WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 669, February 9, 2012 IWPR INSIGHT
PICKING A WINNER IN TURKMENISTAN If the president is going to win anyway, why does he feel a need to talk democracy and pluralism? By Inga Sikorskaya INTERVIEW TAJIKISTAN'S LIMITED OPTIONS At home, the government confines appointments to circle of insiders, while abroad the country has few real friends. By Lola Olimova **** NEW ************************************************************************************ KYRGYZSTAN ELECTION UPDATES 2011: http://iwpr.net/focus/kyrgyz-election-2011 LATEST PROJECT REVIEWS: http://iwpr.net/make-an-impact/project-reviews VACANCIES: http://iwpr.net/what-we-do/vacancies **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** CENTRAL ASIA PROGRAMME HOME: http://www.iwpr.net/programme/central-asia CENTRAL ASIA RADIO: http://iwpr.net/programme/central-asia/central-asia-radio NEWS BRIEFING CENTRAL ASIA: http://iwpr.net/programme/news-briefing-central-asia CENTRAL ASIA HUMAN RIGHTS: http://iwpr.net/programme/central-asia-human-rights-reporting-project BECOME A FAN OF IWPR ON FACEBOOK http://facebook.com/InstituteforWarandPeaceReporting https://www.facebook.com/iwprkazakhstan https://www.facebook.com/iwprkg FOLLOW US ON TWITTER http://twitter.com/iwpr http://twitter.com/IWPR_Kazakhstan http://twitter.com/iwprkg **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** DONATE TO IWPR: http://iwpr.net/donate **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** IWPR INSIGHT PICKING A WINNER IN TURKMENISTAN If the president is going to win anyway, why does he feel a need to talk democracy and pluralism? By Inga Sikorskaya Turkmenistan’s president Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov is standing for a second term on February 12. Since the outcome is a foregone conclusion, IWPR asked Inga Sikorskaya, senior editor for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, to explain why Berdymuhammedov is even bothering to campaign, why he has invited candidates to oppose him, and why he has promised to allow more than the current one political party to exist. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why is Berdymuhammedov making this show of interest in political pluralism? The president sees this pre-election as an opportunity to publicise his ostensibly democratic intentions, as he’s aware that at times like this, the international community pays slightly more attention than usual to what’s going on in Turkmenistan. As some other Central Asian states undergo political change, Berdymuhammedov wants to show that his country, too, is shifting towards democracy. Kyrgyzstan elected a new president last October last year, in the first ever peaceful handover of power in Central Asia. This month’s election in Kazakstan ensured that two more political parties – albeit both loyal to the authorities – could enter a parliament previously occupied solely by the presidential party. Secondly, it gives him an opportunity to try out some new electoral practices. Forming groups of citizens to nominate candidates and passing a law allowing a multiparty system are unprecedented moves. It’s important to Berdymuhammedov to gauge the reaction from voters, and to test their loyalty to him. He may also hope these changes will increase his support, as some voters may still be swayed by initiatives that look like reform. Third, even though they are token gestures, they may be a way of initiating more substantive changes in a gradual, controlled manner. This may reflect a desire to stave off the kind of upset that Arab countries have been experiencing as their populations run out of patience and oust authoritarian rulers. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What’s the significance of Berdymuhammedov’s call for a multiparty system? It is unlikely this signifies a move towards a more pluralist system. The conditions for that just don’t exist in Turkmenistan. Passing legislation on a multiparty system doesn’t mean it will actually happen. Last summer, Berdymuhammedov invited opposition groups abroad to come back and compete in the elections, but he did nothing to make that possible. Turkmenistan’s constitution contains guarantees of rights and freedoms which don’t exist in reality. Instead of genuine pluralism, we are likely to see one or two parties emerging that have been created by the leadership. We see this in neighbouring Uzbekistan, where artificially-created pro-regime parties were brought into parliament to create the appearance of pluralism. If there is any positive aspect to these moves by Berdymuhammedov, it’s that they may encourage opposition groups in exile, which are weak and limited in what they can do, to starting mobilising. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The OSCE has refused to monitor the presidential election because it doesn’t meet any of the requirements for a free and fair ballot. If the outcome is so clear, why are there several candidates? The whole electoral process has been tightly controlled by the authorities. They have allowed seven other candidates through, all of them handpicked and vetted for loyalty test. One look at their election programmes is enough to tell you that they are there just to shore up support for the incumbent. It’s all an empty gesture designed to create the impression of democratic reforms. Over the last five years, Berdymuhammedov will no doubt have been watching how long-serving leaders in other countries engineer landslide victories while seeming to allow multiple candidates. