“Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts 2004-2009”
new visiongain report

Mobile phones and broadcast television are two of the most influential and
popular consumer technologies of the electronics age. So what happens when
the two are merged together? The answer is Mobile TV.

The concept of mobile TV - the ability to watch live, direct broadcasts on
mobile handsets - is potentially one of the most disruptive technologies on
the horizon for mobile operators, and could dramatically reduce mobile data
revenues. Why bother paying to download just a clip of the soccer goal over
3G when you can watch the whole match? Can Video-on-Demand really compete
with TV? Is it time to forget Video-on-Demand? What is your company doing
about Mobile TV?

The new visiongain report “Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts
2004-2009” details how trend-setting carriers in Japan and South Korea are
looking to satellites for broadcasting delivery of TV and even digital music
content to handsets. But it’s not just these two innovative markets, a few
forward-looking mobile operators and manufacturers in Europe have also
started trials of the technology. So there is no doubt about it, Mobile TV
is coming and you need to be aware of its potential now.

Visiongain believes Mobile TV has the potential to become a success in the
non-voice segment. Indeed, the ability to watch movie trailers, news, sport
and TV show clips is seen as one of the main offerings and differentiators
of the 3G networks that European mobile operators spent billions of Euro on.
It is true that 3G operators hold a first-mover advantage in providing TV
content, but ‘real’ mobile TV will come into its own with digital, multicast
technology, which offers higher quality at a lower cost.

TV phones capable of capturing analogue signals have been around for a
while. But it is really the addition of mobile digital media broadcasting
(DMB) technology that will allow Mobile TV to come into its own. Samsung and
Nokia are among those handset manufacturers that have announced phones that
will be able to handle digital TV signals, and both are expected to be on
the market in 2005. These devices with built-in digital TV receivers, to be
released by the world's largest and third largest manufacturers, promise to
provide a boost for handset demand, and are just two of a plethora of phones
that will hit the market in the coming years. In this 180+ page visiongain
forecasts that if Mobile TV is priced and packaged correctly, there could be
up to 270 million subscribers worldwide with TV functionality on their
mobile phones by 2009.

Why You Need To Buy This Report

With over 70 charts and tables, this report provides insight into the
services, pricing and business model of mobile operators that have already
launched TV, as well as providing 'best and worst case' subscriber and
revenue forecasts up until 2009. The report gives an overview of the Mobile
TV market in its current and future form, the technology behind the services
and the various solutions offered by the leading vendors. The challenges
facing the industry are discussed and recommendations to help this service
to reach its full potential are also provided.

Key Points Of This Report Include:

- Investigation and analysis of the drivers of Mobile TV;
- Consumer demand and usage patterns of watching TV on the move;
- Technology overviews of DVB-H, satellite DMB amongst others;
- Cost-benefit analysis of general vs. mobile-specific tailored content; and
- Emerging relationships between broadcast companies, mobile operators and
content providers.

Below is the full table of contents:

Mobile TV: Market Analysis and Forecasts 2004-2009 - Table of contents

Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1             TV is coming to a phone near you
Chart 1:        Revenues from mobile communication, information and 
content, 2003-2009
1.2             Defining mobile TV
1.3             Focus of this report

Chapter 2. Overview
2.1             Convergence of mobility and broadcasting
Figure 1:       Internet-led technology convergence
Chart 2:        Mobile penetration rates in selected countries
2.1.1   Mobiles and TV are already successful bedfellows
Chart 3:        TV generated SMS and MMS, 2002-2007
Chart 4:        SMS TV revenue, 2002-2007
2.2             Digital TV is a catalyst for mobile TV
Table 1:        DTV penetration by European country, 2001 & 2006
2.3             The DTV landscape in Asia-Pacific
Chart 5:        Number of households with digital TV in Asia-Pacific, 2003, 2005
and 2010
Chart 6:        DTV breakdown by technology
2.4             The first steps of mobile digital TV
2.4.1   TVMobile
Table 2:        TVMobile viewer numbers by time of the day
Table 3:        TVMobile advertising spot buy rates
Figure 2:       Overview of TV mobile digital TV network infrastructure and
2.4.2   Terrestrial Broadcasting Tokyo Pilot Project
Table 4:        Tokyo Pilot phase 2 experiment outline - video transmission
Table 5:        Tokyo Pilot phase 2 experiment outline - EPG/data transmission
2.5             Waking up to the idea of mobile TV
2.6             Why push for mobile TV services?
Chart 7:        Time spent watching TV
2.6.1   Mobile operator objectives with mobile TV         Higher revenue
2.5.3   Increased acquisition
2.5.4   Lower churn
2.7             TV phones will not go the way of portable television sets

