https://www.cjr.org/analysis/fake-news-media-election-trump.php

Don’t blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media.

Photo by Joe Raedle/AFP/Getty Images
Since the 2016 presidential election, an increasingly familiar narrative has 
emerged concerning the unexpected victory of Donald Trump. Fake news, much of 
it produced by Russian sources, was amplified on social networks such as 
Facebook and Twitter, generating millions of views among a segment of the 
electorate eager to hear stories about Hillary Clinton’s untrustworthiness, 
unlikeability, and possibly even criminality. “Alt-right” news sites like 
Breitbart and The Daily Caller supplemented the outright manufactured 
information with highly slanted and misleading coverage of their own. The 
continuing fragmentation of the media and the increasing ability of Americans 
to self-select into like-minded “filter bubbles” exacerbated both phenomena, 
generating a toxic brew of political polarization and skepticism toward 
traditional sources of authority.

Alarmed by these threats to their legitimacy, and energized by the election of 
a president hostile to their very existence, the mainstream media has 
vigorously shouldered the mantle of truth-tellers. The Washington Post changed 
its motto to “Democracy Dies in Darkness” one month into the Trump presidency, 
and The New York Times launched a major ad campaign reflecting the nuanced and 
multifaceted nature of truth during the Oscars broadcast in February. Headline 
writers now explicitly spell out falsehoods rather than leaving it to the 
ensuing text. And journalists are quick to call out false equivalence, as when 
President Trump compared Antifa protesters to Nazis and heavily armed white 
supremacists following the violence in Charlottesville.

ICYMI: What Charlie Rose, Bill O’Reilly, and Glenn Thrush all have in common

At the same time, journalists have stepped up their already vigorous critiques 
of technology companies—Facebook in particular, but also Google and 
Twitter—highlighting the potential ways in which algorithms and social sharing 
have merged to spread misinformation. Many of the mainstream media’s worst 
fears were reinforced by a widely cited BuzzFeed article reporting that the 20 
most-shared fake news articles on Facebook during the final three months of the 
campaign outperformed the 20 most-shared “real news” articles published over 
the same period. Numerous stories have reported on the manipulation of 
Facebook’s ad system by Russian-affiliated groups. Lawmakers such as Senator 
Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, have been prominently profiled on 
account of their outspoken criticism of the tech industry, and even Facebook’s 
own employees have reportedly expressed anxiety over their company’s role in 
the election. 

The various Clinton-related email scandals accounted for more sentences than 
all of Trump’s scandals combined.

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We agree that fake news and misinformation are real problems that deserve 
serious attention. We also agree that social media and other online 
technologies have contributed to deep-seated problems in democratic discourse 
such as increasing polarization and erosion of support for traditional sources 
of authority. Nonetheless, we believe that the volume of reporting around fake 
news, and the role of tech companies in disseminating those falsehoods, is both 
disproportionate to its likely influence in the outcome of the election and 
diverts attention from the culpability of the mainstream media itself.

To begin with, the breathlessly repeated numbers on fake news are not as large 
as they have been made to seem when compared to the volume of information to 
which online users are exposed. For example, a New York Times story reported 
that Facebook identified more than 3,000 ads purchased by fake accounts traced 
to Russian sources, which generated over $100,000 in advertising revenue. But 
Facebook’s advertising revenue in the fourth quarter of 2016 was $8.8 billion, 
or $96 million per day. All together, the fake ads accounted for roughly 0.1 
percent of Facebook’s daily advertising revenue. The 2016 BuzzFeed report that 
received so much attention claimed that the top 20 fake news stories on 
Facebook “generated 8,711,000 shares, reactions, and comments” between August 1 
and Election Day. Again, this sounds like a large number until it’s put into 
perspective: Facebook had well over 1.5 billion active monthly users in 2016. 
If each user took only a single action per day on average (likely an 
underestimate), then throughout those 100 days prior to the election, the 20 
stories in BuzzFeed’s study would have accounted for only 0.006 percent of user 
actions.

