Seems to me that the case of AJ Burnett vs. Brad Penny tells us one important truth about baseball: always stay healthy in your free-agent year. That has to be the only explanation for Burnett's 5-year $82.5m deal and Penny's 1-year $5m deal with incentives. Age: Burnett turns 32 next week; Penny turns 31 in May. Durability: Burnett has started 211 games in his 10-year career, with 215 appearances overall. That's 21.1 starts per year. He's stayed healthy in two of the last five seasons, including 2008. Penny has started 245 games in his nine-year career, with 249 appearances overall. That's 27.7 starts per year. Penny has stayed healthy in two of the last five seasons -- 2006 and 2007, when he was an absolute beast. By the numbers: Burnett has a career 3.81 ERA and ERA+ of 111. Where he shines is strikeouts -- he averages 204 a season. But he walks an average of 90 guys and has a career WHIP of 1.284. Penny has a career ERA of 4.28 and ERA+ of 106, averaging 142 strikeouts and 73 walks a season. His career WHIP is 1.337. So by the numbers Burnett is a better pitcher, though not by leaps and bounds. But look at Penny's 2007 -- Burnett has never had a year like this. 16- 4, 208 IP, 199H, 75R, 70ER, 9HR, 73BB, 135H, 3.03 ERA, 4.57 LeagueERA, 151 ERA+, 1.308 WHIP. Penny was a run and a half better than the league average. Burnett has never been more than .75 of a run better. The only reason Burnett got the big deal and Penny didn't is that Burnett had a healthy and productive 2008. But what are the chances Burnett, age 32-36, is going to be a consistent winner for New York and earn his $82.5 million over five years. I'm still not afraid of the Yankees. -- Matt --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
