WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 561, January 13, 2009 TURKMEN LEADER TO KEEP LID ON DEMOCRACY Pledge to create a stronger, more independent parliament comes to nothing. By IWPR staff in London
KYRGYZSTAN STEELS ITSELF FOR SLOWDOWN Government unveils anti-crisis plan as bankers and builders say they are feeling the knock-on effects of international economic crisis. By Igor Gorbachev and Yrys Kadykeev in Bishkek KAZAK COTTON FARMERS' POOR PROSPECTS Falling purchase prices leave farmers in debt and some are abandoning the cotton business. By Oxana Sivtsova in Shymkent and Marik Koshabaev in Almaty KAZAKSTAN: KIDS FLEE ABUSIVE CARE HOMES High incidence of escapes from childrens homes indicates serious problems. By Anton Dosybiev in Almaty **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** NEW PROJECT: CENTRAL ASIA RADIO: http://iwpr.net/centralasiaradio IWPRs weekly radio programmes for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan provide analysis and comment on current political and social themes in each country. 2008 WINNERS OF THE KURT SCHORK AWARDS: http://iwpr.net/kurtschork CENTRAL ASIA PROGRAMME HOME: http://iwpr.net/centralasia IWPR COMMENT: http://iwpr.net/comment SAHAR JOURNALISTS ASSISTANCE FUND: http://iwpr.net/sahar **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://iwpr.net/subscribe GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://iwpr.net/donate **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** TURKMEN LEADER TO KEEP LID ON DEMOCRACY Pledge to create a stronger, more independent parliament comes to nothing. By IWPR staff in London The first session of Turkmenistans new parliament suggests that President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov plans to maintain tight control over the institution, commentators interviewed by IWPR. Members of parliament elected in the December polls gathered on January 9 for the launch of a new legislature which has 125 seats instead of the previous 65, under constitutional changes passed in September. The old parliament or Mejlis, as constituted under the late president Saparmurat Niazov, had no real powers and was simply there to sign off on decisions by the head of state. Decision-making powers, albeit nominal, were vested in the Halk Maslahaty or Peoples Council, a 2,500-member assembly which convened occasionally to rubber-stamp major decisions. As part of the reforms he instituted after Niazovs death in December 2006 and his own election the following February, Berdymuhammedov abolished the Halk Maslahaty in September last year, handing much of its authority over to a revised version of the Mejlis, which was duly elected in December in what the president termed true evidence of Turkmenistans commitment to wide-ranging democratic reforms. During his time in office, Berdymuhammedov has announced the start of democratic reforms, changed the constitution, and created a system in which the legislature, executive and judiciary are supposed to be independent and equal branches of power. These apparently major reforms to the political structure offered a glimmer of hope that the authorities might be serious about delivering on their promise of change. No one expected this to happen overnight, or that the new parliament would shake off the presidents grip, but there was an expectation among some observers that it would begin exercising a limited degree of independence. In the autumn, we were hoping the soon-to-be-elected Mejlis would not be a puppet parliament, said one observer in the Lebap region of eastern Turkmenistan. Such hopes faded following the December ballot, which local analysts say were carefully orchestrated and rigged. (See Turkmen Election Reveals Depressingly Familiar Abuses, NBCentralAsia, 15-Dec-08.) The first session of parliament was similarly disappointing. Although the constitution gives members the right to nominate candidates for the post of Mejlis chairman, as well as to set up parliamentary committees, the Turkmen president took matters into his own hands, nominating the outgoing speaker for the job. Akjy Nurberdyeva was duly elected, unanimously. Berdymuhammedov went on to recommend that legislators set up five committees for human rights and liberties, for science, education and culture, for economics and social policy, for international and inter-parliamentary relations, and for local government affairs. He also nominated a head for each committee. Its nonsense, said a representative of an international organisation in Ashgabat, who asked to remain anonymous. All the branches of power are controlled by one person. What does Turkmenistan need a constitution for, then? An analyst in the Balkan region of western Turkmenistan said this was a monstrous distortion of the principle of the separation of powers. Any hope of democracy had been destroyed, he said. President Berdymuhammedov displayed an autocratic intolerance of the opinions and initiatives of others, and to top it all, of the law, he said. Other analysts say it is unrealistic to expect the leadership to adhere to the constitution, since in Turkmenistan, the law has always existed only on paper. You need to understand this, said a journalist working for a government publication. Berdymuhammedov has to have confidence in the people who hold key positions, even in the legislature. So he nominates all the candidates himself. For example, he said, the speaker Nurberdyeva is an excellent conduit who is prepared