Even recent claims that the “real” numbers were much higher than initially 
reported do not change the basic imbalance. For example, an October 3 New York 
Times story reported that “Russian agents…disseminated inflammatory posts that 
reached 126 million users on Facebook, published more than 131,000 messages on 
Twitter and uploaded over 1,000 videos to Google’s YouTube service.” Big 
numbers indeed, but several paragraphs later the authors concede that over the 
same period Facebook users were exposed to 11 trillion posts—roughly 87,000 for 
every fake exposure—while on Twitter the Russian-linked election tweets 
represented less than 0.75 percent of all election-related tweets. On YouTube, 
meanwhile, the total number of views of fake Russian videos was around 
309,000—compared to the five billion YouTube videos that are watched every day.

ICYMI: NYTimes editor apologizes after article sparks outrage 

In addition, given what is known about the impact of online information on 
opinions, even the high-end estimates of fake news penetration would be 
unlikely to have had a meaningful impact on voter behavior. For example, a 
recent study by two economists, Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow, estimates 
that “the average US adult read and remembered on the order of one or perhaps 
several fake news articles during the election period, with higher exposure to 
pro-Trump articles than pro-Clinton articles.” In turn, they estimate that “if 
one fake news article were about as persuasive as one TV campaign ad, the fake 
news in our database would have changed vote shares by an amount on the order 
of hundredths of a percentage point.” As the authors acknowledge, fake news 
stories could have been more influential than this back-of-the-envelope 
calculation suggests for a number of reasons (e.g., they only considered a 
subset of all such stories; the fake stories may have been concentrated on 
specific segments of the population, who in turn could have had a 
disproportionate impact on the election outcome; fake news stories could have 
exerted more influence over readers’ opinions than campaign ads). Nevertheless, 
their influence would have had to be much larger—roughly 30 times as large—to 
account for Trump’s margin of victory in the key states on which the election 
outcome depended.

It seems incredible that only five out of 150 front-page articles that The New 
York Times ran over the last, most critical months of the election, attempted 
to compare the candidate’s policies, while only 10 described the policies of 
either candidate in any detail.

Finally, the sheer outrageousness of the most popular fake stories—Pope Francis 
endorsing Trump; Democrats planning to impose Islamic law in Florida; Trump 
supporters chanting “We hate Muslims, we hate blacks;” and so on—made them 
especially unlikely to have altered voters’ pre-existing opinions of the 
candidates. Notwithstanding polls that show almost 50 percent of Trump 
supporters believed rumors that Hillary Clinton was running a pedophilia sex 
ring out of a Washington, DC pizzeria, such stories were most likely consumed 
by readers who already agreed with their overall sentiment and shared them 
either to signal their “tribal allegiance” or simply for entertainment value, 
not because they had been persuaded by the stories themselves.

As troubling as the spread of fake news on social media may be, it was unlikely 
to have had much impact either on the election outcome or on the more general 
state of politics in 2016. A potentially more serious threat is what a team of 
Harvard and MIT researchers refer to as “a network of mutually reinforcing 
hyper-partisan sites that revive what Richard Hofstadter called ‘the paranoid 
style in American politics,’ combining decontextualized truths, repeated 
falsehoods, and leaps of logic to create a fundamentally misleading view of the 
world.” Unlike the fake news numbers highlighted in much of the post-election 
coverage, engagement with sites like Breitbart News, InfoWars, and The Daily 
Caller are substantial—especially in the realm of social media.

Nevertheless, a longer and more detailed report by the same researchers shows 
that by any reasonable metric—including Facebook or Twitter shares, but also 
referrals from other media sites, number of published stories, etc.—the media 
ecosystem remains dominated by conventional (and mostly left-of-center) sources 
such as The Washington Post, The New York Times, HuffPost, CNN, and Politico.

