Try carrying that desktop around with you. David
On Sep 21, 2013, at 4:03 PM, [email protected] wrote: > > > > betanews > September 19, 2013 > > > The secret of iOS 7 > > > By Robert X. Cringely > > The Innovator’s Dilemma, a 1997 book by Harvard professor Clayton > Christensen, made the point that successful companies can lose their way when > they pay too much attention to legacy products and not enough attention to > new stuff. They are making so much money they either don’t see a competitor > rising up or are too complacent to feel threatened. In either case the > incumbent generally loses and the upstart (usually one of many) generally > wins. The best way for successful companies to avoid this problem is by > inventing the future before their competitors do. > We see this pattern over and over in high tech. Remember Lotus? Remember Word > Perfect? Remember Borland? And it’s not just in software. Remember IBM > sticking too long with the 80286 processor? Remember the Osbourne Executive? > > Microsoft certainly faces this dilemma today, having nothing with which to > replace Windows and Office. Some say Apple, too, is living now on the wrong > side of the innovation curve, but I don’t think so. I think Cupertino has a > plan. > > When Apple announced its iPhone 5c and 5s mobile phones I alluded to having > an idea of some broader strategy Cupertino had in mind for the devices, > especially the iPhone 5s. Here are the clues I am working from: > > Tim Cook was clear to claim the iPhone 5s had a "workstation-class 64-bit > processor". > iWork is now free on all new iOS devices. > iOS 7 has, for the first time, support for not just Bluetooth keyboards but > Bluetooth mice as well. > There’s a new Apple TV of some sort coming anytime now. > Here’s what I think is happening. At the very moment when Apple critics are > writing-off the company as a three- or four- or five-hit wonder, Apple is > embracing the fact that desktop computers only represent about 15 percent of > its income, making Apple clearly a mobile technology company. As such, it is > more important for Apple to expand its mobile offerings than its desktops. So > Apple in a sense is about to make the Macintosh deliberately obsolete. > > This doesn’t mean Apple is going out of the Mac business. Why would it drop a > hardware platform that still delivers industry-leading profit margins? But a > growing emphasis from here on out will be the role of iOS on the desktop. > > I see the iPhone 5s and whatever follows as logical desktop replacements. > They, and phones like them, will be the death of the PC. > > Jump forward in time to a year from today. Here’s what I expect we’ll see. Go > to your desk at work and, using Bluetooth and AirPlay, the iPhone 5s or 6 in > your pocket will automatically link to your keyboard, mouse, and display. > Processing and storage will be in your pocket and, to some extent, in the > cloud. Your desktop will require only a generic display, keyboard, mouse, and > some sort of AirPlay device, possibly an Apple TV that looks a lot like a > Google Chromecast. > > That’s what I have running in the picture on this page, only with my iPhone 5 > and iOS 7. A year from now I expect the apps will detect and fill the larger > screen. And that Mac-in-your-pocket will have not only iWork installed, but > also Microsoft Office, which Microsoft will be forced to finally release for > iOS. Apple making iWork free on new devices -- devices powerful enough for > this desktop gambit -- guarantees that Microsoft will comply. > > Go home and take your work with you. Go on the road and it is there, too. IT > costs will drop for businesses as desktop PCs are replaced. Having a desktop > at home will cost in the $200 range, bringing costs for home IT down, too. > > Why would Apple do this? Well for one thing if it doesn’t Google will. For > that matter Google will, anyway, so Apple has some incentive to get this in > the market pronto. > > There are other reasons why Apple would do this. For one thing it is much > more likely to hurt the PC market than the Mac market, since pocket desktop > performance probably won’t be there for Apple’s core graphics and video > markets. Mac sales might actually increase as sales are grabbed from > faltering Windows vendors. > > But in the end it doesn’t really matter to Apple what happens to the Mac > since it is a phone company now. And by embracing its phone-i-ness, Apple > will be giving its mobile business a huge boost. Want an iPhone desktop? That > will require a new phone, probably sooner than you would otherwise have > upgraded. If you are thinking of this new phone as your total computing > environment, albeit backed-up to the cloud, you’ll be inclined to spend more > on that phone, opting for the maximum configuration. Apple makes a higher > profit on maxed-out iPhones than on base phones. And instead of upgrading > your desktop every 2-3 years, you’ll now be doing it every 1-2 years. > > But wait, there’s more! This desktop gambit completely bypasses Wintel. > There’s no pro-Windows bias in the phone market. If anything there’s an > anti-Windows bias, so Apple will be playing to its strength. This will be a > huge blow to Microsoft, Windows, and Office, yet Redmond will lean into it in > an attempt to save Office. Either that or die. > > This is a chance for Apple to reinvent the desktop exactly as it reinvented > the music player, the mobile phone, and the tablet. For those who say Apple > can’t do it again, Apple is already doing it again. > > Ironically, for all the stories I’ve been reading about the death of the > desktop, this strategy I am laying-out guarantees a desktop resurgence of > sorts -- only one that won’t help Dell or HP a bit. > > Now take this idea one step further. There’s an opportunity here for Apple to > promote yet another hardware platform -- a mobile interface to go with that > iPhone. This is a device I seriously considered doing myself for Android a > couple years ago but the performance just wasn’t yet there. > > You see for all the advantages of having a desktop in your pocket, we really > prefer larger displays and even keyboards to do actual work. Tablets have > their place, but that place is not everywhere. Commodity desktop peripherals > are easy to provide at work and home but much more difficult on the road. Use > an iPad to give a bigger screen to your iPhone? That doesn’t make sense. So I > expect Apple to build for road warriors a new class of devices that have the > display, keyboard and trackpad of a notebook but without the CPU, memory or > storage. Call it a MacBook Vacuum, because it’s a MacBook Air without the air. > > More likely, since it’s an iOS device, Apple will call this gizmo an > iSomething. It will be impossibly strong and light -- under a pound -- the > battery will last for days, and it ought to cost $199 for 11-inch and $249 > for 13-inch, but Apple being Apple will charge $249 and $349. > > What I’m predicting, then, is an Apple resurgence. But let’s understand > something here: this is yet another product class that Apple will dominate > for awhile then eventually lose. It’s a 3-5 year play just like the iPod, > iPhone, and iPad. Google and Amazon will be in hot pursuit, each more willing > than Apple to pay to play. Cupertino will have yet another dilemma a few > years from now and possibly another revolution to foment after this one if it > can think of something new. The firm will need it. Still I see happy days > ahead for Apple with iOS 7 and the legacy of Steve Jobs preserved for now. > > > ====================================== > > > This... > > <Untitled.jpg> > > > > > .....is superior to this? > > <Untitled.jpg> > > > You've gotta be kidding. > > > > -- > -- > Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community > <[email protected]> > Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism > Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org > > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- -- Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community <[email protected]> Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group. 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