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From: "eva cox" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>


Some notes for life matters tomorrow
Fear of debate!

Does talking about race issues create more bias or more acceptance?  Last
year one of the major factors in senator Harradine's decision to 'blink' and
pass the native title legislation was his stated fear of a race election.
Now we have the signs of a rerun of the same problems in the debate on what
should go in the referendum. Public opinion polls suggest that a substantial
63% were prepared to see acknowledgment of Indigenous prior custodianship of
the country in the constitutional referendum. However, the ARM and the ALP
seem most reluctant to see this question put even though the PM has agreed
it should be there.


They seem to assume that the inclusion of the question will stir a race
debate and end up losing the referendum. Even though more support the change
to the preamble than the republic, some republicans feel that then possible
controversy about race will damage the chances of a yes vote on the
republic.

Doesn't talking about race make it a problem?  We have seen a lot more
racism in the last year because it was on the agenda.Maybe it was because
the government was ambiguous in its own views. If the PM is going to approve
the inclusion of prior occupation, then presumably he will not suggest that
this is favoring Aborigines.

I've just looked at some data from a student survey last year on native
title. It included about 300 respondents, just over 2/3 under 30. It's not a
representative sample but it is a reasonable cross section.  Lots of first
time voters, some from the country, some coalition voters, some ALP, a bit
better educated than the general population, about half male and female.
Mostly from outer suburbs of Sydney. So the results are reasonable
indicators of prevalent views.

Firstly there are racists, some respondents had strong anti views and felt
that aborigines were favoured, but another group were passionately pro
Native title and reconciliation, and these probably were more
proportionately in the group. The most interesting group for me was the 2/3
or so who basically were uncommitted. Most of these were either neutral or
tended to be pro but were very unsure of their views.

Won't a public discussion polarise them?

Not likely if the native title one did not. If you look at the pro group,
most had discussed the issue and wanted more information. Even the anti
group had discussed it and wanted more information, however, we asked
whether those with opinions had changes their views during the debate,



The data suggest that the debate does change views (30%) and most of these
70% moving to neutrality or favourable (41%).  Those who discussed the issue
with others were most likely to change views.

Over half the sample wanted more information, mostly those who had more
favourable views and had already disciussed the issues. However, 42% of
those who hadn't discussed the issue still wanted more information. While
Democrat and ALP voters more were likely to discuss the issue. More than
half of all voters did discuss it. The less engaged group of first time
voters showed just over 1/3 discussing it.

One in three of the hostiles wanted more information
One in four of the indifferents
Nearly 2/3 of the neutrals
70% of the favorable views.

So as most said they were changes by more information and most of these were
favorable changes, this suggests that the public is not likely to be pushed
into racist debate which will create a backlash. On the polls results and
these small indications, it is much more likely that a campaign for a yes
vote to the inclusion of an acknowledgment of Aboriginal  prior occupation
is likely to pass and pass well, if there is bi-partisan support.

But don't Aboriginal groups want more than that? They want their ownership
acknowledged and their continued relationship?

Yes, that is another issue! The wording is obviously a point of dispute, but
that should be dealt with separately from the issue of whether a 'race'
referendum will create damage. Yes, there are racists out there, but there
is also reservoirs of goodwill amongst a very confused electorate. The
Native Title debate was truncated because a white man decided he knew what
was good for the nation against the wishes of the Aboriginal leadership.

If there are resources spent on informing people, on engaging younger voters
with the issues, then there should be shifts in attitudes towards more
acceptance. If the PM is really prepared to commit to such recognition, it
could be used to engage many of the uncommitted. What the survey showed was
some interesting clear correlations between levels of engagement and better
informed and more pro Aboriginal views.
-------------------------------------------------------
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