Given the attention these very same news outlets have lavished, post-election, 
on fake news shared via social media, it may come as a surprise that they 
themselves dominated social media traffic. While it may have been the case that 
the 20 most-shared fake news stories narrowly outperformed the 20 most-shared 
“real news” stories, the overall volume of stories produced by major newsrooms 
vastly outnumbers fake news. According to the same report, “The Washington Post 
produced more than 50,000 stories over the 18-month period, while The New York 
Times, CNN, and Huffington Post each published more than 30,000 stories.” 
Presumably not all of these stories were about the election, but each such 
story was also likely reported by many news outlets simultaneously. A rough 
estimate of thousands of election-related stories published by the mainstream 
media is therefore not unreasonable.

In just six days, The New York Times ran as many cover stories about Hillary 
Clinton’s emails as they did about all policy issues combined in the 69 days 
leading up to the election.

What did all these stories talk about? The research team investigated this 
question, counting sentences that appeared in mainstream media sources and 
classifying each as detailing one of several Clinton- or Trump-related issues. 
In particular, they classified each sentence as describing either a scandal 
(e.g., Clinton’s emails, Trump’s taxes) or a policy issue (Clinton and jobs, 
Trump and immigration). They found roughly four times as many Clinton-related 
sentences that described scandals as opposed to policies, whereas Trump-related 
sentences were one-and-a-half times as likely to be about policy as scandal. 
Given the sheer number of scandals in which Trump was implicated—sexual 
assault; the Trump Foundation; Trump University; redlining in his real-estate 
developments; insulting a Gold Star family; numerous instances of racist, 
misogynist, and otherwise offensive speech—it is striking that the media 
devoted more attention to his policies than to his personal failings. Even more 
striking, the various Clinton-related email scandals—her use of a private email 
server while secretary of state, as well as the DNC and John Podesta 
hacks—accounted for more sentences than all of Trump’s scandals combined 
(65,000 vs. 40,000) and more than twice as many as were devoted to all of her 
policy positions.

To reiterate, these 65,000 sentences were written not by Russian hackers, but 
overwhelmingly by professional journalists employed at mainstream news 
organizations, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall 
Street Journal. To the extent that voters mistrusted Hillary Clinton, or 
considered her conduct as secretary of state to have been negligent or even 
potentially criminal, or were generally unaware of what her policies contained 
or how they may have differed from Donald Trump’s, these numbers suggest their 
views were influenced more by mainstream news sources than by fake news.


Count of sentences that appeared in mainstream media sources (e.g., The New 
York Times, The Washington Post, HuffPost, CNN) that were classified as 
describing either a scandal or a policy issue related to either Trump or 
Clinton. Reprinted from Rob Faris et al “Partisanship, Propaganda, and 
Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election,” 
published by the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard 
University.

To shed more light on this possibility, we conducted an in-depth analysis of a 
single media source, The New York Times. We chose the Times for two reasons: 
First, because its broad reach both among policy elites and ordinary citizens 
means that the Times has singular influence on public debates; and second, 
because its reputation for serious journalism implies that if the Times did not 
inform its readers of the issues, then it is unlikely such information was 
widely available anywhere.

We gathered two datasets that captured the Times’s coverage of the final stage 
of the 2016 presidential election. The first dataset comprised all articles 
that appeared on the front page of the printed newspaper (399 total) over the 
last 69 days of the campaign, beginning on September 1 and ending on November 8 
(Election Day). The second comprised all of the 13,481 articles published 
online by the Times over the same period. In both datasets, we first identified 
all articles that were relevant to the election campaign. We then further 
categorized each of these articles as belonging to one of three categories: 
Campaign Miscellaneous, Personal/Scandal, and Policy. Within Personal/Scandal 
we then further classified the article as focused on Clinton or Trump, and 
within Policy classified it as one of the following: Policy no details, Policy 
Clinton details, Policy Trump details, and Policy both details (more details on 
our methodology can be found here):

