WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 545, May 17, 2008
THREE YEARS ON, ANDIJAN STILL WAITS FOR TRUTH. Three years after Uzbek security forces fired into a crowd of demonstrators, the chances of a proper independent remain minimal. By News Briefing Central Asia staff CENTRAL ASIA SEES LEAN YEAR AHEAD Plague of locusts, water shortages and rising food prices conspire against a region where life is tough at the best of times. By IWPR staff in Central Asia **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** CROSS CAUCASUS JOURNALISM NETWORK. IWPR has launched the website of a unique Caucasus-wide programme, funded by the EU and the Finnish government, forming a network of more than 50 journalists from across the North and South Caucasus. They are meeting and collaborating in all parts of the region over the next three years. www.crosscaucasus.net SAHAR JOURNALISTS' ASSISTANCE FUND: IWPR is establishing a fund, in honour of Sahar al-Haideri, to support journalist participants in its training and reporting programmes around the world. The Sahar Journalists' Assistance Fund will be used to support local journalists in cases of exile or disability, or to assist their families in case of death in service. To find out more or donate please go to: http://www.iwpr.net/sahar.html **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml TURKMEN RADIO: INSIDE VIEW is an IWPR radio training and broadcast project for Turkmenistan. View at: http://www.iwpr.net/?p=trk&s=p&o=-&apc_state=henh RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://www.iwpr.net/index.php?apc_state=henh&s=s&m=p GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://www.iwpr.net/donate.html **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** THREE YEARS ON, ANDIJAN STILL WAITS FOR TRUTH By News Briefing Central Asia staff Three years after Uzbek security forces turned their guns on a crowd of demonstrators in the eastern city of Andijan, the chances that a proper independent investigation will be ever be carried out remain minimal. The government of Uzbekistan seems set on effacing the 2005 shootings from the country's historical memory. The public, meanwhile, block the event out of their own minds, for fear that remembering it will bring unpleasant consequences. May 13 was the third anniversary of the day government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the city centre. Officials said 189 people died and more than 500 were injured, while independent human rights organisations claim the true number of dead was closer to 800. The authorities accused the protesters of being members of radical Islamic terror groups which they named as Akramia, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, and al-Qaeda. They proceeded to arrest anyone they deemed to be ringleaders of the protests, plus eyewitnesses, human rights activists, journalists, and anyone else who expressed views different from their own. The government responded to pressure for an independent international investigation by closing down the missions of foreign organisations assisting civil society and media development. In November 2005, the European Union placed sanctions on Uzbekistan, consisting of a visa ban for several high-ranking officials held directly responsible for the violence, and an embargo on arms sales. After his re-election last year in a ballot of dubious constitutionality, for the third term contrary to the Constitution, President Islam Karimov started hinting at plans to implement liberal reforms. He freed a few human rights activists under amnesty, he saw through a the abolition of the death penalty, and he let the International Committee of the Red Cross in to inspect prisons. Analysts say these actions resulted in the almost complete lifting of the sanctions when the EU reviewed the matter on April 29. The visa ban was suspended for six months, leaving just the embargo on arms sales. Yet three years on, Andijan remains a dark stain on the country's history, and is rarely even discussed openly by people living in Uzbekistan. One street trader in Andijan said the mood was still one of "trepidation and the expectation of repression". "If I talk about Andijan, I will draw down danger and problems upon myself," he said. An observer who recently visited the city commented on the "extremely depressed" atmosphere there. This was a society, he concluded, that harboured no hopes of a fair investigation. Meanwhile, the authorities studiously avoid mentioning the subject. "No one talks about Andijan any more, not even President Karimov, who once talked about the 'terrorists' who seized control of [government] institutions in Andijan," said the observer. "The tragedy has been thrown on the junkheap of history." Nadezhda Atayeva, the head of the Paris-based Human Rights in Central Asia Association, says there is no longer any chance of an objective investigation. She explained how the authorities have "neutralised" society by purging it of its active members - human rights activists, journalists, and opposition supporters. Secondly, there can be no access to centrally-held comprehensive documentation, as it has been either hushed up or destroyed. "The mass murder of people that took place in Andijan - as confirmed by human rights reports collated from eyewitness testimony - is a crime against humanity," she said. "The authorities therefore want to make May 13, 2005 a secret of history." (NBCA is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming, covering only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the moment.) CENTRAL ASIA SEES LEAN YEAR AHEAD Plague of locusts, water shortages and rising food prices conspire against a region where life is tough at the best of times. By IWPR staff in Central Asia Already struggling with shortages of water and electricity and the impact of global food price rises, Central Asia has been hit by yet another curse - a plague of locusts that adds to other threats to the region's ability to feed itself. Parts of the region, especially Tajikistan in the south, suffer from locust invasions on an almost annual basis. This year, an unusually warm spring is being blamed for the intensive reproduction cycle of the Moroccan locust species. Even though the winter was exceptionally cold across the region, the weather subsequently became so hot that vegetation rapidly dried out, forcing the swarms to migrate more rapidly than normally to satisfy their constant hunger. As a result, there are fears that efforts to contain the spread of the insects will be inadequate and they will cause significant to crops. In Kazakstan, the latest data indicate that the locust infestation has already damaged 200,000 hectares of land in the South Kazakstan region. Here it is livestock breeders who have been worst affected, forced to sell off their animals because the locusts destroyed their forage crops. According to the agriculture ministry in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, more than 50,000 hectares of land have been destroyed. The ministry does not have crop-spraying planes to attack the swarms, and is having to bring in private firms to do the job. There are no figures for Uzbekistan, but 150,000 hectares of farmland is known to have been attacked by locusts in Tajikistan. United Nations representatives say Tajikistan needs urgent help