Chapter 3. Technical focus
3.1             Digital technology and standards behind TV on mobile phones
Table 6:        Standards and their characteristics for digital terrestrial TV
Figure 3:       Adoption of digital standard by country
3.2             DVB
Chart 8:        Technical choices for a mobile operator
3.3             DVB-H
Figure 4:       DVB-H signal architecture
3.3.1   DVB-H specification is approved
3.4             IPDC
Figure 5:       Using IP datacast technology to make TV mobile
3.4.1   IP Datacast Forum
3.4.2   Differences between terrestrial and mobile digital TV
Table 7:        Technology comparison between fixed digital TV and mobile phone 
3.4.3   DVB Project
3.5             MBMS
Figure 6:       Delivery of DVB-TV services via UMTS
3.5.1   Cismundus
3.5.2   Using cellular for mobile iTV
3.6             DAB
3.7             ISDB-T
Figure 7:       Functional block diagrams of an ISDB-T receiver
Figure 8:       ISDB-T segments, modulation and transfer rate
3.8             ATSC
3.9             OFDM
Table 8:        COFDM characteristics
3.9.1   OFDM and 4G CDMA
3.9.2   BST-COFDM
3.10            MPEG-4 AVC/H.264
Chart 9:        Coding efficiency comparison
Table 9:        MPEG-2 vs MPEG-4 comparison
Table 10:       Technical and licensing comparison of video codecs for
broadcasting on mobile devices

Chapter 4. Handsets
Chart 10:       Mobile handset shipments, 2003-2009
Table 11:       Current and planned TV-enabled handset models
4.1             Integrating TV functionality into mobile handsets
Table 12:       Technical requirements for receiving terrestrial digital TV on
mobile phones
Figure 9:       Digital TV handset design architecture
4.2             Screen resolution
4.3             User input and interactive menus
4.4             Device integration costs
4.5             Possible issues of contention
4.6             Vendor devices and strategies
4.6.1   Nokia Nokia 7710 multimedia device
Table 13:       Key features of the 7710 phone
Image 1:        Nokia 7710         Nokia, BBC trial mobile TV
4.6.2   Samsung         SCH-M220
Image 2:        M220
Table 14:       SCH-M220 specifications         SPH-V3000
Image 3:        V300
Table 15:       SPH-V3000 specifications         SCH-X820
Table 16:       SCH-X820 specifications
Image 4:        SGH-P705         SGH-P705
Table 17:       P705 specifications         M400 PDA
Image 5:        M400
Table 18:       M400 specifications
4.6.3   NEC         NEC 601N
Image 6:        NEC's 601 handset model         NEC 3G digital TV phone
Table 19:       W-CDMA TV phone specification
Image 7:        NEC 3G TV phone
4.6.4   Sanyo         Sony
4.6.5   Motorola
4.6.6   Sony Ericsson         Nokia, NEC, Motorola, Siemens and Sony Ericsson mobile TV 
4.6.7   KDDI/NHK digital TV PDA
Image 8:        Prototype PDA
4.6.8           Kane iPAQ Pocket PC PDA
Image 9:        Vision Station
4.6.9   Mobiles linked to DTV via 2D codes
4.6.10  Freezing TV moments for mobile phones
4.7             TV handset forecasts
Chart 11:       Mobile digital TV handset shipments, 2004-2009
Chart 12:       TV-phone shipments by region, 2004 and 2009

Chapter 5. Vendor solutions
5.1             Samsung
5.2             The world's first DVB-H modulator
5.3             Toshiba
5.4             Sand Video
5.5             Qualcomm
5.5.1   Implications of Qualcomm’s MediaFlo
5.6             DiBcom
5.7             Motorola
5.8             Sharp
5.9             Imagination Technologies
5.10            T-Systems
5.11            Siemens
5.12            SCM Microsystems
5.13            Sony
5.14            TI