to carry out Berdymuhammedovs every order, even if this goes counter to her own principles. He recalled that Nurberdyeva was first appointed acting speaker to replace Ovezgeldy Atayev, who was arrested soon after Niazovs death, and she went on to back Berdymuhammedov to the hilt. The presidents actions make absolute sense, concluded the journalist. Other analysts say that given the flawed manner in which they were elected, there is little chance that the newly-elected members of parliament will prove effective or that they will attempt to exercise their powers. Members of parliament will exercise their new powers only with the presidents say-so, said an observer from Dashoguz in northern Turkmenistan. Should the Mejlis try to do anything on its own, this initiative will be crushed. Apart from the right to change the constitution and call elections, the Mejlis has powers to ratify and denounce international treaties, deal with issues relating to the state border and internal administrative divisions. At the presidents request, it can also appoint and dismiss the head of the Supreme Court, the prosecutor general, and the interior and justice ministers. KYRGYZSTAN STEELS ITSELF FOR SLOWDOWN Government unveils anti-crisis plan as bankers and builders say they are feeling the knock-on effects of international economic crisis. By Igor Gorbachev and Yrys Kadykeev in Bishkek As the Kyrgyz government takes steps to counter the effects of international financial crisis, analysts say the banking and construction sectors are already feeling the pinch. In December, the government approved a set of measures designed to ensure economic stability through the current period of turbulence. The three-pronged strategy will seek to boost economic growth, bring inflation down to single-digit figures and insulate the most vulnerable sections of the population. The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has approved a special loan of 100 million US dollars to fund the programme. Expectations of a slowdown are reflected in the IMFs prediction that growth will fall to 3.7 per cent in 2009 compared with an estimated 7.5 per cent last year. President Kurmanbek Bakiev spelled out how his government plans to stimulate growth at a meeting in early December 1. According to his press office, government money will be injected into new construction projects around the country to create jobs and offset unemployment. Although it is clear from the governments published economic programme that it is well aware of the economic risks, official statements are carefully tailored to avoid any sense of panic. At a cabinet meeting in mid-November, for example, Bakiev said, We are having a difficult situation due to global economic and financial crisis. But nevertheless, there are no grounds for talking about a catastrophic crisis in our country. The minister for economic development and trade, Akylbek Japarov, was reportedly reprimanded for expressing his concerns in blunt terms in early November. Our state is effectively on the verge of the financial crisis. The economic situation in Kyrgyzstan may worsen in February-March 2009, he said. Economists note that because the Kyrgyz economy is relatively isolated, it was not immediately exposed to the crisis. Local banks did not borrow from abroad, and the country does not have a well-developed stock market. That led the deputy chairman of the central bank, Kubanychbek Bokontaev to state confidently that Kyrgyzstans banking system will not be hit by the financial crisis as badly as Russia, Kazakstan or China were. Nevertheless, economists say that far from being immune, the country is already suffering in a number of ways. In recent years, Kazakstans successful banking sector has branched out into its smaller neighbour, and now accounts for 60 per cent of the basic assets of banks in Kyrgyzstan, according to that countrys central bank. Since late 2007, Kazak banks have been pulling in their horns after finding themselves dangerously exposed with high levels of borrowing on the international market. That has had knock-on effects on their Kyrgyz operations. Rita Karasartova, a lecturer in the finance department of Kyrgyzstans Academy of Management, explained how the commercial banks were locked together in a web of transactions and as these operations slowed, interest rates could rise and banks would run short of money to lend. She added, Even a psychological environment in which people are thinking about where to put their money will prompt them to withdraw it from the banking system. To counter the risks to the commercial banking sector, President Bakiev issued a decree on January 8 ordering the create of a new refinancing fund, which will use money from the central bank to keep local banks solvent. Central bank chairman Marat Alapaev said the fund will offer short-term loans to commercial banks if they run into liquidity problems. One area where banks and the economy as a whole have seen a downturn in cashflow is the remittances that Kyrgyz labour migrants send home from abroad. Depending on the time of year, there are perhaps half a million of these people, mostly in Russia but increasingly also in oil-rich Kazakstan, Unofficial estimates put the number of Kyrgyz migrants working abroad at 500,000. Many work in the construction industry, which has boomed in those countries in recent year but has been one of the first areas to feel the crunch as credit availability has collapsed. For a poor