I am a very small solar bozo in the woods of NE CA, but I have a $.02 burning a
hole in my pocket. Jim's comment struck a nerve:
"I don’t know how to bring that about but you can imagine how installed costs
would benefit if inverter prices dropped 50% and PV prices rose 10%".
I don't know, the Walmart mentality of "the lowest price" apparently has driven
what used to be a fairly robust USA PV manufacturing business to China/Asia.
We'll have to see how wonderful of a thing that is when in 3,5,10, 15 years all
these "popcorn" Chinese PV's (up until last year, every time I opened a
periodical I'd see 5 or 6 new PV companies pop up) begin to have problems.
Problems?? O mama... some of the big boys of the recent past have had their
share of failed/defective/diode/whatever problems with some of their mods. My
impression is most of these were warranty-honored. Are we thinking as we're
(well, not me) installing another array of Chinese made wafers, cells, mods
that they will be better quality that the US, Japan, German made PVs of the
past? Will they be around when they are needed in the future for replacements?
I think increasing PV prices 10% is great as it means less attrition and a
chance for more companies to survive and compete.
What's the difference, say the county government right next door to
yours offered 10 shiny new installers to relocate to their county by giving
them tax breaks, no-interest loans and free land. They give bids 25% lower
than what you're used to getting, you drop your prices, get less jobs. Hmm,
are their installs as well designed and durable as yours? probably not but
many more installs are happening. We're back to that 3,5,10, 15 years down the
road thing.
I'm no expert but I fear the rush to install Walmart quality equipment
while the well-financed (often government funded) manufacturers squeeze out the
rest, is sacraficing the most durable module. It's a pretty happy time now,
lots of installs, trips to the bank. Better hope there's not a rush to replace
failing equipment. Keep my inverter prices where they are, it makes me feel
better that they are probably making a solid, durable product, offer great
support, offer training, do research, keep stocked.
And dang doesn't it feel kind of funny to be supporting China's 7%
growth rate, their growing military, their push into space, their horrible
record on pollution. I'm willing to defend USA PV manufacturing by paying a
little more for PV. If we all did it, it would work, but here I am beating Wm
Korthof's dead horse.
Didn't somebody once say that you get what you pay for?
Done.
Bill Battagin
----- Original Message -----
From: Solarguy
To: 'RE-wrenches'
Sent: Saturday, April 26, 2014 8:05 PM
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] high efficiency modules in U.S.
Photon magazine and numerous other publications have pointed out one of the
most troubling results of the collapse of PV prices. That is the fact that the
manufacturers have been unable to compete on anything but low price.
Keep in mind that global research on PV [NREL et.al.] has not stopped just
because the wholesale & retail market is flat. New technology to increase
cell/module efficiency and reduce production costs will become affordable and
begin to return to the market only when margins begin to increase. As a result,
once those profits go up manufacturers will begin to invest in these new
technologies.
And when there is competition based on innovation and efficiencies, not just
low prices, we’ll see a return to the market of years ago before PV just became
little more than a low-priced commodity. PV is like natural gas, it’s
underpriced because there is a glut of it on the market.
A higher price for PV will also put more pressure on the SunShot initiative
to drive BOS and soft costs lower.
Inverter costs could go a whole lot lower. Those manufacturers are not
struggling like PV is struggling. The collapse of PV industry cut waste, got
rid of weak companies and made the industry really work to survive. This is
what needs to happen to the fat and profitable inverter industry.
I don’t know how to bring that about but you can imagine how installed costs
would benefit if inverter prices dropped 50% and PV prices rose 10%.
My 2¢
Jim Duncan
North Texas Renewable Energy Inc
www.ntrei.com
NABCEP PV 031310-57
TECL-27398
[email protected]
817.917.0527
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of William Korthof
Sent: Friday, April 25, 2014 10:14 AM
To: RE-wrenches
Subject: Re: [RE-wrenches] high efficiency modules in U.S.
These anti-solar tariffs are awful!
What a horrible disappointment--- they won't revive a dead horse (domestic PV
manufacturing already folded), BP already closed its solar division,
Evergreen/Astropower/countless others already folded, they won't protect Solar
World (which isn't even a US company)----
but they will hurt consumers:
-drive solar businesses out of the marketplace and out of business
-less competition and fewer options in the market = lower quality and higher
prices
-lack of product
-lack of replacement product
-aftermarket warranty support for solar will evaporate
/wk
William Korthof
714.875.3576
Sustainable Solutions
#956904
On Apr 25, 2014, at 7:59 AM, Jason Szumlanski <[email protected]> wrote:
I heard Canadian Solar prices are on the rise, and supply will be "tight and
uncertain." Korean made panels were recommended as an alternative.
Jason Szumlanski
Fafco Solar
On Fri, Apr 25, 2014 at 8:42 AM, William Dorsett <[email protected]>
wrote:
I was recently told by a distributor that beginning perhaps as early as
mid-May, that a number of Chinese manufacturers will stop shipping to the U.S.
This is response to the solar tariffs imposed by the U.S. Does anyone know
which specific manufacturers have announced discontinuing shipments and how
this will tighten up the supply to U.S. installers…and thereby price?
Bill Dorsett
Sunwrights
Manhattan, KS
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Kirk Herander
Sent: Friday, April 25, 2014 7:05 AM
To: RE-wrenches
Subject: [RE-wrenches] high efficiency modules in U.S.
Now that it appears Sanyo/Panasonic is no longer available, and Sunpower
distribution is tightly controlled, what other high-efficiency alternatives are
U.S.-available? Thanks.
Kirk Herander
VT Solar, LLC
Un-Common quality since 1991
www.vermontsolarnow.com
dba Vermont Solar Engineering
NABCEPTM Inaugural Certificant
VT RE Incentive Program Partner
802.863.1202
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