Chapter 6. Issues to consider
6.1             Copyright protection
6.1.1           Digital Rights Management
Figure 10:      Buying rights for DRM protected content
6.1.2           The role of clearinghouses
6.1.3   Is protection needed?
Figure 11:      Copyright protection for broadcasting to home TV
Figure 12:      Copyright protection for mobile broadcasting
6.2             Legal complications
6.3             Selling the idea of mobile TV to broadcasters
6.4             Standardisation and regulation to support IP datacasting
6.5             Will TV-phone users have to pay licence fees?
6.6             Overcoming industry cynicism

Chapter 7. Global markets and deployments
7.1             Overview by region
7.2             Japan and Korea
7.2.1   Mobile digital TV via satellites
Figure 13:      Satellite DMB network structure
Figure 14:      Satellite DMB consortium services and fees
7.2.2   DMB consortium business plans
Figure 15:      Satellite consortium business plan
7.2.3   Hanbyol details
Image 10:       Hanbyol satellite launch
7.2.4   Terrestrial vs satellite mobile TV
Figure 16:      Competitive environment: mobile vs terrestrial DMB
7.2.5   Regulatory and other hurdles
Table 20:       Regulatory environment and regulations related to business
Table 21:       Schedule for digital broadcasting transition in South Korea
7.2.6   Outlook and demand
Figure 17:      Satellite DMB consortium return on investment
Chart 13:       Satellite DMB service subscribers, 2004-2010
7.3             Japan
Table 22:       Moving-picture features of handsets of Japanese mobile operators
by network service
7.3.1   NTT DoCoMo
Table 23:       DoCoMo's subscriber growth (millions)         Looking at a mobile TV business case with metadata         Digital TV broadcasting or live TV over 3G streaming?
7.3.2   KDDI         Hikari Plus TV
Table 24:       Hikari Plus TV service fees
7.3.3   Vodafone KK         Vodafone's TV service has shown early promise
Table 25:       Vodafone KK subscribers
Table 26:       January subscriber additions of Japanese mobile operators
7.3.4   Mobile Television Co
7.3.5   Consumer interest in mobile TV
Chart 14:       Interest in TV functionality and TV on the move
Chart 15-17:Demand for mobile TV in Japan by age and gender
7.4             Korea
Chart 19:       SMS as a percentage of data revenues
7.4.1   SK Telecom         TV on SK’s June service
Chart 20:       'June' packet occupation and hit rate by service type
Chart 21:       June vs EV-DO subscriber growth
Chart 22:       SK's ARPU by handset technology
7.4.2   KTF
Chart 23:       KTF ARPU by technology
7.5             Australia: Optus
7.6             Thailand: AIS
7.7             Europe
7.7.1   Finland         Finland IPDC trials
Table 27:       Pros and cons of IPDC technology
7.7.2   Czech Republic         Eurotel
Table 28:       Eurotel's subscriber breakdown
7.7.3   Italy         TIM
7.7.4   Germany Berlin DVB-H trials         T-Mobile
7.7.5   Sweden
7.7.6   UK         O2         BBC         Vodafone
7.7.7   Norway
7.7.8   Netherlands
7.8             US
7.8.1   MobiTV
Chart 24:       Reasons for purchasing MobiTV