country like Kyrgyzstan, the sums they send home are substantial, and many households are kept afloat by this money, as are the businesses they buy from. Adam Beishenaly, head of economic analysis with the governments financial markets regulator, said that in 2007, migrant remittances were put at over one billion dollars, equivalent to the countrys gold and foreign currency reserves. In a December 22 statement, economic development minister Japarov sounded an upbeat note about the state of the remittances, noting that they had grown. However, his statement referred only to figures for the first nine months of 2008, omitting the last quarter when job losses really started to bite in the migrant labour market abroad. In an extensive report in December, IWPR found that there was no evidence of a mass exodus of migrant workers from Russia and Kazakstan yet, as even those made unemployed were keen to hang on for as long as they could. However, the prediction was that the real job crunch might only make itself felt in the spring, when building companies normally take on new workers for the season. (See Testing Times for Central Asian Migrants, RCA No. 557, 01-Dec-08.) Kyrgyzstans construction industry is already in recession, according to the chairman of the national association of builders, Askarbek Moldobaev, who says 40 per cent fewer buildings were put up in 2008 than the year before. Karasartova agreed, saying, Even now it is clear that work at some construction sites has halted, and this could mean job losses. The slowdown in the sector both here and in Kazakstan has had the perverse effect of increasing demand and prices for building materials, because these are being produced in smaller amounts. Our costs have gone up because of the increased price of building materials, as well as general price rises, said the director of a building firm in Bishkek. The pace of construction has now slowed, and were hoping we can at least complete our ongoing projects and after that well stop borrowing and not expand our business. It is significant that in a country where a popular uprising has ousted the then president Askar Akaev in 2005, more people are now worried about recession than about a repetition of the political upheaval. In an opinion poll conducted by the International Republican Institute last month, over 40 per cent of respondents said their main concern was economic crisis, in contrast to a previous survey which suggested most people feared social unrest and revolution. Igor Gorbachev is a correspondent with the online news agency 24.kg. Yrys Kadykeev is a pseudonym for a journalist in Bishkek. KAZAK COTTON FARMERS' POOR PROSPECTS Falling purchase prices leave farmers in debt and some are abandoning the cotton business. By Oxana Sivtsova in Shymkent and Marik Koshabaev in Almaty Farmers in Kazakstans main cotton-growing region say falling prices on top of last years poor weather conditions are making it increasingly untenable for them to stay in business. They accuse the government of not doing more to help them, but officials say farmers need to learn to survive on their own in a competitive commercial market. As harvesting drew to a close in November, officials estimated that the final figure for the whole of Kazakstan would be 330,000 tons, a quarter down on the previous years figure of nearly 450,000 tons. In the course of 2008, farmers in the southern region where most Kazak cotton is grown had to contend with hail which forced them to re-plant their crops. This was followed by a lack of rain and a shortage of river water to irrigate the fields. By autumn, they found that the average price they could expect to be paid for their cotton by commercial buyers had fallen from 60 tenge last year to 50 tenge a kilogram, or less than five US cents, and as fuel and other costs were still rising, they could not balance their books. Purchase prices have fallen because of the decline in demand for cotton on world markets as economies slow. The head of the local agriculture department in Shardara district, Turanbek Ospanov, said the best sort of cotton was fetching 56 tenge, and second-best was less than that. Prices for the crop are such that any farmer can go bust in a short space of time, said Sadu Bekenov, who owns a large cotton-farming cooperative. They have to live on something, feed their families and think of the future. Farmers with less land have fewer options for keeping their businesses sustainable as things get tighter. Aybek and his family, for example, works a small plot of land in the Makhtaaral district. He borrowed money to buy tractor fuel and fertiliser last spring, but then found himself short of water to keep the crop alive. Lower-than-anticipated buyers prices then meant he was unable to recoup his debt-funded initial investment. Like other farmers in South Kazakstan region, he depends on irrigation water from the Druzhba canal, which in turn is fed by the Syr Darya river, originating in Kyrgyzstan. This major Central Asian river is the source of constant dispute between Kazakstan and Uzbekistan, on the one hand, which need as much water as possible over the growing season, and Kyrgyzstan on the other, which tries to store a certain amount in its reservoirs to generate hydroelectricity. Aybek blames his own government for not securing enough water from Kyrgyzstan. The shortage of irrigation water is a direct consequence of our officials failure to reach agreement with the Kyrgyz, he