WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 470, 7 November, 2006 TAJIK PRESIDENT WINS EXPECTED LANDSLIDE With few alternatives on offer, most voters went for the obvious candidate - the current president. By IWPR staff in Dushanbe
KYRGYZSTAN: NO OLIVE BRANCH FROM PRESIDENT Parliament was promised more rights in a radical new constitution, so it was angered by the conservative document it received. By Cholpon Orozobekova in Bishkek **** NEW AT IWPR ****************************************************************** PRESS RELEASE: IWPR Announces the winners of the Fifth Annual Kurt Schork Awards in International Journalism. To find out about the winners or about the upcoming awards ceremony please go to http://www.iwpr.net/index.php?apc_state=henh&s=o&o=top_ksa.html IWPR LAUNCHES CENTRAL ASIAN NEWS AGENCY: News Briefing Central Asia is a new concept in regional reporting, comprising analysis and "news behind the news" in Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. 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By IWPR staff in Dushanbe The final result announced in Tajikistan's presidential election reflected the findings of an IWPR straw poll predicting a clear win for incumbent Imomali Rahmonov. Rahmonov won 79.3 per cent of the vote, totally dominating the November 6 election, according to data released by Central Electoral Commission chief Mirzoali Boltuev the following day. His nearest rival was Olimjon Boboev, who got just 6.2 per cent. Boboev, a relative unknown from the Economic Reforms Party, followed by Amir Karakulov of the Agrarian Party with 5.3 per cent, at least did better than Ismail Talbakov of the well-established Communist Party, who scored 5.1 per cent. Last was Abduhalim Gafforov with just 2.8 per cent, nominated by one of two factions in the Socialist Party. An unscientific survey of voting patterns which IWPR conducted on the day of the election in various parts of the country showed that the majority favoured Rahmonov rather than any of his rivals. The southern Hatlon region is Rahmonov's heartland, and many voters there predictably said they would choose him. Of the other contenders, only Communist Party leader Ismail Talbakov has any kind of constituency. But party member Saifiddin Sharipov said he would be voting for Rahmonov instead, as he deserved another term in office. Like many Tajiks, Sharipov credits the president with bringing an end to five years of civil war in 1997. "Although I'm a member of the Communist Party, I am voting for Rahmonov, because he has given the people peace, and thanks to him construction has begun on several large hydroelectric stations," said Sharipov. Another Communist in the south, Abdullo Mahmadaliev, said he too preferred Rahmonov's campaign platform over the others, although he declined to say who he would be voting for. Hatlon also has a significant presence of the Islamic Revival Party, IRP, the country's major opposition party which decided not to field a candidate in this election, although it did not formally boycott it as the Democrats and Social Democrats did. Party activist Sadriddin Halimov told IWPR that in the absence of an IRP contender, he would be giving Rahmonov his vote. "The fact that Rahmonov is a worthy candidate is acknowledged not just in Tajikistan, but abroad as well," he explained. Azimjob Vahobov, the IRP's deputy head in Hatlon province, said it would be wrong to comment on his own voting choices, but said the re-elected president would have a lot of work still to do, including tackling systemic corruption and the fact that hundreds of thousands of Tajiks have to work abroad as migrant labour. The November 6 election fell on a public holiday marking Constitution Day, and local authorities did their best to make the election a festive affair, with music and food laid on at polling stations in the Hatlon city of Kurghon-Tepa (Kurgan-Tyube). In the north of Tajikistan, too, the election day mood was upbeat. In the administrative centre Khujand, music blared out and kebabs sizzled on roadside barbecues, and women hurrying to vote tried to rein in children who were making tracks for street stalls piled with sweets. A continuous supply of natural gas, a rare commodity normally rationed from five to seven in the evening, was switched on in people's homes the day before the election. Here too, the vast majority of voters appeared to be opting for Rahmonov, either because they felt he had improved their lives, or because they felt he was the only known quantity on the list of candidates. "Under his rule, the country gained its independence, people's standard of living has improved, and major investors have started coming in," said Mansur Mirmullaev, a teacher at a private school in Khujand. Mirmullaev has over 40 years' work behind him, so his perspective is different from that of Jamshed, a young man who scrapes by doing casual labour. But Jamshed too said he voted for Rahmonov, explaining, "I don't want any changes; everything should stay the same. Things are