WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 511, October 12, 2007 KAZAK GOVERNMENT SIGNALS COMPROMISE IN OIL DISPUTE Delays to the Kashagan project will have an impact on the wider economy, but there is little the government can do to speed it up. By Elina Karakulova in Bishkek
NO EASY FIX FOR TAJIK MIGRANTS PROBLEMS Analysts say more must be done to look after the rights of Tajiks who go off to work in Russia. By Lola Khalikjanova and Aslibegim Manzarshoeva in Dushanbe KYRGYZSTAN: HIJAB ROW AS NEW SCHOOL YEAR BEGINS Headscarf dispute pits secular school system against demands to respect religious freedoms. By an IWPR contributor in Osh **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** WINNERS OF 2007 KURT SCHORK AWARDS ANNOUNCED Please go to http://www.iwpr.net/kurtschork.html to find out more. SAHAR JOURNALISTS ASSISTANCE FUND: IWPR is establishing a fund, in honour of Sahar al-Haideri, to support journalist participants in its training and reporting programmes around the world. The Sahar Journalists Assistance Fund will be used to support local journalists in cases of exile or disability, or to assist their families in case of death in service. To find out more or donate please go to: http://www.iwpr.net/sahar.html NEWS BRIEFING CENTRAL ASIA is a new concept in regional reporting, comprising analysis and news behind the news in Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Available at: www.NBCentralAsia.net **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml TURKMEN RADIO: INSIDE VIEW is an IWPR radio training and broadcast project for Turkmenistan. View at: http://www.iwpr.net/?p=trk&s=p&o=-&apc_state=henh RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://www.iwpr.net/index.php?apc_state=henh&s=s&m=p GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://www.iwpr.net/donate.html **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** KAZAK GOVERNMENT SIGNALS COMPROMISE IN OIL DISPUTE Delays to the Kashagan project will have an impact on the wider economy, but there is little the government can do to speed it up. By Elina Karakulova in Bishkek A threat by the Kazak government to take control of a major foreign-run oil project has raised a few concerns about investment risk, but the move appears to have specifically addressed problems with the giant Kashagan oil field, which is seen as vital to the countrys future. Something like a truce has now been reached in the governments dispute with the Agip KCO consortium which is developing the offshore Caspian field, but analysts says that even if the government was to seek a bigger role in the project, it would not get the oil out of the ground any quicker than the current arrangement. The Kashagan field is the biggest yet found in Kazakstan. After tough statements from ministers warning that the Kashagan contract might be torn up, President Nursultan Nazarbaev took a less aggressive line when he spoke to reporters on October 8, after meeting Italys prime minister Romano Prodi who was on a mission to save the project, which is led by the Italian oil firm Eni. We are not talking about revising the contract, said Nazarbaev. This suggested that the consortium would remain in place, and Eni would not be ousted as its leader. In August, Kazak environmental protection minister Nurlan Iskakov said that because Agip KCO had broken environment laws, we have to withdraw its license, since further development of the deposit will cause irreparable environmental damage. Earlier, Prime Minister Karim Masimov had also suggested that the consortium was in breach of contract. But Nazarbaev went on to say Kazakstan reserved the right to change the terms of the contract if it decided that Agip KCO was still violating them. He was citing legislative amendments passed by parliament at the end of September which do in fact allow the government to unilaterally break or alter contracts relating to mineral extraction. Nazarbaevs remarks appeared to mean that the threat of imminent action had receded to a warning that the government retained the legal tools to act if necessary. With oil reserves estimated by Agip KCO at 38 billion barrels (just over five billion tons), Kashagan is the centrepiece of the governments long-term economic strategy of turning the country into a prosperous nation, a projection based in large part on plans to nearly double oil production to 150 million tons a year by 2015. However, the project has been decidedly slow in getting off the ground. After the start-up date had already been delayed from 2005 to 2008 for technical reasons, Agip KCO infuriated the government by announcing this July that extraction would take a further two years to get going, while the estimated development costs would shoot up from 57 to 136 billion US dollars. Kazakstan wants to become one of the worlds top ten oil exporters, so it has an interest in accelerating the extraction process, explained Dosym Satpaev, head of the Kazakstan-based Political Risk Assessment Group. So of course it gets annoyed when the investors start saying thats unlikely and keep drawing the process out. As well as accusing the consortium of breach of contract and violating environmental regulations, the governments response included a demand for 40 billion dollars in compensation and an increased stake for Kazakstans national oil and gas company KazMunaiGaz to make it the second largest