Chapter 8.  Analysis and forecasts
Chart 25:       3G network launches worldwide, Q4 2001-Q2 2005
8.1             New opportunities and the mobile TV value chain
Figure 18:      IP datacast business ecosystem and value chain
8.1.1   Content providers
8.1.2   Content aggregators
8.1.3   IPDC service operator
8.1.4   Broadcast network operators
8.1.5           Telecoms network operators
8.1.6   Telecoms service operators
8.1.7   Handset manufacturers
8.1.8   Consumers
8.2             Mobile TV as a cultural phenomenon
Chart 26:       Mobile phone owners in selected European countries that endorse
the idea of mobile TV
Charts 27-29:Potential mobile TV market in selected European countries
8.3             The business case for mobile TV
Chart 30:       Daily media consumption in selected countries
Chart 31:       Growth in FOMA subscribers
8.4             Mobile TV content services
Chart 32:       Preference of mobile TV channels in Finland
Chart 33:       Preference of mobile TV channels in Sweden
Chart 34:       Preference of mobile TV channels in the UK
8.4.1   Electronic Service Guide
Chart 35:       The amount of use of additional services during VTT's mobile TV
8.4.2   Value-added services
8.5             Market demand and usage patterns
8.5.1   News, entertainment or movies?
8.5.2   Mobile TV consumption by location and time of day
Chart 36:       Mobile TV log-ins by time of day
8.5.3   High endorsement of mobile TV in Europe
Chart 37:       Mobile TV subscribers, 2004-2009
8.6             Revenues
Chart 38:       Will TV-enabled handsets be a serious threat to operators' 
revenues from data content?
Chart 39:       Revenues from mobile TV, 2004-2009
8.6.1   Revenue sharing
8.7             Pricing models
Table 29:       Possible pricing scenarios
Chart 40:       Payment preferences for mobile TV
8.8             Marketing mobile TV
8.8.1   How Japan targets commuters
8.8.2   Eurotel's video services
8.8.3   Recommendations
8.9             Customer targets and segmentation
Chart 41:       Mobile phone ownership by age
Chart 42:       Mobile phone ownership by gender
8.9.1   Learning from the video download market
Table 30:       7700 target end-user groups
Chart 44:       Interest in mobile TV by age
Chart 45:       Interest in mobile TV by gender
8.9.2   Handset penetration is not a pre-requisite market driver
8.10            Will mobile TV cannibalise video-service        revenues?
Figure 19:      How mobile TV fits in with network evolution and other mobile
8.10.1  Streaming vs broadcasting
Table 31:       Cost per MByte for different mobile networks
Table 32:       Approximate download time for a ten-minute video file over
different mobile networks
8.10.2  Complementary or competitive?
Chart 46:       Mobile video revenues, 2004 and 2009

Chapter 9. Risks and recommendations
9.1     Interoperability
9.2     Deployment risk
9.3     Third-party content
9.4     QVGA or QCIF screen formats?
9.5     ECMA script
9.6     Dedicated memory
9.7     Recommendations
9.8     Conclusion

Appendix A. Useful links
Appendix B. About visiongain
Appendix C. Report evaluation form

Companies and organisations mentioned in this report
3G Sweden
Advanced Info Service (AIS)
Association of Terrestrial Digital Broadcasting
Broadcast Mobile Convergence (BMCO)
Centre for Electrotechnical Standards (CENELEC)
CJ Media
Crédit Lyonnais Private Equity
Czech TV
Dai Nippon Printing
Digital Television Group
DVB Project
Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI)
European Broadcasting Union
European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT)
European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI)
FM Tokyo
France Telecom R&D
Fuji TV
Imagination Technologies
Infineon Ventures
Integrated Technology
IP Datacast Forum
Japan Broadcasting Corporation
J-Phone/Vodafone KK
Kansai Electric Power Co
KDDI R&D Laboratories
Keio University
Kiss FM Finland
Korea Broadcasting System (KBS)
Korea Meteorological Administration
Korea Telecom
Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF)
Korean Broadcasting Commission (KBC)
LG Electronics
Manx Telecom
Maspro Denkoh
MediaCorp TV
Ministry of Information and Communication (MIC)
Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications
Ministry of Transport and Communications
Motorola Ventures
MPEG-4 Industry Forum
Munhwa Broadcasting Corp (MBC)
National Council for the Promotion of Terrestrial Digital Broadcasting
NHK Science & Technical Research Laboratories
Nippon TV
NTT Commware
NTT Data
Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
Osaka Chamber of Commerce
Osaka Industry Association
Pentec & Curitel
Philips Research Laboratories
Radio Regulatory Council
Radiocommunication Technology Association
Samsung Electronics Research Institute
Sand Video
SCM Microsystems
Seoul Broadcasting System (SBS)
SK Telecom
Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers
Sony Ericsson
Space Communications Corporation
Space System Loral
Sprint PCS
Telecommunications Advancement Organisation of Japan
Telecommunications Satellite Corporation
TU Media
TV Asahi
TV Cultura
Universal Studios Deutschland
Virgin Mobile USA
VTT Information Technology
Walt Disney
World Wide Web Consortium (W3C)
Yagi Antenna
Yahoo! Japan
Yomiuri Television Entertainment Co


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