said. And its the peasants who suffer. Farmers also say a promise by the government to buy some cotton at a fixed price of 67 tenge a kilogram higher than the market average has not really materialised. To take one district, Shardara, as an example, government agencies bought less than 3,000 of the total 80,000 tons produced. Aybek found the government quota had been filled by the time he was ready to sell. I dont know who managed to sell their harvest at the government prices. My neighbours and I had to sell it cheap, and we were unable to repay our debts, he said. Unlike neighbouring Uzbekistan, where the state is the monopoly buyer, the Kazak cotton industry is run along commercial lines, meaning that in good years farmers do much better than their Uzbek counterparts. The downside is that when prices fall, they are on their own. Bekenov said that when farmers have asked the Kazak government to review cotton pricing on previous occasions, They told us that this was a market with its own laws, and we must live by them. Local agriculture official Ospanov, confirmed what many farmers have been saying that it was becoming uneconomic to work the less productive fields. Already some farms are abandoning fields where the yield is low, he said. They think it doesnt make sense to harvest [the cotton] as it will cost too much. You need to get at least two tons per hectare to make it worth growing cotton, and the costs are high because fuel and fertiliser have become more expensive. An agricultural expert who asked not to be named predicted that the trend would continue. I think the cotton sowing [area] will be curtailed substantially next year because, even with support from the government, farmers wont be able to make a profit if prices stay the same, he said. As well as price fluctuations, the expert pointed to what he sees as inherent flaws in the structure of cotton farming in Kazakstan. He believes there are too many small farms which work their land over-intensively and plant poorer grades of seed, all of which makes their product uncompetitive. He argues that to benefit from economies of scale, small units would do better to amalgamate. No small farm in isolation can afford good-quality seeds, secure irrigation water or carry out proper crop rotation, he said. Bakhytjan Bayjumartov, head of the new technologies department in the provincial agricultural agency for South Kazakstan region, insists government is responding to farmers concerns, and plans to increase subsidies to farms that plant cotton. Whereas the state allocated 6,000 tenge per hectare [in 2008], in the coming year it plans to provide 22,000 tenge [180 dollars] per hectare, he said. At the same time, Bayjumartov warned that farmers should expects more water shortages over the coming growing season. Oxana Sivtsova is a reporter in Shymkent and Marik Koshabaev is an IWPR-trained journalist in Almaty. KAZAKSTAN: KIDS FLEE ABUSIVE CARE HOMES High incidence of escapes from childrens homes indicates serious problems. By Anton Dosybiev in Almaty Dima struggles to remember how many times he has run away from the childrens home in Almaty, Kazakstans second city. He says the reason he absconds so often is that he is regularly mistreated there. Just 13, Dima says he is liable to be hit or deprived of food for the slightest misdemeanour at the childrens home. I got punished for tipping a bowl of porridge over during dinner by accident, he said. I had to kneel in the corner all night. Inevitably, he is always picked up by the police after spending some time on the streets, and faces a different punishment every time he is brought back to the home. Once he had to clean the toilets for a week, another time he had to sleep in a cold room, and he has also been beaten. Dimas story reflects the experiences of many children in care in Kazakstan, as IWPR discovered in interviews with children and staff at state-run homes. Further evidence of ill-treatment in childrens homes was provided by a report last October by Kazakstans prosecution service. A carer who gave her first name as Alma told IWPR, Ive been working at the home for only a year, but I want to leave. I cant watch all the shocking things that happen there. She said mistreatment was widespread, arguing, The attitude to the children is entirely incompatible with the rules of teaching its normal to clip them round the head, and misbehaviour is punished in very inhumane ways. One boy who was involved in a fight was taken outside into the cold without any warm clothes. He fell ill afterwards and had to be hospitalised. The care home worker also alleged that the children were not fed properly. They are fed very poorly they only get good food when someone arrives to do an inspection and everyone knows about it in advance, she said. The management and staff steal food from the canteen, and the children are given whats left. Alma said she could well understand why children try to get away from places like this. They dont want to live here; I wouldnt be able to stand it myself, and children are very sensitive, she said. Dima says he started running away from care institutions when he was seven. His mother is an alcoholic who is no longer in contact, and he has never known his father. He relishes his brief spells of freedom, when he teams up with other boys in the same predicament. When Im living in the city, I and the other boys sleep in basements its warm down there, he said. As a minor, he cannot legally work, but