Campaign Miscellaneous articles focused on the “horse race” elements of the 
campaign, such as the overall likelihood of victory of the candidates, details 
of intra-party conflicts, or the mobilization of specific demographic groups. 
For example, an October 12 story with the headline “Republican Split Over Trump 
Puts States into Play,” which described how Clinton’s campaign was taking 
advantage of Trump’s battle with the Republican Party. (Note: Hyperlinks point 
to online versions of the stories described, which were typically published the 
day before the print versions and may have different headlines) This article 
was manifestly about the campaign, but treated it mostly as a contest in which 
a dramatic twist had just taken place. It contained little information that 
would have helped potential voters understand the candidates’ policy positions 
and hence their respective agendas as president.
Personal/Scandal articles focused on the controversial actions and/or 
statements of the candidates either during the election itself or prior to it, 
as well as on the fallout generated by those controversies. An example of the 
former would be an October 8 article “Tape Reveals Trump Boast About Groping 
Women,” which discussed the infamous Access Hollywood An example of the latter 
would be an October 29 article, “New Emails Jolt Clinton Campaign in Race’s 
Last Days,” which discussed the impact of the reopening of a FBI investigation 
into Clinton’s private email server on the campaign. In addition, we classified 
each Personal/Scandal article as being primarily about Clinton (e.g., emails, 
Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation) or Trump (e.g., sexual harassment, Trump 
University, Trump Foundation, etc.).
Policy articles mentioned policy issues such as healthcare, immigration, 
taxation, abortion, or education. Articles coded as Policy No Details mentioned 
policy issues as impacting the campaign, but did not describe the actual 
policies of the candidates. For example, an October 26 article, “Growing Costs 
of Health Law Pose a Late Test” described Donald Trump attacking Hillary 
Clinton over health premium increases, but did not mention the policy proposals 
of the two candidates, nor did it note that due to subsidies the hikes would 
not affect the actual price paid by 86 percent of people in marketplaces. 
Policy Clinton Details or Policy Trump Details counted articles that mentioned 
specifics of the Clinton or Trump platforms respectively but not both, while 
Policy Both Details compared the specifics of the two candidates’ platforms. 
For example, an October 3 article, “Next President Likely To Shape Health Law 
Fate,” noted that Clinton had endorsed “a new government-sponsored health plan, 
the so-called public option, to give consumers an additional choice.” It also 
noted that “Donald J. Trump and Republicans in Congress would go in the 
direction of less government, reducing federal regulation and requirements so 
insurance would cost less and no-frills options could proliferate. Mr. Trump 
would, for example, encourage greater use of health savings accounts, allow 
insurance policies to be purchased across state lines and let people take tax 
deductions for insurance premium payments.”
Of the 150 front-page articles that discussed the campaign in some way, we 
classified slightly over half (80) as Campaign Miscellaneous. Slightly over a 
third (54) were Personal/Scandal, with 29 focused on Trump and 25 on Clinton. 
Finally, just over 10 percent (16) of articles discussed Policy, of which six 
had no details, four provided details on Trump’s policy only, one on Clinton’s 
policy only, and five made some comparison between the two candidates’ 
policies. The results for the full corpus were similar: Of the 1,433 articles 
that mentioned Trump or Clinton, 291 were devoted to scandals or other personal 
matters while only 70 mentioned policy, and of these only 60 mentioned any 
details of either candidate’s positions. In other words, comparing the two 
datasets, the number of Personal/Scandal stories for every Policy story ranged 
from 3.4 (for front-page stories) to 4.2. Further restricting to Policy stories 
that contained some detail about at least one candidate’s positions, these 
ratios rise to 5.5 and 4.85, respectively.

ICYMI: The story the NYTimes, BuzzFeed didn’t want to publish

The problem is this: As has become clear since the election, there were 
profound differences between the two candidates’ policies, and these 
differences are already proving enormously consequential to the American 
people. Under President Trump, the Affordable Care Act is being actively 
dismantled, environmental and consumer protections are being rolled back, 
international alliances and treaties are being threatened, and immigration 
policy has been thrown into turmoil, among other dramatic changes. In light of 
the stark policy choices facing voters in the 2016 election, it seems 
incredible that only five out of 150 front-page articles that The New York 
Times ran over the last, most critical months of the election, attempted to 
compare the candidate’s policies, while only 10 described the policies of 
either candidate in any detail.

