Romanian and Bulgarian migrants buoy home growth By Stefan Wagstyl
Stefan Singeorzan, mayor of the village of Feldru in northern Romania, points to a half-built five-storey house and says: "Three years of working abroad to get this far. Another four to finish it off." Nearby stand three freshly completed homes – one painted yellow, one pink and one red – all fitted with modern kitchens and bathrooms and double-glazed windows to keep out the Transylvanian winter. Around Feldru there are scores more, blocking views of the surrounding wooded hills and awaiting the return of their absentee owners. The head of a community that lives largely from farming, Mr Singeorzan has the beleaguered air of a shepherd trying to keep his flock together in a storm as he to struggles to cope with mass emigration. Out of a population of 8,000, some 3,000 Feldruvians now live in western Europe, mostly in Spain. The village has been stripped of people in their 20s and 30s, including the mayor's 24-year-old son and his wife who are working in Spain. "They all say that if they could earn in Romania even half of what they earn in Spain and elsewhere, they would come back. But there are no jobs here," says the mayor. Hundreds of mayors in Romania and Bulgaria are in the same position as the two countries prepare to join the European Union on January 1. So are many of their counterparts in Poland, Slovakia and the Baltic states, which were among the 10 countries that became EU members in 2004. Hundreds of thousands of their young adults have also gone as migrant workers to western Europe. Mihai-Razvan Ungureanu, Romania's foreign minister, says he is happy to see young Romanians going abroad but – like the mayor of Feldru – hopes that one day some will return. "I know some Romanians think emigration is a brain drain but I don't. Romanians living abroad maintain their identity. They work hard and bring Romania a good name. What would be really interesting would be in future to attract back people from abroad as investors." In Feldru, almost all the migrants send money home, investing mainly in houses and land. They visit Feldru for holidays, notably in summer when the village fills with noisy celebrations and with cars driven home to show to friends and relatives. But for the rest of the year, Feldru is quiet: the main street is given over largely to the elderly and to the children left behind by absent parents. Those few people who still work in the village are mostly employed in the public services – or in building houses for the migrants. Even though they are putting their life savings into Feldru, the migrants are making their lives abroad. But, as in Feldru, they are different from previous waves of migrants from eastern Europe, in that they retain close links with their original homes. For the moment, they see themselves – and are seen by others – as temporary migrants. But whether their plans to return home stand the test of time is an open question: the answer depends crucially on how quickly the east-west income gap is closed. For Romania and Bulgaria this gap is even larger than for the 2004 entrants. Average incomes in purchasing power terms are just 28 per cent of the west European level, compared with 45 per cent in central Europe. So the period of migration for Romanians and Bulgarians might turn out to be even longer than for Poles. An estimated 2m Romanians are employed abroad – about 20 per cent of the working-age population. While some emigrated as soon as they could after the collapse of Nicolae Ceausescu's dictatorial regime in 1989, most have gone in the past few years – since the EU granted visa-free travel in 2002. Italy and Spain have been the most popular destination for Romanians, because of similarities in language, culture and climate. As Mr Singeorzan says: "Romanians feel good in these countries." EU governments worry that Romania's accession will prompt another migration wave. Migration experts are cautious about making firm pronouncements after failing to predict correctly the scale of emigration from the current member states of central Europe, especially the numbers moving to the UK and Ireland. However, Romanian demographers do not foresee any spectacular new outflows. As Mr Ungureanu says: "The vast majority of people who might have gone abroad after accession are already working abroad." In addition, the economic pressures pushing emigration are easing. After lurching from crisis to crisis in the 1990s, the Romanian economy is now among the fastest-growing in Europe with an expected real increase in gross domestic product for 2006 of 7 per cent. The country is finally starting to catch up with the more advanced economies of central Europe, with foreign investment pouring in and exports increasing in quantity and quality. A country once best known for its clothes and shoes is now supplying car parts, electronic components and software. Migrants, too, are playing a role in boosting the economy, contributing an estimated €3.5bn ($4.4bn, £2.3bn) to €4bn in remittances – enough to cover almost half the country's 2005 current account deficit. The combined effects of growth and emigration have brought down