he does whatever it takes to survive on the streets. Sometimes you do something [an odd job] at the market and you get food or a bit of money, he said. Mostly we beg for money, and use it to buy a hot dog or a kebab, which I especially like. Every time Dima runs away he hopes he will not have to go back. I dont want to stay locked up indoors all the doors in our orphanage are locked and there are high walls around it like a prison, he said. We see other children out for a walk with their parents or by themselves its so unfair. His temporary freedom only lasts until the next of the regular police raids that conducted in all major cities as part of a policy of preventing crime and tackling homelessness among minors. Raids are conducted twice a month at locations where children in the at-risk category congregate railway stations, markets, basements and attics, Colonel Aigul Shopshekbaeva, deputy head of department for public security in the Almaty police force, told IWPR. We have a map where we mark all such places in every district. She said that as a first port of call, the police take the children to temporary holding and rehabilitation centres. About 2,000 kids are sent there every year, she said, referring to figures for Almaty only. Most of them, 80 per cent, are from the near abroad Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well as from the [Kazakstan] provinces, she said. Saule Abizova, the head of a childrens home in Almaty, claimed that it was only difficult children from particularly dysfunctional families who made a habit of running away. The vast majority of the children in her home were not orphans but instead had relatives who could not or would not look after them, she said, adding that such children often had not had much schooling and were prone to vagrancy, theft and crime. Alma disagreed that all the runaways had an inclination to vagrancy. There are simply children who have an acute sense of justice, and thats why they run away, he said. Those whove already had a taste of freedom wont be deterred by any punishment. Abizovas description of the problem is not shared by the national prosecution service, either. It issued a stinging account of the state of child services in Kazakstan in October. The result of 18 months work on child crime and homelessness, including spot checks on care facilities, the report cited cases where mistreatment was the prime reason for children running away to a life on the streets, where they were vulnerable to abuse. Where children were absent, the management at these institutions explained this by saying they had left of their own accord, said the prosecution service statement. However, the inspections established that escapes were frequently a consequence of illegal actions by staff members in these institutions. The inspections led to a criminal case against the head of a childrens home in Semey, northeastern Kazakstan. In central Almaty, Panfilov Park is a favourite gathering place for street children. The Cathedral of the Resurrection is located there, and a Russian Orthodox priest there, Father Alexander, tries to do what he can for them. In his view, The children run away because of the situation in the homes. Children like this come often to our cathedral and I have a feeling that no one cares about them. They tell me they feel unwanted. He added, They dont ask for much, mostly food and clothes, and we help them. Bolat, a taciturn boy IWPR met near the cathedral, said he ran away because things were so bad at the home, and the older boys there beat him up. Its cold now, so I dont stay away from the home for long, he said. Its very nice here, beautiful trees and kind people who go to church they give us money and sweets. Some childcare experts believe the only long-term solution is to get more children from homes placed in families. Arujan Sain, who heads a childrens charity called the Voluntary Charity Society, whose Russian acronym DOM means home, criticised the current adoption process in Kazakstan for being too cumbersome. People in Kazakstan are queuing up to adopt a child, she said. At the same time, there are tens of thousands of children in childrens homes. Our legislation stands between the children and those who want to take them into their families. Sain is also unhappy with rules that give preference to the natural parents, whatever their circumstances, which can mean a child is not eligible for adoption. Instead of protecting the rights of the child, the state is defending the rights of the biological parents who really have no need for those rights, she said. The childrens home worker Alma believes that even state-run institutions could be reformed into more homely, child-oriented units. The only solution . is to create conditions closely resembling the family environment, she said. Children should be loved and treated as individuals. No one would even dream of mistreating their own children like this. (Names of children have been changed to protect their identity.) Anton Dosybiev is an IWPR-trained journalist in Almaty. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. The opinions expressed in Reporting Central Asia are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA: Editor-in-Chief: Anthony Borden; Managing Editor: Yigal Chazan; Senior Editor: John MacLeod; Editor: Caroline Tosh; Central Asia Editor: Saule Mukhametrakhimova; Programme Director: Kumar Bekbolotov. 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