Local elections: small earthquake in England
Ukip's achievement, though more modest than last year, shows it can take
votes in Labour areas as well as Conservative ones
* _Editorial_ (http://www.theguardian.com/profile/editorial)
* * _The Guardian_ (http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian) ,
Friday 23 May 2014 16.05 EDT
* _Jump to comments (269)_
(http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/23/editorial-local-elections-small-earthquake-england#start-of-comm
ents)
It was the election that broke the mould. On a day that rocked the party
political order, Ukip was the big new winner in the English _local
elections_ (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/local-elections) , exceeding
expectations and riding a populist wave. Nigel Farage's party captured dozens
of
new council seats and scored an unprecedentedly large share of the projected
vote nationwide. All three established parties took hits as Ukip surged.
The result was that, overnight, England now had four-party politics, just
like Scotland and Wales. With all parties scoring less than a third of the
votes, another hung parliament loomed on the horizon. As the BBC's Nick
Robinson put it: "The people have spoken. Now it's time for the political
classes to try to work out what on earth they meant."
_That was last year, of course, _
(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240020) not this. Memories can fade,
so it is worth reminding ourselves
about _the 2013 local elections_
(http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/RP13-30/local-elections-2013)
because they
show that what happened in the 2014 locals this week was not a bolt from the
blue. Indeed, 2014 was not as dramatic a revolt against the established
parties as 2013. As the dust settled, _this week's results_
(http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/may/23/local-election-results-live)
look like a
minor-key replication of what happened 12 months ago.
Ukip's share of the vote went down this week, not up. Yes, it scored
impressively well, in the high teens of vote share according to _BBC
projections_ (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27531094) , but it did not
come
close to dislodging Labour and the Conservatives as the two frontrunner
parties, while the Liberal Democrats remained far behind in the low teens. The
2014 elections, in short, look less like the eruption of a new political
order than the partial solidification of the one that erupted a year ago. The
earthquake was last year, not this.
That is not to downplay Ukip's achievement this week. Ukip has arrived –
and has stayed. It won more seats than in 2013 on a lower share of the vote.
Whether Ukip commands nationwide support in the high teens, as in 2014, or
the low 20s, as in 2013 – perhaps more when the European elections are
counted on Sunday – the upshot is the same: English _local government_
(http://www.theguardian.com/society/localgovernment) has four big parties
now. Mr
Farage, almost single-handedly, has leveraged popular hostility to Europe,
immigration and the political establishment into a national electoral
force.
The other parties can no longer ignore Ukip or its voting power. Nothing
like this has happened since the emergence of the SDP in 1981. The SDP came,
stayed and challenged significantly for a while; then it disappeared.
Ukip's bubble may deflate too, in time. It is far too soon to say for sure.
Ukip
should not be underestimated. But it should not be overestimated either.
This week's elections have certainly underlined two things that were not
widely enough understood. Ukip can take votes in Labour areas as well as
Conservative ones; and its impact on first-past-the-post outcomes is hard to
predict in detail. In that respect the party is a bit like one of those
hard-to-control 'infernal machines' beloved of 19th-century revolutionaries.
If Ukip maintains a large share of the vote in the 2015 general election,
it may make a Commons breakthrough itself. But the Ukip vote is not uniform –
it is strong in the east of England, but weaker in London, Scotland and
Wales and most northern cities. Even in seats it does not win, Ukip is
likely to trigger unpredictable results of several kinds.
By old standards, none of the three main parties did well this week. Yet,
just as Ukip did a little worse than some predictions, so the others
suffered less badly than first appeared. All had disappointments, losing
councils
they hoped to gain or retain. Yet both Labour and the Tories put their
national share of the vote up from 2013, and BBC projections placed Labour two
points ahead of the Tories, which should calm _some Labour nerves_
(http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/23/local-elections-ed-miliband-nigel-f
arage) a little. Even the Lib Dems had some successes in core vote areas,
which may deter an instant panic.
The truth is that British politics remain a nip-and-tuck fight. It is a
very fluid picture. And the European results will roll the dice anew tomorrow
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