I am part of the 47%.
From: [email protected]
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Sent: Saturday, October 11, 2014 7:57 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [RC] Independents now 47% of electorate
MSN News
story by: Alexandra Jaffe
Independents -wave of the future?
October 11, 2014
As Americans sour on partisan sniping this election cycles, many are turning
towards independent candidates as a better option.
Now, with viable independents playing a role in two major races, it’s a shift
that might have seismic consequences in the battle for the Senate this fall and
beyond.
Independents could serve as spoilers for Republicans in Kansas and South
Dakota, seats that were supposed to be easy pickups for the GOP but have come
on the map due to the Republican candidates' surprising weakness in both races.
If the independent alternatives win, they could hold the key to control of the
Senate, wielding outsize influence for their states by parlaying their caucus
commitments into plum committee posts or commitments on votes for key issues.
It’s is indicative of a broader trend in American politics that's not confined
to any one race or candidate, strategists and analysts say, and it's a
movements that's only likely to grow in the coming years.
The parties are the "the old model for politics," said Crystal Canney, formerly
campaign spokeswoman for independent Maine Sen. Angus King's successful 2012
bid. “And you're going to see an increase in independents across the country
going forward,” she said.
Independents, it seems, are the wave of the future.
They're harnessing Americans' disillusionment with the parties, who are viewed
increasingly poorly and as largely ineffective in voters' minds.
Every few weeks, Republican leaders are asked to answer for another off-color
comment by a GOP lawmaker at the state or federal level. And the growing
perception of President Obama as weak on domestic and foreign policy has tarred
the Democratic Party by proxy.
Susan Boardman Russ, who served as chief of staff to former independent Sen.
Jim Jeffords (Vt.), said she knows many Democrats and Republicans who simply
won't identify with a party because of its reputation.
"It's more politically correct, they don’t want to be labeled with all
Republicans who say crazy things, and truly Democrats, they're kind of
discouraged with Obama. So they tend to identify themselves with independents,"
she said.
Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political professor and elections
expert, has done studies that indicate another aspect prompting the rise of
independent candidates is the increasing polarization of the parties.
"You can see in the data, when two parties become more ideologically distinct
from each other, you see a greater success rate for independent candidates," he
said. "These are moderates who are in the middle."
Indeed, while the parties have become more partisan over time, the Gallup
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx> tracking poll most
recently showed those identifying as independents hit a record-high 47 percent
in September.
That same survey also showed that when independents were asked which party they
lean towards, more chose the Republican Party than the Democratic Party. That’s
an indication more Republicans are dissatisfied with their party than
Democrats, so they’re turning to independents as an answer.
That may be why this cycle independents are picking up traction in two deep-red
states, McDonald suggested.
"In recent election cycles, the Republican Party gets polarized further than
the Democratic Party" due to contentious primary fights, he noted. "So there
are more moderate Republican voters who find themselves disaffected from the
Republican Party."
McDonald suggested if that partisanship subsides and moderation again takes
hold in the parties, Americans may return to being card-carrying party members.
But it's difficult to see such a shift back to the center taking hold in the
near future. And Boardman Russ said that the exodus from the parties may be as
much caused by systemic and cultural changes in American politics, that are
unlikely to be reversed.
Decades ago, she noted, "being part of a party was part of your social network,
it was a family thing," and politics was more of a communal activity, with
partisans gathering for social events like Republican bean suppers and
Democratic chicken dinners.
"That just doesn't fit into the world anymore, so people don’t have that
from-birth-to-death identification with the core of a party," said Boardman
Russ.
The decline of the party has also given independents a structural opening to
mount credible campaigns. With the rising influence of deep-pocketed outside
groups, and a wide range of media options for candidates to get their messages
out, independents aren't hindered as much by a lack of party apparatus or money.
And if Americans are experiencing an inexorable march away from the parties and
towards independents, the workings of Congress may see a transformation too.
Neither Kansas independent Greg Orman nor South Dakota independent Larry
Pressler, who are both competitive with their Republican opponents in recent
polling, have indicated who they'd caucus with if they're elected.
But if they both win, they could join with the other two independents in the
Senate — Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine — to create an
independent caucus that could hold immense power and influence over contentious
policy negotiations, and perhaps help break through the gridlock in Washington.
Boardman Russ compared the potential independent caucus to the former "Mod
Squad" group of five senators — which included Jeffords, Olympia Snowe and
Susan Collins of Maine, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Arlen Specter of
Pennsylvania. They became extremely powerful by holding out their votes in a
bloc to win concessions and broker compromises — and ultimately encourage a
culture of compromise in the Senate.
"If one side was not cooperating, they would vote the other way just to make
the point. They tended to go with the side that seemed to be making the biggest
effort to forge some type of compromise," she said.
That's exactly how Pressler thinks he and other independents would affect
Senate business if he's elected this fall.
"It may be a historic time in American politics. If there could be an
independent caucus — I mean we'd still have to caucus with whichever side we
chose to — but that could be a group that could work to end the poisonous
disputes between Republicans and Democrats," the former GOP senator told The
Hill in an interview this week.
Pressler also suggested the four could make up a core of a 20-senator "centrist
caucus," which could further help negotiate compromises on key debates and get
policies moving in the Senate.
That possibility, that independents could work above the fray to actually get
things done, is part of both Pressler and Orman's sales pitch to voters. It’
something, Canney said, that voters are craving at a time of unprecedented
partisan bickering.
“People as a whole are paying attention to what has happened with gridlock in
their state and in Washington, across the country,” she said.
“They’re really, really tired of hearing, ‘I can’t get it done because of the
other side.’ So there’s a growing number of people who say, I don't care about
that stuff. Just get it done.”
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