going well for me now. I don't want anything to interfere with that." One 30-year-old man in the city, who did not want to be named, said he voted for the Communist Talbakov in the hope it would bring some fresh blood into the governing system. "Rahmonov has done a lot for the country, but many unresolved problems still remain: relations with neighbouring countries are tense; corruption and drug crime are flourishing, and something needs to be done about this," said the voter. "If someone new with a good understanding of politics and economics comes to power, then he will be able to change some things." In the capital Dushanbe, responses from voters were similar. "Is it any secret who I voted for?" asked resident Fathullo Abdulloev: "Of course one old friend is better than two new ones. Imomali Rahmonov has proved himself a patriot in many ways." Another interviewee, Daler Kurbonov, asked, "How can I vote for the other candidates when I don't know anything about them?" Turnout was relatively low in the capital, and IWPR reporters found many polling stations nearly deserted by midday, with domestic election monitors standing outside and smoking because there was nothing going on. Foreign election monitors have yet to give their verdict on whether the verdict was free and fair. IWPR reporters noticed a number of worrying incidents, although it is hard to assess how widespread they were or what impact they might have had on the outcome. For this election, colourful posters were designed that urged people not to try to vote on behalf of other family members, and training was provided for election staff to prevent such illegal practices. But as one IWPR contributor went to vote, an election official was asking lone voters why they had not brought their relatives' voting papers along so they could cast a ballot for them too. Election staff were also seen helping confused voters by crossing off all the names except Rahmonov's. At Dushanbe's teacher training university, lecturers shepherded students to the polls, with one group being herded in as the previous one left. One student who spoke on condition of anonymity said they were under instructions from college staff to vote for the president. KYRGYZSTAN: NO OLIVE BRANCH FROM PRESIDENT Parliament was promised more rights in a radical new constitution, so it was angered by the conservative document it received. By Cholpon Orozobekova in Bishkek If President Kurmanbek Bakiev planned to outsmart the opposition by presenting a less radical constitution than the one to which he agreed, he has miscalculated. His proposal has angered parliament as well as the opposition, whose rally is beginning to gain strength after a quiet weekend. Following last-minute talks on October 31, Bakiev agreed to send a draft of changes to the constitution to parliament on November 2, but he delayed doing so, and a big opposition rally went ahead the same day. As the protests entered their fifth day on November 6, the promised document at last arrived before legislators, although it was presented not by Bakiev in person, but by his official representative Alymbay Sultanov. Parliament was in any case unable to formally debate the document because opposition members stayed away, leaving the session without a quorum. "Twenty-eight [of the 75] members agreed they would not attend the session. We need to find out what kind of document is being submitted; what kind of governing system the president has gone for," said Melis Eshimkanov, one of the boycotters. Details of the proposed constitution are still unclear. A number of different drafts have been put forward by various political forces since the constitutional reform process was launched last year. The reform ground to a halt in late 2005 and re-starting it is a central demand made by the opposition Movement for Reforms. Reports from Bakiev's October 31 meeting with his opponents suggested that he agreed to opposition demands for a parliamentary rather than a presidential system. He was also said to have given his assent to a stronger parliament consisting of 105 members, 70 of them chosen by proportional representation. The legislature's 75 members are all elected by the first-past-the-post system. Speaking at a November 5 press conference, Roza Otunbaeva of the Movement for Reforms, which is organising the protests, warned Bakiev not to shift the goalposts, "If the president comes up with the idea of leaving a presidential system in place, it will be a fatal decision. Bakiev will then need to decide which country he's going to flee to." But by November 6 the situation seemed to have changed. Instead of an all-new constitution, the document placed before parliament consisted of a set of amendments to the existing law. State Secretary Adakhan Madumarov announced that Bakiev was proposing a "presidential-parliamentary system". What this meant, he explained, was that parliament would nominate a prime minister for appointment by the president. The head of state would also appoint cabinet members and