Ernie:
This is exasperating, seriously exasperating.

Back in the 1950s my friend Bernie highly recommended a book

that was originally published in 1949, by U of Michigan professor,

Leslie White, The Science of Culture.  I purchased a paperback edition
from maybe 1955 or thereabouts. White's thesis has been with me ever since.


Here are some plaudits by an assortment of academics, etc, that should give you

some idea of the value of the book; skip reading them if you want

but at least look over the paragraph:


Leslie White was one of the most important and controversial figures in American

anthropology. This classic work, initially published in 1949, contains White's 
definitive

statement on what he termed "culturology." In his new prologue to this reprint 
of

the second edition, Robert Carneiro outlines the key events in White's life and 
career,

especially his championing of cultural evolutionism and cultural materialism. 
Praise from

readers "Republishing these pioneer articles now makes White's fundamental 
exposition

easily available to a new generation of social scientists." Richard N. Adams, 
University

of Texas "One of the best works ever produced by an anthropologist. White was a 
remarkable

thinker and his writings were filled with 'intellectual content.'" Lewis R. 
Binford, Southern

Methodist University "The enduring foundation of a science of culture is made 
supremely

accessible thanks to the lucidity of White's writing." Robert Bates Graber, 
Truman State

University "Written with a straightforward crispness. A welcome treat in an age

when obscurity is often confused with profundity." David Kaplan, Brandeis 
University...



There have been several editions in the years following, most recently in 2005.


Not that you can't pick a few bones with Dr White, but his main contention is 
hardly

arguable, namely, that any hot idea simply cannot remain any one person's 
property.

This is because of the dynamics of culture.  Ideas emerge "from the air," so to 
speak,

viz, from shared culture, and implications of even the germ of a new concept as 
it

becomes known when people talk about the ideas they encounter, or that follow

from implications of those ideas.  In other words, this seems to be the first

appearance of the"meme" concept even if it was not called that back in

the Eisenhower era.



Think of something as complicated as the calculus.  Newton invented it.

Or did he?  Unbeknownst to him, Leibniz was working on a parallel track and

also came up with the calculus at about the same time. Doubtless there were

still other deep thinkers at work on similar projects of their own, its just 
that

none of these "would be" calculus inventors needed to complete

their labors when news of Newton and Leibniz became known.


It is this way in just about every field.   The story of calculus is merely the

best known example of the effect.  White provided examples from a

variety of fields, medicine, engineering, philosophy, you  name it.

My hunch is that the exact same phenomenon exists within

the field of high tech, whether hardware inventions or

new kinds of software.


But you seem to be operating on the obsolete assumption that if you have

a hot idea and can't develop it now, all you need to do is hide it in
the basement and it will be there for you to exploit in 5 years
or 15 years, it doesn't matter. It is your brainchild, no-one else

can possibly have the same idea. It is safe with you.



That way of thinking is dysfunctional.  And its basic premise is false.

If you wait any length of time someone else inevitably will
come up with the same idea or something very similar.


The imperative is to be "first to market."


Why on earth isn't this obvious to you?


Maybe because it contradicts a theory you have about 10 year plans,

that you have all the time in the world and things can be taken care of

at some date that is personally convenient.  After all, no-one else

can possibly  have "your" idea,


But think of RC.  It was reinvented several times since the idea
was first dreamed up in ca. 1980.



This is part #1.



----------------------------------------


Part # 2 concerns the value of a viral video.


What is a viral video worth?  It depends, of course.

At a minimum it gives fame to the originator.  Many viral videos

don't lead to much else, sometimes we are discussing someone

who caught a lucky break with little or no sense of how to exploit

the video to best effect.


But, hell, what couldn't either of us do with a viral video?

With some serious thought such a video would provide you, or me,

with a fulcrum, a fixed point to move the world.


It isn't possible to accurately predict viral videos, there are too many 
variables,

but I think it is fair to say that the horse race idea at least has a chance to

go viral, all the ingredients are there.  And producing it would be fairly

straight-forward and cheap.


Heck, I'd do it all by myself except that my computer has no video camera and

no microphone.  But the idea is technically simple, just find  a public domain

video of a horse race and eliminate the sound track and supply a new sound 
track.

I think that production values count, that it would benefit from a good 
announcer

and some decent sound effects, but that is about all you would need.  This is 
not

like making an episode of Star Wars.


Not that you do not see the potential, but it is the usual Dr Ernie approach,

not "kick the can down the road," but kick the can into the next county

and maybe you will get to it in 5 years, or 10 years, it really doesn't matter.

Makes me want to pull out all my remaining hair.


What if Apple or Microsoft had the chance to sponsor a viral video?

Not a 100% chance of success, but far better than 50 / 50.

They'd say, "tell you what, that's a good idea for our

product launch in 2023" ?????


They would???   Like hell they would.  They would be on it in a heartbeat

and you know it.



Frustrated in Oregon

BR



PS

Very frustrated.



































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