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Berdymuhammedov says he wants to transform Turkmenistan into an industrial power. What has he done to achieve this aim by diversifying the economy beyond oil and gas? He launched his election campaign by repeating a pledge to turn this largely agrarian country into an industrialised state, with new factories, high-tech farming, and a bigger private sector. However, none of these promises is backed up by anything solid. Nor it is easy to imagine anything changing, as nothing gets done without Berdymuhammedov’s personal approval. He alone decides singlehandedly on every deal and contract that gets signed. Inga Sikorskaya is IWPR senior editor for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. INTERVIEW TAJIKISTAN'S LIMITED OPTIONS At home, the government confines appointments to circle of insiders, while abroad the country has few real friends. By Lola Olimova Tajikistan’s government is incapable of making the changes needed to take the country forward because it is not geared up to hiring the best and brightest, and because its external relationships with key regional states are troubled, a leading analyst says. IWPR asked Dushanbe-based political analyst Nurali Davlatov to outline the constraints on economic progress, the main sources of public dissatisfaction, and the limitations of the administration led by President Imomali Rahmon. IWPR: There’s recently been an increasing amount of criticism of the Tajik authorities in the media, on the internet and elsewhere. Why is this happening, and why now? Nurali Davlatov: We are highly reliant on external factors and events. Take food security – what happens if Uzbekistan cuts off our rail links to the outside world? We experienced something close to that last year. The same is true of energy security. For the last 16 years Tajikistan has experienced an annual energy crisis. It has virtually no electricity six months out of the 12, and the power stations that are supposed to provide heating to residential areas don’t work, even in the capital. There are constantly problems with natural gas, one of many areas where we depend on Uzbekistan. Our relationship with Russia hasn’t been that friendly recently, either. So we’ve got problems with both Uzbekistan and Russia. In Afghanistan, meanwhile, the war continues and it isn’t clear how things are going to develop there, because sooner or later the Americans will come to terms with the Taleban. Relations with China are superficially good, but we risk becoming dependent on it down the line. It provides us with loans, but these just result in an influx of Chinese workers. It also requires loans to be repaid on time, otherwise it will remove what it has built. And now we are leasing out farmland to the Chinese. So one side of the problem is Tajikistan’s standing in the world. The second thing is that everything we do is so ineffective. The excuse used to be that we’d endured a civil war. But 15 years have gone by since that ended, and people are still being fed empty promises – everything will soon be fine, we’ll be self-sufficient in energy, and we’ll only have to wait another two or three more years for this. This is repeated year after year. The danger is that the public’s trust has its limits, and could soon be at an end. These media reports are a warning sign that people’s patience is running out. Promises won’t work for ever. You have to carry out some sort of action – substantive programmes that will achieve some kind of headway, if not drag the country out of crisis. Thus far, we haven’t seen any sign of progress. Why are the factories and companies that were privatised in the early years of independence not actually functioning? Why are the remittances sent home by migrant workers in Russia not helping rebuild the Tajik economy? The money goes on consumption or flows out again [to fund imports]. We don’t produce anything ourselves, and we don’t have any plans to do so. IWPR: There was a government reshuffle at the beginning of 2012. Will this new team be able to carry forwards the changes that Tajikistan so badly needs? Davlatov: It’s the same team as before. There isn’t a single new face there. This is a legacy of the Soviet period – once you get into the “nomenklatura” elite, you will only get thrown out under extraordinary circumstances. You remain there regardless of whether you can do the job. IWPR: So how do people get into the top echelons of power? Davlatov: The principle of regionalism was established in the 1940s, when for the first time ethnic Tajiks were appointed to top posts in Soviet Tajikistan. From then until the early 1990s, officials from northern Tajikistan were in charge, backed by Moscow. That balance was upset in 1992, when there was a power-struggle and the Popular Front [from Kulob in southern Tajikistan] came out on top and began appointing its own people. Later on, one man began deciding everything – President Rahmon. The team that came to power in 1992 was divided internally, so they initially got official posts but were gradually weeded out and sidelined. So initially Kulob region was in charge, but later the top jobs went to people from just one district there, Dangara, the president’s birthplace. Anyone who comes to power in Tajikistan is going to rely on his “avlod” or clan. IWPR: Isn’t that rather a pessimistic view? Davlatov: A nation’s psychological makeup takes decades or centuries to form. Tajiks are currently at a stage where they will place more reliance in their avlod, their village, or their district than on outsiders. IWPR: We are always hearing, including from President Rahmon, that Tajikistan is short of skilled personnel. In your view, are there people here with the professional skills to implement much-needed reforms? Davlatov: Tajikistan has professionals, although they don’t necessarily live here – they are scattered around the world these days. The people who are actually in power came from rural districts and collective farms. Dushanbe’s previous residents emigrated and are working in Europe or America. What we need is good managers, good programmes, and people to devise those programmes if we can’t do it ourselves. We need government that is conscientious, not corrupt, and that regards itself as servant rather than master of the nation. Interview conducted by Lola Olimova, IWPR editor for Tajikistan. **** http://iwpr.net/ ********************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. The opinions expressed in Reporting Central Asia are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. 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