This document has been forwarded from the ReliefWeb site. Sender: Sjamsir Sjarif ([email protected])
Comment from Sjamsir Sjarif :
Saya forwardkan article ini untuk kita pahamkan untuk keselamatan bersama.
Salam,
-- MakNgah
Sjamsir Sjarif
Source: Integrated Regional Information Networks
Date: 27 Nov 2009
JAKARTA, 27 November 2009 (IRIN) - Predicting earthquakes is an inexact
science - which is why disaster
preparedness remains key to
saving lives, scientists say.
Experts have forecast that a long
undersea faultline along
Indonesia's Sumatra Island is due
to produce a powerful and
devastating earthquake in the
next few decades.
Sections of the fault, called the
Sunda megathrust, have ruptured a
number of times over the past
decade, causing several
earthquakes in the region.
A major earthquake could trigger
a tsunami that could result in
casualties and damage equal to
the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami,
writes Kerry Sieh, a scientist at
the Earth Observatory of
Singapore, in an article made
available to IRIN.
"To those living in harm's way
[on] the coasts of western
Sumatra, it should be useful to
know that the next great
earthquake and tsunami are likely
to occur within the next few
decades, well within the
lifetimes of children and young
adults living there now," the
article states.
A magnitude 7.9 earthquake that
devastated West Sumatra province
and killed more than 1,100 people
on 30 September originated near
that faultline, according to
experts.
"We don't know when such a great
earthquake will happen. It could
be tomorrow, next year or the
next five years," said Fauzi,
head of the Earthquake Center at
the Meteorology and Geophysics
Agency in Jakarta, who like many
Indonesians only uses one name.
"It will be much more beneficial
if we focus on preparedness.
Earthquakes don't kill, but
collapsed buildings do," he told
IRIN.
Fauzi said between 1991 and 2009,
Indonesia was hit by 43 major
earthquakes, 15 of which
generated tsunamis. The 30
September quake in West Sumatra
resulted in a tsunami, though it
was very small, he said.
Predicting earthquakes is also a
sensitive issue in Indonesia and
false rumours could create panic,
Fauzi warned. "When scientists
say an earthquake with a
magnitude of 8.8 is likely to
occur based on scientific
findings, people refuse to go to
school or work and SMS
relatives," he said. "The public
talks about tomorrow, while
scientists talk about years."
Forecasting
Wahyu Triyoso, a geologist with
the Bandung Institute of
Technology, said the magnitude of
an earthquake correlates with the
size of the fault.
"If we could measure the amount
of slip precisely, probably we
could make rough estimates and we
can make necessary preparations,"
he told IRIN. "Forecasting means
little if we don't know the fault
size, the dimension, length and
width."
Triyoso said even though
knowledge of a potential
earthquake was useful for
scientists, it would be hard to
communicate to the general
public.
"If we say a certain place is
dangerous and the public panic,
it could become a social
disaster," he said. "So at the
moment, preparedness is the best
course of action," he said.
In West Sumatra, an NGO called
the Tsunami Alert Community
(Kogami) has been working to
instil a culture of preparedness
among the population since 2005.
Kogami has been providing
training on disaster preparedness
in schools and communities in the
provincial capital Padang,
teaching them what to do should
an earthquake and a tsunami hit.
The group has mapped out
evacuation routes, with high-risk
areas zoned red, while low-risk
areas are zoned yellow.
It is introducing similar
programmes in other districts in
cooperation with other NGOs.
"Many people [live] in fear
because they have received little
information about earthquakes and
what to do when a disaster
happens," said Patra Rina Dewi,
Kogami's executive director.
"We know we live in an earthquake
zone and our job is to equip
people with necessary knowledge,"
she said.
atp/ds/mw
[END]
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