Just saw / heard Michael Oscarholm on C-Span, one of the world's leading epidemiologists. Among his bone fides, in the 1980s, in reply to a prediction that there would be an AIDs vaccine in 5 years or so, he said that he didn't expect any such thing in his lifetime because of the nature of the disease. Here it is, 2014 and guess what? Still no vaccine. What he is saying now is that he fully expects a massive epidemic to break out in central Africa very soon. that is, not only Nigeria, but especially in the cities of Congo like Kinshasa, and other major population centers with their huge sprawling slums and abysmal sanitation. From there, since there is no vaccine available, all we now have are experimental drugs, the disease will (will) spread in every direction. It can be contained to great extent in developed countries like the USA but otherwise, LOOK OUT. Containment cannot be anything like 100%. This could get very bad. He also said that we are getting really bad "information" even from reputable sources like the NYT and also, on some matters, from the CDC. Trouble is that not nearly enough research has been done to know, for example, with any certainty, whether the Ebola pathogen can be transmitted in the air, as by coughing, for instance, despite all kinds of public assurances that it can only be spread through bodily fluids. Which is only to provide a sketch of what he said. Bottom line: This is very serious and we are only in the beginning phase of the epidemic. Billy
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