Front-page New York Timesstories classified as about the campaign that focused 
primarily on personal scandals, policy, and miscellaneous matters:

Focus of front-page NYT stories on
the campaign
Ca…
Cli…
Tru…
Pol…
Cli…
Tru…
Both,
pol…
September
October
November
0
..
..
..
Total of front-page NYT campaign stories by focus
Campaign
misc.
Clinton -
personal/
scandal
Trump -
personal/
scandal
Policy, no detail
Clinton - policy
detail
Trump - policy
detail
Both, policy
detail
19.3%
16.7%
53.3%
New York Times stories classified in the same manner as above but drawn from 
the full corpus published at nytimes.com. These figures are qualitatively 
similar to those cited in a separate Harvard study, by Thomas E. Patterson, 
based on a broader sample and using a somewhat different methodology.

Total of nytimes.com campaign stories by focus
Mention Trump/
Clinton
Clinton -
personal/
scandal
Trump -
personal/
scandal
Policy, no detail
Clinton - policy
detail
Trump - policy
detail
Both, policy
detail
11.4%
79.9%
In this context, 10 is an interesting figure because it is also the number of 
front-page stories the Times ran on the Hillary Clinton email scandal in just 
six days, from October 29 (the day after FBI Director James Comey announced his 
decision to reopen his investigation of possible wrongdoing by Clinton) through 
November 3, just five days before the election. When compared with the Times’s 
overall coverage of the campaign, the intensity of focus on this one issue is 
extraordinary. To reiterate, in just six days, The New York Times ran as many 
cover stories about Hillary Clinton’s emails as they did about all policy 
issues combined in the 69 days leading up to the election (and that does not 
include the three additional articles on October 18, and November 6 and 7, or 
the two articles on the emails taken from John Podesta). This intense focus on 
the email scandal cannot be written off as inconsequential: The Comey incident 
and its subsequent impact on Clinton’s approval rating among undecided voters 
could very well have tipped the election.

Ten articles on the front page of The New York Times in a six-day period 
(October 29 to November 3, 2016), discussing the FBI investigation into 
Secretary Clinton’s use of a private email server. In the same time-period 
there were six front-page articles on the dynamics of the campaign, one piece 
on Trump’s business, and zero on public policy of candidates.

Turning now to the policy coverage, arguably no policy issue was more important 
during the election campaign, or more divisive, than the Affordable Care Act 
(aka Obamacare). It is therefore shocking (if not surprising) how uninformed 
many Americans were about the mechanics of the law or how successful it had 
been. In early 2017, for example, The Upshot, the data-centric subsection of 
The New York Times, published two pieces on Obamacare. The first, “One-Third 
Don’t Know Obamacare and Affordable Care Act Are the Same,” published on 
February 7, described some important misconceptions about Obamacare held by 
large percentages of the American public—for example, that almost 40 percent 
(and 47 percent of Republicans) did not know that repealing Obamacare would 
cause people to lose Medicaid coverage or subsidies for private insurance. The 
second, “No, Obamacare isn’t in a ‘Death Spiral,’” published on March 15, 2017, 
provided readers with some important details about how Obamacare works. For 
example, it noted that “because of how subsidies work, people were generally 
shielded from this year’s higher prices.” It also noted that while prices had 
gone up recently, they “were lower than expected in the first few years of the 
program.” The article then went on to describe an insurance market that could 
certainly use improvement, but concluded that the “Obamacare markets will 
remain stable over the long run, if there are no significant changes.”

These articles provide exactly the kind of analysis that would have helped 
Times readers understand the state of the ACA prior to the election. In 
contrast, the Times’s pre-election coverage of Obamacare was surprisingly 
sparse (we counted only four front-page stories between September 1 and 
November 8) and surprisingly negative. The first article, on October 3, creates 
almost the opposite impression of the optimistic post-election articles, 
stating “Mr. Obama’s signature domestic achievement will almost certainly have 
to change to survive.” Subsequent articles, appearing over a three-day period 
from October 25 to 27, were even more negative in tone: “Choices fall in health 
law as costs rise” declares the October 25 headline; “Growing costs of health 
law pose a late test;” and finally “Many prefer tax penalties to health law.” 
All four articles emphasized troubles in the insurance market, failing to 
mention that most policyholders have subsidized capped prices (and are 
therefore insulated from premium hikes), or that the government was spending 
less than anticipated, or that premiums were rising slower than before 
Obamacare. None of the articles mentions the Medicaid expansion, one of the 
most popular parts of the bill. 

