RE: [RBW] Re: Group Riding / New Covid-19 World

[Bruce Herbitter]

I look at the total # of resolved cases (either died or recovered) which gives a mortality rate currently around 10%. About that same as SARS which is also a Corona Virus but less contagious. Expectation is that 40% - 70% of the US population will get it at some point.  Unfortunately, we have no idea how accurate any of the data is right now.  Kind of sobering.  (8,411 deaths and 84,121 recoveries as I type this)   Bruce   Sent from Mail for Windows 10   From: Nick Payne Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2020 10:52 PM To: RBW Owners Bunch Subject: [RBW] Re: Group Riding / New Covid-19 World   Present US population ~330 million. On Johns Hopkins figures (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) so far from COVID-19 there are ~8800 deaths from 218000 cases - that's about 4% death rate. If half the US population gets this in the next 12 months, which is a reasonable ballpark figure given that there is no immunity and no vaccine, even if we say that the death rate is really only 2%, because a lot of mild cases have been missed, you still have 330,000,000 / 2 * 0.02 = 3.3 million deaths... Extrapolate that to the world population, and you get about 60 million dead - pretty much the same as the Spanish flu in 1918-20. On Sunday, 15 March 2020 08:27:03 UTC+11, Deacon Patrick wrote: In 2017-18 there were 80,000 deaths from the flu in the US. 900,000 people went to the hospital because of the flu. Per: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/last-years-flu-broke-records-for-deaths-and-illnesses-new-cdc-numbers-show/2018/09/26/97cb43fc-c0ed-11e8-90c9-23f963eea204_story.html   Make of that what you will. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to a topic in the Google Groups "RBW Owners Bunch" group. To unsubscribe from this topic, visit https://groups.google.com/d/topic/rbw-owners-bunch/6UcP-pX6JZ4/unsubscribe. To unsubscribe from this group and all its topics, send an email to rbw-owners-bunch+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/rbw-owners-bunch/2052da13-3c25-4459-9ccc-0ee5c66b701a%40googlegroups.com.   -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "RBW Owners Bunch" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to rbw-owners-bunch+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/rbw-owners-bunch/5e73353e.1c69fb81.7e99.7098%40mx.google.com.