reflective of a pattern found in the U.S. population overall.
Fifty-one percent of all Protestants, including those who identify themselves
as Christian but not Catholic, are very religious, compared with 43% of
all Catholics. But this eight-percentage-point gap among all Americans
expands to 17 points among Hispanics, primarily because Hispanic Protestants
are
significantly more religious than all Protestants in the U.S. Hispanic
Catholics, on the other hand, are no more religious than the general Catholic
population.
Protestant-Catholic Gap in Religiousness Evident Among Hispanics of All
Ages
The religiousness gap between Protestant and Catholic Hispanics is evident
across all age groups. The percentage of 18- to 29-year-old Hispanic
Protestants who are very religious is 19 points higher than Catholic Hispanics
of
the same age. Among Hispanics who are 65 and older, the
Protestant-Catholic gap is 12 points.
Older Hispanics More Likely to Be Catholic
Catholics in the U.S. today are suffering from an identity shortfall among
Hispanics younger than the age of 30. Less than half of 18- to 29-year-old
Hispanics are Catholic, significantly lower than the percentage Catholic
among those aged 30 and older. This is particularly noteworthy as there is no
shortfall of Protestants among young Hispanics compared with older age
groups: The Protestant percentage is almost identical across all age groups.
Younger Hispanics, as is the case in general in the U.S. population, are
less likely to have any religious identity at all. This tendency of the
youngest Hispanic Americans to be "nones" -- without an explicit religious
identity -- thus appears to come at the cost of Catholic identity and not
Protestant identity.
Younger Americans in general tend to become more religious as they age
through their 30s. Assuming that this pattern holds for today's young Hispanics
as they get older, the question becomes whether they will adopt the
Catholic identity that is more prevalent among their elders, or if their
disproportionate tendency to be Protestant will continue in to their older
years.
If the latter pattern holds, then Hispanics as a whole will become less
Catholic in the decades ahead.
In fact, Hispanics have become less likely to identify as Catholic over the
past five years, while the percentage saying they are Protestant has
stayed roughly the same.
Overall, the finding that younger Hispanics are proportionately more
Protestant and that all Hispanics are becoming proportionately more Protestant
over time suggest that the percentage of Hispanics who are Catholic may
continue to slip in the years to come. As noted, this will be particularly
true
if today's young Hispanics maintain their proportionally higher Protestant
identification.
Implications
A majority of Hispanics in America continue to identify as Catholic,
although the Catholic percentage among Hispanics appears to be decreasing and
the
youngest Hispanics in America today are less likely to be Catholic than
those who are older. Additionally, those Hispanics who are Catholic are much
less religious than those who are Protestant.
The percentage of Hispanics who are Protestant is, on the other hand, co
nsistent across age groups and has been stable since 2008.
These patterns suggest the potential for an increase in the relative or
proportionate number of Protestant Hispanics in the years ahead. If this does
happen, and given that Protestant Hispanics are considerably more religious
than Catholic Hispanics, this could lead to a higher average level of
Hispanic religiosity in future years.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted
January 2012-January 2013, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random
sample of 28,607 Hispanics, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S.
states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of Hispanics, one can say with 95%
confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and
cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are
primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum
quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with
additional minimum quotas by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at
random among listed telephone numbers. Cellphones numbers are selected using
random digit dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within
each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability,
nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling
frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender,
age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and
phone status (cellphone only/landline only/both, cellphone mostly, and having
an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on
the March 2012 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older
U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the July-December 2011
National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the
2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed
design effects for weighting.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties
in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
public opinion polls.
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