All four front-page articles that touch on the Affordable Care Act (aka 
ObamaCare), published on (from left to right) October 3, 25, 26, 27.

Consistent with other studies of media coverage of the election, our analysis 
finds that The New York Times focused much more on “dramatic” issues like the 
horserace or personal scandals than on substantive policy issues. Moreover, 
when the paper did write about policy issues, it failed to mention important 
details, in some cases giving readers a misleading impression of the true state 
of affairs. If voters had wanted to educate themselves on issues such as 
healthcare, immigration, taxes, and economic policy—or how these issues would 
likely be affected by the election of either candidate as president—they would 
not have learned much from reading the Times. What they would have learned was 
that both candidates were plagued by scandal: Hillary Clinton over her use of a 
private email server for government business while secretary of state, as well 
as allegations of possible conflicts of interest in the Clinton Foundation; and 
Trump over his failure to release his tax returns; his past business dealings; 
Trump University; the Trump Foundation; accusations of sexual harassment and 
assault; and numerous misogynistic, racist, and otherwise offensive remarks. 
What they would also have learned about was the ever-fluctuating state of the 
horse race: who was up and who was down; who might turn out and who might not; 
and who was happy or unhappy with whom about what.

To be clear, we do not believe the the Times’s coverage was worse than other 
mainstream news organizations, so much as it was typical of a broader failure 
of mainstream journalism to inform audiences of the very real and consequential 
issues at stake. In retrospect, it seems clear that the press in general made 
the mistake of assuming a Clinton victory was inevitable, and were setting 
themselves as credible critics of the next administration. Possibly this 
mistake arose from the failure of journalists to get out of their “hermetic 
bubble.” Possibly it was their misinterpretation of available polling data, 
which showed all along that a Trump victory, albeit unlikely, was far from 
inconceivable. These were understandable mistakes, but they were still 
mistakes. Yet, rather than acknowledging the possible impact their collective 
failure of imagination could have had on the election outcome, the mainstream 
news community has instead focused its critical attention everywhere but on 
themselves: fake news, Russian hackers, technology companies, algorithmic 
ranking, the alt-right, even on the American public.

To be fair, journalists were not the only community to be surprised by the 
outcome of the 2016 election—a great many informed observers, possibly 
including the candidate himself, failed to take the prospect of a Trump victory 
seriously. Also to be fair, the difficulty of adequately covering a campaign in 
which the “rules of the game” were repeatedly upended must surely have been 
formidable. But one could equally argue that Facebook could not have been 
expected to anticipate the misuse of its advertising platform to seed fake news 
stories. And one could just as easily argue that the difficulties facing tech 
companies in trading off between complicity in spreading intentional 
misinformation on the one hand, and censorship on the other hand, are every bit 
as formidable as those facing journalists trying to cover Trump. For 
journalists to excoriate the tech companies for their missteps while barely 
acknowledging their own reveals an important blind spot in the journalistic 
profession’s conception of itself.

We have no doubt that journalists take seriously their mission to provide 
readers with the information they need in order to make informed decisions 
about matters of importance. We note, however, that this mission implicitly 
assumes that journalists are passive observers of events rather than active 
participants, whose choices about what to cover and how to cover it 
meaningfully influence the events in question. Given the disruption visited 
upon the print news business model since the beginning of the 21st century, 
journalists can perhaps be forgiven for seeing themselves as helpless 
bystanders in an information ecosystem that is increasingly centered on social 
media and search. But even if the news media has ceded much of its distribution 
power to technology companies, its longstanding ability to “set the 
agenda”—that is, to determine what counts as news to begin with—remains 
formidable. In sheer numerical terms, the information to which voters were 
exposed during the election campaign was overwhelmingly produced not by fake 
news sites or even by alt-right media sources, but by household names like The 
New York Times, The Washington Post, and CNN. Without discounting the role 
played by malicious Russian hackers and naïve tech executives, we believe that 
fixing the information ecosystem is at least as much about improving the real 
news as it about stopping the fake stuff.


