Informative research article. One serious problem with it is that
in discussing non-Christian faiths in America it lumps together
everyone, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists, etc. Granted this total demographic
only accounts for 7 million votes now, but this is changing as
more and more Asians become US citizens -while the Jewish
population, 2% of the grand total, remains fairly static.
Jews did give Democrats somewhat more votes than
in 2014, but the real story concerns what is happening
among people originally from India, Viet Nam, Korea, etc,
each of which is growing in size. Subtract Jews from non-Christian
faiths and you get a different picture.
Otherwise a very worthwhile article.
Billy
----------------------
World Wide Religious News
Notional Christians: The Big Election Story in 2016
"Barna," December 1, 2016
The 2016 presidential election cycle will long be remembered for the drama
it created—including the social unrest that has taken place since Donald
Trump was declared the winner. The Republican victory shocked millions of
Americans, but millions more were elated by the outcome—one that surprised
the mainstream media and political pundits alike.
Religion played a significant role in the election, from the activity of
dozens of national religious leaders, to the importance of various
faith-related issues, to the high level of turnout among key segments of
faith-driven voters. This is the first of several summaries based on Barna
Group’s
election survey concerning the role that faith played in this historic
political contest.
Strong Evangelical Turnout
Although official turnout statistics for the election will not be
available for a while, the most reliable estimate suggests that the national
turnout among voting-eligible people was exactly the same as in 2012, at a
shade
under 59 percent.
Barna’s research shows that there were slight differences in turnout among
the major faith segments it tracked. The highest turnout was among
evangelicals, at 61 percent. That was slightly higher than occurred among both
non-evangelical born again Christians (58%) and notional Christians (59%). All
three of those Christian segments showed up at the polls in marginally
higher proportions than was true among the primary non-Christian segments:
people aligned with non-Christian faiths (57%) and the no-faith group (57%).
Compared to the 2012 Barna Group election data, there were small but
meaningful differences this time around. During the Obama-Romney contest, 59
percent of evangelicals turned out to vote, along with 60 percent of
non-evangelical born again Christians and 55 percent of notional Christians.
As was
also the pattern this year, people associated with non-Christian faiths
were less likely to show up (48%) while the atheist-agnostic-no faith
coalition – a segment known as the skeptics – was the least likely of these
niches
to cast a ballot (40%).
When considering the absolute number of votes produced by each faith
segment, the influence of each group changes substantially. Evangelicals
provided 10 million votes; non-evangelical born again voters produced 33
million;
and notional Christians delivered 58 million. Adults representing
non-Christian faiths generated 7 million ballots cast, and the skeptic segment
was
responsible for 28 million votes.
Compared to the 2012 election, the aggregate born again population
produced eight million fewer votes in 2016 despite having a slightly higher
turnout rate and the national population having expanded by about five million
people. The decline in the number of votes cast is because the proportion of
voting born again adults dropped from 37 percent to 31 percent.
The number of votes from citizens who did not associate with Christianity
skyrocketed from 20 million in 2012 to 35 million in 2016. In this case
there are two explanations for the jump. First, the proportion of the
population in this category rose from 20 percent to 24 percent during the last
four
years. Second, the turnout rates of these people also increased, from a
combined 41 percent in 2012 to 57 percent in 2016. That increased their share
of the total number of votes cast from 16 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in
2016.
Candidate Support
As was expected, the five faith segments had distinctly different
candidate preferences.
Evangelicals emerged as one of Donald Trump’s most ardent bases of
support. Nearly four out of five (79%) voted for Trump, compared to 18 percent
siding with Hillary Clinton, providing the Republican candidate with better
than a four-to-one margin. Non-evangelical born again Christians also gave
the President-elect a comfortable margin, 56 percent to 35 percent. The
remaining Christian-leaning segment, the notional Christians, essentially
split
their vote, providing Trump with a scant two-point preference (49% to 47%).
Among the non-Christian groups, Clinton was the clear preference. When it
comes to the voters who associated with a non-Christian faith, 71 percent
selected her while only 20 percent backed Trump. Skeptics also preferred
Clinton but by a smaller margin (60% to 27%).