shareholder after lead company Eni. It is not clear whether this latter demand remains in place, or how a restructuring would affect other shareholders. At present, Eni, Exxon Mobil and Royal DutchShell have 18 per cent each, Conoco Phillips 9.3 per cent, and KazMunaiGaz and Japans INPEX 8.3 per cent each. The delay to Kashagans start-up will inevitably affect the Kazak economy. In the next couple of years, as President Nazarbaev pointed out on October 28, the government will be forced to pay its share of the higher development costs by trimming expenditure on social programmes and economic reforms. At the same time, past delays suggest that 2010 may not be a cast-iron date for the oil revenues to start flowing in. Longer term, the government may have to trim its expectations. Commenting on news that the forecast of 150 million tons a year had been reduced to 130 million tons, Prime Minister Masimov said on October 12 that "this is all Kashagan . Of course we are making adjustments", according to Reuters. At the same time, Masimov indicated that the size of the compensation Agip KCO would have to pay was still negotiable. Economic analyst Petr Svoik is in no doubt that the government had to act after Agip KCO revised its plans over the summer. In requesting a bigger share in the consortium, Svoik argues that the government is motivated by a sense of urgency it wants to earn a higher share of the consortiums revenue. The financial position is actually far from good, and the economic problems are getting worse, he said. The government understands that, and is counting on increasing its national share of the oil revenues. Some energy analysts make the point that if KazMunaiGaz did become a major player in the Agip KCO operation, it might give the government more of a role in decision-making but would not necessarily make the oil start flowing any faster or reduce the development costs. Kazakhstan isnt going to take a key role in deciding when extraction starts or how much it is going to cost, said energy expert Yaroslav Razumov. KazMunaiGaz has neither the financial nor the technological capacity to become the key operator, although it could become more active and influential. The Kashagan dispute, and particularly the legislative changes pushed through parliament, have caused some alarm in business circles, amid concerns that it might be the start of a wider campaign to take control of foreign-run projects. Razumov dismissed such speculation, saying that the government lacked the capacity to run the entire energy sector, nor would foreign investors stand for it. No investor will allow the government to interfere in a private-sector project. There has never been a case when transnational corporations allowed local governments to control their share of the project. They either leave or they control the project, he said. Gulnur Rakhmatullina, an economist with the Institute for Strategic Studies, says the recent legislation is only part of a natural evolution where a stronger and more assertive Kazakstan is trying to protect its interests. In the early Nineties, the doors were wide open to investors and we werent able to dictate our own terms as we should have done, she said. Now the country is financially stable and the nations assets have been developed properly, and we are setting ourselves the task of defending our own national interests when thats necessary. Amid signs that the government is prepared to resolve its dispute with Agip KCO without a major showdown, a deadline of October 22 has been set for reaching an amicable settlement. Elina Karakulova is IWPRs Central Asian regional editor based in Bishkek. NO EASY FIX FOR TAJIK MIGRANTS PROBLEMS Analysts say more must be done to look after the rights of Tajiks who go off to work in Russia. By Lola Khalikjanova and Aslibegim Manzarshoeva in Dushanbe While a new framework agreement on labour migration agreed by former Soviet states is a positive step, experts say Tajikistan and Russia must do more to protect the rights of vulnerable expatriates working in Russia. The declaration, which commits members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS, to coordinate policy to protect migrant workers travelling between them, was issued by the presidents of the groupings 11 states when they met in the Tajik capital Dushanbe on October 5. The 11 full members of the CIS are Russia, four of the five Central Asian republics (Turkmenistan has only associate status), all three countries of the south Caucasus, and Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. Although analysts interviewed by IWPR welcomed the migration agreement, most said that in the case of workers from Tajikistan, neither Moscow nor Dushanbe was ready or willing to resolve all the problems once and for all. Under the declaration, CIS members will coordinate their migration policies to guarantee their citizens the freedom to travel, live and work in other member states, and will take action to prevent discrimination against them. Kazak president Nursultan Nazarbaev noted afterwards that participating states had agreed to set up a database to monitor the supply and demand of migrant labour, according to the RIA Novosti news agency. The issue of rights for labour migrants is, as Russian president Vladimir Putin pointed out, a sensitive issue for the former Soviet countries. Economic growth has made Russia and