regional governors, based on recommendations from the president. Plans to make parliament bigger have been scrapped, but proportional representation has been introduced for 50 of the 75 seats. Madumarov insisted that these proposals reflected the October 31 meeting, concluding, "I can't say the powers of the president have been substantial reduced - but the [various] branches of authority have been made mutually accountable." The state secretary made it clear that the deputies could take Bakiev's draft or leave it, indicating that either this set of amendments could be passed by legislators or that the document would be put to a national referendum. Both parliament and politicians attending the rally in the square outside were plainly furious with what Bakiev had come up with. Azimbek Beknazarov, an opposition member who did turn up for the parliamentary session, accused the president of reneging on his promise, "Bakiev promised to submit an all-new constitution, but he's refusing to abandon [former president Askar] Akaev's constitution.... Now he wants to leave that one in place by means of a referendum. The situation is complex enough as things are, but the president wants to make things worse and ultimately to dissolve parliament." His colleague Kubatbek Baibolov agreed, saying that the constitutional changes were entirely retrograde. "I have been studying this draft since this morning. It's scandalous! The president takes away some of parliament's powers, and he also plans to appoint local government heads without consulting local councils," he said. Tursunbek Akun, not a member of parliament but the head of Bakiev's human rights watchdog, was equally critical. "This draft is anti-democratic. It amounts to the president usurping power," said Akun. "He needs to withdraw it immediately - it's a lot worse than the existing constitution. He needs to acknowledge that the opposition is right to demand constitutional reform. The authorities are not taking the right steps to restore stability." The speaker of parliament, Marat Sultanov, attempted to cool passions by reminding his colleagues that "we still have the right to choose. If this version doesn't suit us, the law says that 38 deputies can table their own draft constitution". Despite the lack of a quorum, parliament set up a special commission headed by Sultanov to produce a constitutional draft that would incorporate wider views than those reflected in the Bakiev document. Meanwhile, the opposition rally in the square outside began to pick up after a lull over the weekend. By the afternoon of November 6, the crowd had grown from 5,000 to around 15,000 - the opposition claimed 100,000. Similar rallies were reported to be building strength in the town of Talas and in several smaller urban centres of the Chuy region. On the evening of November 6, Bakiev received leading opposition politician Almaz Atambaev, who handed over a seven-point list of demands - the chief of which was, he said, that the president should produce "the new constitution as agreed with the opposition". Bakiev appeared ready compromise, though not on the constitution. He appointed Omurbek Suvanaliev as interior minister, who promptly sacked the chief of police in Bishkek, Moldomusa Kongantiev, whose removal featured on the opposition's list of demands. The president also promised to give opposition members airtime on the state television channel, but they turned this down because the format on offer was limited to live debates live with pro-Bakiev politicians. On November 3, the second day of protests, it had appeared that the government had seized the initiative by producing evidence that it said showed the opposition was planning to mount a coup. But developments on November 6 tilted the balance back again, as Bakiev's promise of a compromise constitution came to nothing. "The president has seriously disappointed people," commented political analyst Nur Omarov. "They were expecting real changes. In fact, the president is retaining all his powers [in the draft constitution]. That displeases not only the opposition, but many other citizens." Parliament had decided to meet in three days' time, but 38 of its members convened an emergency session late on November 6, saying that if they could get another 13 to come to the meeting they could pass a new constitution, as favoured by the opposition. About 20 pro-Bakiev deputies were said to be convening their own meeting elsewhere. Eshimkanov said that if the change of constitution goes through, the next step will be to dissolve the government led by Prime Minister Felix Kulov and form a new one. As crowds of demonstrators expressed support outside the building, deputies spoke of a historic moment - November 7 is the day traditionally set aside to celebrate a past revolution, the 1917 Bolshevik takeover in Russia. Cholpon Orozobekova is a correspondent for Radio Azattyk, the Kyrgyz service of RFE/RL. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. 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