Methodology

Analysis of front pages

Every front-page article was read by two researchers and coded for the three 
topline categories and their subcategories, using only the text that appeared 
on the actual front page (not on what may be continued on future pages). There 
was very little disagreement between the two researchers; for example, both 
researchers coded the same set of articles as covering policies of both 
candidates, and disagreed on only one article with respect to coverage of 
policy. For simplicity, the authors reviewed all disagreements together, by 
hand, and we reported from that dataset.

Analysis of the full corpus

What The New York Times puts on the front page of its print edition is 
important, but not necessarily representative of how many readers encounter the 
news, either because they navigate directly to individual articles from social 
media sources (mostly Facebook and Twitter), or because articles at nytimes.com 
can appear in different places at different times. To verify that our 
conclusions regarding coverage of the campaign on the front page was not 
totally unrepresentative of the paper as whole, we also coded the entire corpus 
of all articles published on nytimes.com during the same period. Because this 
sample is much larger (13,481 vs. 399), we coded them using a combination of 
machine classification and hand coding.

First, we scraped the headline and first paragraph, if provided by the API, for 
each Times article from September 1 through November 9, 2016, using the archive 
API for all articles that included the words “Clinton” or “Trump.” Note: This 
criterion included virtually all campaign-related articles, but may have also 
included potentially non-campaign related articles (e.g., about Bill Clinton or 
Ivanka Trump).
Next, we compiled a list of words (details below) delineating three categories 
of article: Campaign (focused on the horse race and how people react to 
events); Policy (focused on a policy issue); and Personal/Scandal. For each 
article, we checked if any of the words in the article began with one of the 
stems in our word list. For example, if an article contained the word 
“immigration,” we would first notice that it starts with “immigrat,” which is 
one of our policy words; thus we would mark it as a Policy article. For all 
articles marked as Policy, we then hand-coded them into the four subcategories 
and tossed articles into Campaign Miscellaneous if they did not actually cover 
any policy.
Finally, we hand-coded the Policy articles as Policy No Details, Policy Clinton 
Details, Policy Trump Details, or Policy Both Details using the same criteria 
as above.  
Word list for Clinton/Trump categories:

Clinton Personal/Scandal words: email, benghazi, foundation, road
Trump Personal/Scandal words: russia, foundation, university, woman, women, 
tax, sexual assault, golf, tape, kiss
Policy words for both candidates are taken from the list of issues covered by 
On the Issues: abortion, budget, civil rights, corporation, crime, drug, 
education, energy, oil, environment, family, families, children, foreign 
policy, trade, reform, government, gun, health, security, immigra, technology, 
job, principl, value, social security, war, peace, welfare, poverty, econom, 
immigrat, immigran
Campaign words for both candidates: fundraise, ads, advertisements, campaign, 
trail, rally, endors, outreach, ballot, vote, electoral, poll, donat, turnout, 
margin, swing state
ICYMI: Explosive BuzzFeed scoop raises eyebrows

A version of this paper will be presented at “Understanding and Addressing the 
Disinformation Ecosystem,” a conference to be held December 15-16, 2017, at the 
University of Pennsylvania Annenberg School of Communication, organized by 
Claire Wardle and Michael Delli Carpini and sponsored by the Knight Foundation. 
The authors are grateful to William Cai for valuable research assistance, and 
to Yochai Benkler and Matt Gentzkow for helpful comments and corrections.

Has America ever needed a media watchdog more than now? Help us by joining CJR 
today.
Duncan J. Watts and David M. Rothschild are the authors of this study. Duncan 
J. Watts is a principal researcher at Microsoft Research, A.D. White Professor 
at Large at Cornell University, and author of Everything is Obvious: Once You 
Know the Answer (Crown Business, 2011). David M. Rothschild is an economist at 
Microsoft Research, and founder of PredictWise.


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