increasingly Kazakstan destinations for workers from the poorer Central Asian states. Tajikistan, in particular, experiences an annual seasonal exodus of men looking for manual jobs and higher earnings than they could ever earn at home, where unemployment rates are high and wages low. According to official statistics, average pay in Tajikistan is 30 to 35 US dollars a month, whereas in Russia a skilled worker can earn 300 dollars or more. Official figures from the Tajik authorities say more than 400,000 Tajiks go off to work in Russia every year, while at least 100,000 more head for Kazakstan. Seasonal fluctuations in the data and the large number of illegal migrants lead some experts to suggest the number of Tajik migrants in Russia is closer to one million a seventh of the entire population. Since April, Russia has imposed tougher immigration rules, setting a quota for workers coming into the country, banning them from working as market traders, and making employers more responsible for ensuring that those they hire have legal status. Some analysts in Tajikistan welcomed the new CIS declaration as a step in the right direction. The decision adopted at the summit has formalised the common interest that all CIS countries have in the labour migration issue, said political analyst Rashid Abdullo. It represents a substantial step towards finding an appropriate solution to the problem at an official level, However, Abdullo added that solutions were likely to take time Political analyst Parviz Mullojanov said neither Russia nor Tajikistan was currently prepared to deal with the consequences of proper regulation, and despite the latest CIS declaration of intent, little of substance was likely to be agreed for some time to come. Russia is not currently ready to accord legal status to the full number of foreign immigrants, as it would then be required to grant all of them the full range of benefits, which would be a burden on its national budget, he said. So no real progress should be expected in the near future. Nor is Tajikistan in a position to cope if the flow of workers is subject to stringent regulation, as this will almost certainly mean a fall in overall numbers as the illegals are weeded out. The country is unusually dependent on workers sending back money to support their families. World Bank figures suggest these remittances are equivalent to 35 per cent of Tajikistans gross domestic product. Political analyst Firuz Saidov insists that the vital economic contribution made by Tajikistans migrants should force their government to lobby on their behalf. The challenge for the Tajik government is to show them they are not abandoned and it does cares about its citizens. It has to do this because its the migrants who provide economic stability for the country, he said. Muzaffar Zaripov, director of the Tajikistan office of the International Organisation for Migration, IOM, argues that Moscow, too, has plenty of reasons to take positive action. He cited the tighter regulations introduced earlier this year which brought many Tajik migrants into the legal economy in Russia and cut the influx of illegals. Zaripov would now like to see Russia introducing even tougher legislation governing domestic employers, although he does not recommend simply fining them because that may simply prompt them to shed their illegal staff in order to evade punishment. Then it is the worker, not the company, that suffers. He is deported, loses his job, and gets none of the wages he was due, explained the IOM official. Another important issue that Zaripov would like to see Moscow tackling more robustly is the rising wave of xenophobia, which leaves people from Central Asia and the Caucasus vulnerable to discrimination and racist attacks. He would like to see the authorities taking action against media outlets that encourage xenophobic attitudes among Russians. Every time people talk about labour migration, they mention Tajiks first and foremost. That is very bad . The level of xenophobia increases because [false] information is circulated in the Russian media, he said. One group who have definitely lost out from the changes that Moscow has already made are people who have been deported for breaching immigration rules. Once deported, they cannot re-enter Russia for five years. As IWPR reported in June (Tajik Migrants Fleeced by Shady Travel Firms, RCA No. 498, 22-June-07), some of those who end up being deported have been duped by intermediaries who promised to get them legal status. Earlier this year, Dushanbe asked Moscow to amnesty as many as 50,000 people who had been deported, but Russias migration agency said each case would need to be reviewed individually, meaning the process was likely to take a long time. Mullojanov doubts Moscow will offer such an amnesty. It would be quite possible from a technical point of view, because the total number of deported Tajik nationals is not large. However, such a move would create a precedent that the Russians are unlikely to accept at present, he said. Zaripov agrees that Russia could review these cases, but warns that this would be a very laborious task they would have to decide on each case individually, and there are some cases where the deportation itself was conducted in an illegal manner. Abdullo suggests another reason why no action is likely to be taken in the short term Russia is now focusing on its December