to combat the infestation, which is spread over four times the area occupied last year. The UN is allocating 13 million dollars for pesticide treatment, but says the country needs a total of 25 million if it is to save its crops. Political analyst Rashid Abdullo argues that at a regional level, the war on locusts is ineffective because the various states no longer coordinate their actions. "In Soviet times, this problem was addressed comprehensively by all the [Central Asian] republics and neighbouring Afghanistan," he said. "Now each country tackles its problems alone on the basis of self-interest, and according to its economic and technical capacity to do so." This year's locust invasion comes at a time when parts of Central Asia are still recovering from severe energy crises caused by an abnormal winter freeze. In February, the Tajik government was forced to international funding after suffering losses of about 850 million dollars over the winter. The destruction of new crops also comes in the wake of price rises that have affected food products in the poorest regional states - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where more than half the population lives in poverty. Last autumn, bread prices saw increases of 200 or 300 per cent. Added to this is a ban on grain sales by Kazakstan, the region's breadbasket, imposed to keep domestic prices from going up in an environment of rising world fuel prices. Exports halted in April and are expected to resume only in September, and this is expected to create real difficulties for purchasing countries like Kyrgyzstan. A former Kyrgyz agriculture minister, Jumakadyr Akeneev, says that at around 60,000 tons, reserves of wheat are currently much lower than they should be. Food security is laid down in law in Kyrgyzstan, and the rule is that the state should maintain reserves of basic foodstuffs sufficient to feed vulnerable social groups for a three-month period. That means a figure of 250,000 tons of wheat, a staple item. "There is currently a potential threat to grain security," said Akeneev. Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiev asked for help with grain and wheat when he visited Kazakstan recently, but nothing has materialised yet and current stocks are running out. "Everybody is hoping Kazakstan will set aside 300,000 tons of wheat, as provided for by a verbal agreement between the presidents of the two countries," said Akeneev. "Yet one should be realistic - there is no official contract saying this amount has to be supplied to Kyrgyzstan." He added that 300,000 tons would see Kyrgyzstan though to its own next harvest in three months' time. Akeneev believe the current shortfall could be relieved in future if government bought wheat from private farmers at a good price. The low prices paid in recent years have led farmers to curtail the area they assign to this unprofitable crop. It is hard to say how close Kyrgyzstan could get to ensuring its own food security, as it is not even clear how much land there is available. The official figures say at least 780,000 hectares, while agriculture ministry staff say the reality is much less than that. Agriculture Minister Arstanbek Nogoev wants to create a "buffer-zone reserve", which would entail the government securing supplies of grain by contracting with farmers in advance of the harvest. The plan, which is included in a broader agricultural reform programme, is to end up with a reserve of between 150,000 and 200,000 tons of wheat. With large reserves, the state would then be in a position to step in and take action whenever it wanted to reduce the effect of fluctuating market prices. Kazakstan may provide a model, with a state agency that controls seven million tons, a quarter of all the grain grown in the country. "Only by creating an analogous agency in Kyrgyzstan will we be able to protect the domestic market from speculators and from fluctuations on the world market, and provide home-grown crops in the amounts that are need," said Nogoev. If Kyrgyzstan buys about 30 per cent of the wheat it consumes from Kazakstan every year, Tajikistan imports more than 40 per cent of its wheat. One reason for this is that much of the arable land available is given over to cotton, a lucrative export earner, rather than cereals. Some economists say the country should switch from cotton to growing its own food. However, political analyst Parviz Mullojanov pointed out that even if radical restructuring of the farming sector were to be undertaken, it would take years to carry it though - whereas the food crisis is being felt now. He painted a gloomy picture of what would happen if further rises in food prices later this year were followed by more energy shortages, "The conjunction of these two factors could create very serious social tensions in most of the countries of the region, including Tajikistan." The prospects for a good harvest across Central Asia this year are made even less good by unseasonably low water levels. The extreme, prolonged frosts over the winter created huge demand for electricity, forcing the governments of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to increase the rate at which water was let out of their mountain reservoirs to drive the generating turbines. The water level in the Toktogul reservoir, which generates 40 per cent of Kyrgyzstan's electricity, is at a critically low level and output has become erratic. Even the capital Bishkek is experiencing blackouts of 13 or 14 hours. The authorities say river levels are at least 50 per cent lower than is normal for this time of year, due to low rainfall and slower-than-usual melting of snows. Baratali Koshmatov, director of the water management department in the Kyrgyz agriculture ministry, told IWPR that farmers had been asked to plant crops that need little irrigation, as a way of conserving water. Downstream from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the low river levels are also taking their toll on cotton, rice and wheat plantations in Kazakstan and Uzbekistan. Some 450,000 hectares of irrigated land is under threat in Kazakstan, and more than three million hectares in Uzbekistan. The lack of water, and its effect on food and cash crops, affects all these countries. But Kazakastan and Uzbekistan can at least import the extra food they need, using revenue from oil and gas sales. Neither Tajikistan nor Kyrgyzstan has that option. Firuz Saidov, an economist in the Tajik capital Dushanbe, said high world food prices coupled with the range of problems now disrupting life in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan - energy, water and locusts to name but three - could have serious social effects. "To obtain flour, people will reduce their consumption of other foodstuffs," he explained. "The staple foodstuff is bread, so if it becomes unaffordable, it will have a major impact and will reduce the standard of living of the poorest sections of the population." **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. The opinions expressed in Reporting Central Asia are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA: Editor-in-Chief: Anthony Borden; Managing Editor: Yigal Chazan; Senior Editor: John MacLeod; Central Asia Editor: Saule Mukhametrakhimova; Programme Director: Kumar Bekbolotov. 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