While some media analysts have claimed that the evangelical vote for Trump
was unusually large, the survey data do not support that claim. The 79
percent that evangelicals awarded to the GOP nominee was actually the lowest
level of evangelical support for a Republican candidate since Bob Dole lost
to Bill Clinton in 1996, garnering 74 percent of their support. The 79
percent figure earned by Trump in this election was slightly lower than the 81
percent given to Mitt Romney in 2012. Which was previously the lowest level
of evangelical support for a Republican candidate since Dole.
Looking at the aggregate born again vote – that is, the combined votes of
evangelicals and non-evangelical born again adults – Trump’s 61 percent to
32 percent advantage over Clinton provided him with a larger cushion than
was given to the Republican hopefuls in the previous five elections (which
averaged a 59% to 40% result). In other words, the 29 percentage point
victory he earned over Clinton this year was substantially bigger than the
average 19-point gap that GOP candidates enjoyed in elections since 1996.
While the media have made a big deal about the prolific level of
evangelical support won by Trump, the real story may be elsewhere. Barna’s
research
indicates that perhaps the most significant faith group in relation to the
Trump triumph was notional Christians. These individuals – who consider
themselves to be Christian, typically attend a Christian church, but are not
born again – have supported the Democratic candidate in every election since
1996. On average, notionals have given the Democratic candidate 58 percent
of their votes. That trend was broken this year as Hillary Clinton took
just 47 percent of the group’s votes while Trump was awarded 49 percent.
Given that notionals are by far the largest of the five faith segments, that
transition was a game changer for the Republicans.
The Barna survey also revealed that Protestants gave Trump 58 percent of
their votes and Clinton received only 36 percent. Catholics split their
vote, awarding 48 percent to each candidate. This is the first election in the
last 20 years in which the Catholic vote was not won by the Democratic
candidate.
Last Two Months Turned It Around
Upon comparing the data from a national poll by Barna Group in early
September with the election survey conducted in November, the differences show
what a difference two months can make in the minds of voters.
There was minor movement toward Donald Trump during those two months among
both evangelicals (an eight-point gain in his lead over Clinton) and
non-evangelical born again Christians (a three-point increase in his lead).
Surprisingly, Trump’s biggest jump in support during the home stretch came
from notional Christians. While that segment preferred Clinton by 12
points in September, they wound up siding with Trump by a two-point
differential. That represents a 14-point gain in the final two months among
the
numerically-largest pool of religious voters.
Clinton finished strongly, in terms of total votes received, partially
because of a huge rise in support among people aligned with non-Christian
faiths. Her margin of preference increased among that group from seven points
in September to a whopping 51 points on Election Day – a 44-point climb in
eight weeks! Unfortunately for her campaign, the other-faith segment was the
smallest of the five primary faith segments, rendering that growth in
support significant but not enough to seal the deal.
Another shocking twist during the last two months was the shift of
allegiance to Trump among atheists and agnostics. Trump gained 10 percentage
points on Clinton among this group.
Votes from Other Segments
The survey included an assessment of the voting behavior of several other
segments that had some religious overtones. None of them were evenly
divided in their preference: each group had a clear favorite in the race.
Those
groups, each determined by respondents classifying themselves as fitting the
description in question, included the following:
* Pro-life advocates. Overall, 44 percent of voters said they fit
this description. They were more than twice as likely to vote for Trump (64%)
as Clinton (29%).
* Theological conservatives. Three out of ten people associated with
this label, and they supported Trump by better than a 3-to-1 ratio (71% to
23%).
* Environmentalists. Four out of every ten respondents embraced this
label. They supported Clinton by a 52 percent to 38 percent preference.
* Tea Party supporters. Only 21 percent of the respondents adopted
this label. However, the group was fervently behind Trump, 85 percent to 15
percent.
* Advocates of LGBT rights. While the LGBT community is estimated to
be only 4 percent of the population, ten times as many voters (41%) say
they are advocates for the rights of that segment. They preferred Clinton by
better than a 2-to-1 margin (63% to 28%).
* Believe absolute moral truth exists. Half of all voters (52%)
aligned with this concept. They also preferred Trump by a considerable margin
(53% to 34%).
* Support traditional moral values. Surprisingly, seven out of ten
voters (71%) said they fit in this category. Most of them voted for Trump
(53% versus 35%).