parliamentary election and a presidential ballot next March, and the campaign period is not a good time to be raising a thorny issue like immigration. The authorities there are campaigning for votes, and a significant proportion of the Russian electorate is against immigrants of any kind, he said. Lola Khalikjanova and Aslibegim Manzarshoeva are IWPR contributors in Dushanbe. KYRGYZSTAN: HIJAB ROW AS NEW SCHOOL YEAR BEGINS Headscarf dispute pits secular school system against demands to respect religious freedoms. By an IWPR contributor in Osh As the new school year gets under way, several Muslim girls in southern Kyrgyzstan have been excluded for wearing headscarves, and more are considering dropping out if the ban continues to be enforced. The extent to which the headscarf ban is official remains unclear, but schools are citing new guidelines instructing them to interpret and enforce the school dress code more strictly. In the past, schools have tolerated girls wearing Muslim-style headscarves, but now many are insisting that the costume does not count as part of the prescribed uniform and anyone who flouts the rules will be excluded. The parents of devout Muslim schoolgirls have protested at the new rules, saying they should be allowed to adopt hijab or Islamic dress under the constitutional right to religious freedom. The dispute is partly about the relationship between religion and the secular state, but is complicated by politics many of those insisting on the right to wear hijab are associated with Hizb-ut-Tahrir, an outlawed group which the authorities regard as extremist and a potential threat. In researching this report, IWPR met seven girls in Osh region who had been excluded from classes after refusing to remove their scarves. Thirteen-year-old Mavluda Bahridinova, a pupil at the Razzakov School in Osh, was barred from school at the beginning of the autumn term on September 1 after she refused a request to remove her headscarf. Her father Jamoldin Bahridinov said that when he came to discuss his daughters case, the school head told him that his daughter was attending a Russian-language school, and that if she wanted to keep her head covered she should switch to a madrassah or Islamic school. All my objections that the childs rights and the law on freedom of conscience and religion were being violated went ignored, said Bahridinov. He said he reported the incident to the local security department where staff told him that the schools decision had nothing to do with infringing religious rights, but with regulations at individual schools. He said what made him particularly angry is that instead of discussing the situation with parents, the headmistress simply did not let his daughter into the school. She should have invited parents to the school [to discuss the matter] rather than expelling a seventh grader from classes, he said Parents in the Karasuu district of Osh region have written to the local authorities to complain about the new rules, and there are rumblings of discontent in Nookat and other districts. Although it is clear there has been a general impetus to impose school uniform rules and without making it explicit ban Islamic forms of dress since the new academic year began, the rules are being imposed patchily, with some schools in Osh citing higher authority, others their existing internal regulations, and others still not enforcing a ban at all. In the main, school officials maintain that wearing anything other than the official uniform is breaking the rules. We have a dress code on school uniform. They [girls] must follow the rules. The hijab is not part of the school uniform, said Ermamat Kholmirzaev, headmaster at the Mendeleyev secondary school in Nookat. But he denied that staff were forcing students to take off their scarves, or that imposing strict uniform requirements amounted to an attempt to curb religious freedom. Religion is permitted in our country, but it must not interfere in state [matters]. We arent persecuting anyone . We are demanding that they follow what is written in the school code, he said. Ilmira Shakirova, deputy director at the Beruni school in Nookat district told IWPR that she was acting on an order to enforce the rules on proper dress. Weve received instructions from the district education department, she said. If someone comes to school, they must adhere to the school uniform. Shakirova argued that headscarves were not aesthetic and could pose hygiene problems, or even obstruct pupils hearing. Ikram Rahmonov, who works for the education department in Nookat district, said the schools were merely fulfilling their own internal rules to the letter. Marat Usenaliev, head of the schools department at the Kyrgyz education ministry, denied there was any official ban on headscarves. There has been no such ban. The only thing is that a verbal instruction was issued saying that the school uniform should consist of a white top and black lower half, he said. When IWPR asked Usenaliev to comment on parents allegations that girls were being forced to remove their scarves, he said these pupils were free to attend switch from mainstream state schools to madrassahs if they were unhappy. "This is a secular state and the schools are a general educational institution. After school, they can go around in hijab or without it, he said. Recent campaigns in southern Kyrgyzstan, where the Islamic