I have a lot of respect for Bill, not just because he sometimes agrees with
me (smile), but because he worked at Davis California PVUSA and other places
and saw a lot of innovative, but flawed PV. He knows first-hand that dozens
of PV companies and/or products have come and gone in the search for the
$0.10/kWh holy grail.
I wish the Chinese well, but am concerned about the wisdom of buying Chinese
modules. On the one hand, I welcome China into the league of nations and
support their progress toward democracy. Hopefully, Chinese national and
local dictators will grow up and become civilized. On the other hand, latest
reports from China, according to Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson,
is that Chinese solar module factory workers are willing to work for
little-to-no-pay. There's a big difference between "volunteering" in the war
of economic imperialism against the West and the volunteer work Wrenches
perform in their communities and around the world.
But back to nuts-and-volts. Last year China became the largest producer of
crystalline silicon solar cells. Although some companies admit that their
modules are made in China, few companies with factories outside of China say
they build their modules with cells outsourced from China. This is not all
bad news because crystalline silicon cells are some of the most stable
products ever made. However, you do have to protect yourself and your
customers' investments, especially if you are a California contractor
required to give 10-year system warranties. I recommend getting each
module's IV curve, keeping the IV curves in your customer file, performing
pre-installation tests (at least Voc and Isc), and performing annual systems
inspections and tests. Look for cell-tab corrosion, front and backsheet
delamination, and discoloration. Most customers will pay to see you once a
year if your manner is professional and your service charge is reasonable.
Joel Davidson
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bill Brooks" <[email protected]>
To: "'RE-wrenches'" <[email protected]>
Sent: Saturday, June 06, 2009 10:19 PM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] Chinese solar cells and modules and pricing
All,
How many of these Chinese manufacturers will still be in existence in 5
years (probably less than half)? Are you really willing to risk a company
and reputation for a few pennies per watt? Certainly several of the big
companies are likely to survive, but you are playing a new game of
"Chinese
roulette" with many of these companies.
These are manufacturing companies, not stable companies with a long past
and
future. The value proposition is so dramatically different from a major
company to one of these Chinese manufacturing companies to make the
comparison nearly idiotic. Most of the installers using these products
have
way more guts than I have. Many will find their guts on the ground as the
get disemboweled by bad choices. Don't you love the imagery.
Yingli's one of the big companies now, they might survive. I'm sure they
are
learning every month that they proceed how to better manufacture modules.
They have been a player for two years--no major problems--YET. How does a
year in the field show that a company is doing everything correctly? Oh,
and
their fuse size is 10 amps on an 8 amp Isc module. They obviously are not
all that sophisticated.
Folks, you need to let the dumb contractors screw up and buy the cheap
stuff. Now, more than ever, you have to sell on brand. The more the young
Chinese stuff gets in the field and craps out, the worse our industry is
going to take it on the chin in the public eye. It's just not worth the
price difference. As Joel points out, let the multi-MW projects make the
stupid mistakes--that will just scare away the capital investment--oh wait
a
minute--we really need that.
Bill.
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