*
Christians Made the Difference
According to researcher George Barna, who is serving as a special analyst
for the company’s 2016 election polling, the voting results show an unusual
faith-related division. “Voters who considered themselves to be Christian
were more likely to vote for Trump than Clinton. Those who were not
associated with the Christian faith were overwhelmingly behind Clinton. Each
of
the three Christian segments – evangelicals, non-evangelical born agains, and
notional Christians – went with Trump. Both of the non-Christian segments –
those associated with other faiths as well as the skeptics – were in
Clinton’s camp. Just as the candidates displayed vastly different political
orientations, the voters who lined up behind each of them reflected many of
those same differences.”
The role of faith in this election was inescapable, the founder and former
owner of the research company explains. “Think about all of the
significant faith-driven events in the campaign. Eight evangelicals ran for
the GOP
nomination. There were high-profile meetings featuring the major candidates
with large groups of faith leaders. Big Data targeting efforts focused upon
voters’ faith inclination were employed. Key issues in the race, such as
the Supreme Court nominations, abortion, and religious liberty, were
intimately related to peoples’ religious perspectives and passions. Numerous
churches and religious coalitions held prayer rallies and fasting vigils. Like
it or not, the importance of peoples’ faith was front and center in this
election.
“The mainstream media got a lot of things wrong in this election regarding
their assessment of the role of faith,” Barna continued. “One of those
misdiagnoses was their assertion that the election featured a record-breaking
turnout among evangelicals. While their turnout was strong, it was not
record-breaking. In fact, evangelicals’ concern over the character of both
candidates kept many of them from choosing a candidate until very late in the
process, and a higher-than-usual proportion of them voted for the more
liberal candidate.”
Barna concludes by identifying a telling factor in the election. “There
has been no discussion about the fact that the skeptic vote really kept
Hillary Clinton in the race. The 33-point margin she retained with that
one-fifth slice of the voting population was her primary faith base. The size
of
the skeptic population continues to grow while the born again community
continues to shrink. That is a trend that will be a major challenge for
conservative and Republican candidates in the future.”
About the Research
This research was conducted by Barna Group using an online survey with a
nationally representative sample of adults 18 and older. A total of 1,281
adults were interviewed, resulting in 1,134 registered voters participating
in the survey. The survey was completed online in two waves, fielded from
November 4 through 6, 2016, and then from November 9 through 16, 2016. The
estimated maximum sampling error for the aggregate sample is plus or minus 4
percentage points at the 95-percent confidence level. The sampling error
estimate is higher for subgroups within the total sample.
The study divided respondents into five unique faith segments based on
their religious beliefs. The segments were defined as follows:
Evangelicals met nine specific theological criteria. They say they have
made “a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their
life today,” that their faith is very important in their life today;
believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they have confessed
their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as their Savior; strongly believe they
have a personal responsibility to share their religious beliefs about Christ
with non-Christians; firmly believe that Satan exists; strongly believe
that eternal salvation is possible only through grace, not works; strong agree
that Jesus Christ lived a sinless life on earth; strong assert that the
Bible is accurate in all the principles it teaches; and describing God as the
all-knowing, all-powerful, perfect deity who created the universe and still
rules it today. Being classified as an evangelical is not dependent on
church attendance, the denominational affiliation of the church attended or
self-identification. Respondents were not asked to describe themselves as “
evangelical.”
Non-evangelical born again Christians say they have made “a personal
commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today” and
believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they have confessed
their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as their Savior. However, they do not
accept all of the remaining seven conditions that categorize someone as an
evangelical.
Notional Christians are people who consider themselves to be Christian
but they have not made “a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still
important in their life today” or believe that when they die they will go to
Heaven because they have confessed their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as
their Savior.
The Other faith segment refers to individuals who associate with a faith
other than Christianity. Among the most common of those faith groups
included within that segment were Judaism, Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism.
Skeptics are individuals who describe themselves as atheist or agnostic,
or who indicate that they do not believe in the existence of God or have no
faith-related ties or interests.
--
--
Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community
<[email protected]>
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/RadicalCentrism
Radical Centrism website and blog: http://RadicalCentrism.org
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Centroids: The Center of the Radical Centrist Community" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to [email protected].
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