unemployment from 8.4 per cent in 2002 to 5 per cent. This compares with a 15 per cent level in Poland, the largest source of central and east European migration. But there is still a long way to go. Some 40 per cent of Romanian workers are nominally employed in agriculture, many of them subsistence farmers constituting a vast reserve of underemployment. They, and their children, will need alternative jobs as agriculture is steadily modernised. The launch of the EU's direct aid for farmers will reduce the incentives to go abroad – but not by much because families will organise themselves, as they do already, so that some members mind the farm while others work elsewhere. Economists estimate that at current economic growth rates it could take 20 years before Romanians reach the living standards of today's west Europeans. So migration is likely to remain a feature of Romanian life for some time to come. But will it be temporary or permanent? Previous migration waves out of Romania, notably the large outflows to the US in the early 20th century, are little guide. Today's migrants keep in touch with home as never before, via the internet and mobile phones, including camera phones. Contact will become even easier from next year, when low-cost airlines take advantage of the post-accession liberalisation of the Romanian market and launch cheap flights. In Feldru, Mr Singeorzan hopes villagers will take advantage of these possibilities to keep the cross-border community alive. He rests his optimism mainly in the money that emigrants are ploughing into their new homes – including his own son, who has bought a plot in the nearby town of Bistrica. While the main beneficiaries of these investments are the immediate families, the village as a whole gains from the jobs created, especially in construction. "It is local people doing the building work," he says. Money the village has collected from the sale of building permits has meanwhile helped to renovate the school and the cultural centre. A new mayoral office is under construction. The whitewashed buildings of the Orthodox, Roman Catholic and Baptist churches have all been carefully modernised with the support of contributions from abroad. Feldru also boasts a new ambulance and a fire engine, courtesy of migrant workers in Austria. In Spain, some 400 people from Feldru have settled in a single village – the community of Meco, about 60km from Madrid – and have encouraged the Spanish mayor to establish twinning arrangements with Feldru. The link has brought Feldru useful information about operating inside the EU. But with every year that passes, the migrants develop stronger ties inside their new countries. Last year, the number of children born abroad to Feldru villagers (37) exceeded the number born at home (36). "It's the first time the figures have come out this way," says Mr Singeorzan, who keeps careful track of his citizens. Altogether, the village has about 150 children abroad, including those who have moved with their parents, compared with about 800 at home. The parents recognise the importance of supporting their children's ties with the home country. The Meco community has asked the Romanian authorities for a Romanian language teacher and offered to pay the salary. But, however good their Romanian, the children as they get older tend to go to college in western Europe. As the figures show, most migrants leave their children in Feldru, usually in the care of grandparents. But this brings its own difficulties. Mr Singeorzan says that school examination results have declined sharply, with just half of those aged 14 and 15 passing their year-end tests in 2006, compared with 80-90 per cent in the past. Some of the children suffer because their parents are away, he says. Others stop studying because all they want is to go abroad like their older siblings. Also, teachers have started giving private lessons and perhaps putting less effort into the normal classes, says the mayor. Mr Singeorzan hopes that EU money will help to make the village a better place to live. The union has already financed the introduction of piped water – for €1.8m, the equivalent of five years' budget for the village. Now Feldru is angling for a communal sewage system, an even bigger project, and for money to put down asphalt on its dirt side-roads. But the mayor knows that without its people, Feldru will wither away. He says: "Ideally, nobody would leave – and they would work here. But the ideal situation does not exist. So we are making the best of it. We are encouraging people to work abroad but to find ways to stay in contact. We will know in a few years' time if it works out." Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006 "FT" and the "Financial Times" are trademarks of The Financial Times. -- ______________ EuroAtlantic Club monitoring Romania's journey towards the EU http://www.europe.org.ro/euroatlantic_club/ mail to: P.O.Box 13-166, Bucharest 011737 e-mail to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** sustineti [romania_eu_list] prin 2% din impozitul pe 2005 - detalii la http://www.doilasuta.ro *** Yahoo! 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