tradition has always been stronger than in the north, suggest there is a growing trend for women to wear the headscarf. In August this year, Mutakalim, a Muslim womens rights group based in the south, won its battle for women to be allowed to have passport photographs taken wearing scarves. Abdumannop Khalilov, head of the Foundation for the Development of Democracy and Rights in Osh, said that since the new school year began, several parents had approached his non-government group for help on the issue. Khalilov said that two years ago, his organisation approached the authorities on the behalf of a girl in the seventh grade at the Razzakov school, who went on to successfully challenge a decision to forbid her from entering the school wearing a headscarf. He said the girl won the case because the local authorities were unable to challenge the argument that since wearing a headscarf in a public place does not go against the constitution, it should therefore be allowed in schools. Several parents told IWPR that the Osh regional branch of the prosecution service had become involved in the row, and had called them in to lay down the law. They talked to us and said they [schoolgirls] should take their headscarves off, said a mother from Nookat. They said it isnt allowed The prosecutor said he would send his staff members to check that the ban is being followed. Some of the parents interviewed by IWPR admitted they belonged to Hizb-ut-Tahrir, an Islamic group banned in Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian republics. Hizb-ut-Tahrir the Party of Liberation is a group of Middle Eastern that emerged in Central Asia in the Nineties and advocates the creation of an Islamic state. The partys several thousand followers in the south of Kyrgyzstan are the most visible and vocal in the region. The Kyrgyz authorities have not pursued a policy of mass arrests as seen in Uzbekistan and to an extend Tajikistan, but keep a close eye on Hizb-ut-Tahrir and other radical Islamic groups which it regards as a security threat. One parent, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he believed the Kyrgyz authorities were following the lead of Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan's authoritarian leader, who has taken tough steps to crush the group. Gradually, [Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek] Bakiev has started the same policy as Islam Karimov. He has started provocative actions against us members of Hizb-ut Tahrir. This man argued that wearing a headscarf was a religious, not a political act. In Islam, a woman must cover her body and head from strangers. They are not propagating a particular idea; they are just simply following the canons of Islam, he said. Increasing numbers of girls are either dropping out of school over the issue, or considering doing so. Akbarali Ergashev, from Nookat district, said that pressure on his 13-year-old daughter Mahmudakhon to uncover her head led to her giving up school altogether. Of course we realise she isnt getting an education. But it was her decision [not to go]. If it wasnt for this ban on wearing headscarves, she wouldnt have dropped out, he said. Nookat resident Bahodir Abdrahmanov told a story similar to that of other interviewees, saying his daughter Barnokhon, now 14, decided to keep her head covered at an early age. She started to wear a headscarf and follow Islamic rules when she was six, he said. She still wears a headscarf but teachers keep telling her to take it off and have even threatened her with expulsion. Ive warned them that if they break the law [by insisting on the ban], I will take my daughter out of school and send her to a religious school instead. Mahabat Aytieva remains defiant after her teenage daughter has been excluded for wearing a headscarf. We will do what Islam prescribes that we do. We do not agree that our daughters should not wear headscarves In Islam, this counts as a test. With patience, we shall prevail. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. The opinions expressed in Reporting Central Asia are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA: Editor-in-Chief: Anthony Borden; Managing Editor: Yigal Chazan; Senior Editor: John MacLeod; Central Asia Editor: Saule Mukhametrakhimova; Project Director: Kumar Bekbolotov. IWPR Project Development and Support: Executive Director: Anthony Borden; Strategy & Assessment Director: Alan Davis; Chief Programme Officer: Mike Day. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** IWPR builds democracy at the frontlines of conflict and change through the power of professional journalism. IWPR programs provide intensive hands-on training, extensive reporting and publishing, and ambitious initiatives to build the capacity of local media. Supporting peace-building, development and the rule of law, IWPR gives responsible local media a voice. Institute for War & Peace Reporting 48 Grays Inn Road, London WC1X 8LT, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7831 1030 Fax: +44 (0)20 7831 1050 For further details on this project and other information services and media programmes, go to: www.iwpr.net ISSN: 1477-7924 Copyright © 2007 The Institute for War & Peace Reporting **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** If you wish to change your subscription details or unsubscribe please go to: http://www.iwpr.net/index.php?apc_state=henh&s=s&m=p
