"The good, the bad and the ugly"... Unde e Romania in ecuatia asta? "The good"? Cu siguranta nu. "The bad"? "Been there, done that already", cum ar zice americanul. "The ugly"? Absolut, si asta multumita minunatei noastre clase politice si maretului ei conducator. Articolul complet la http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/21/poland-hungary-latvia-economy-imf-opinions- columnists-nouriel-roubini.html. ---------------------------- Vali "Noble blood is an accident of fortune; noble actions are the chief mark of greatness." "When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Aboneaza-te la <mailto:[email protected]> ngo_list: o alternativa moderata (un pic) la [ngolist] Please consider the environment - do you really need to print this email? http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/21/poland-hungary-latvia-economy-imf-opinions- columnists-nouriel-roubini.html Eastern Europe's Economy <http://search.forbes.com/search/colArchiveSearch?author=nouriel+and+roubini &aname=Nouriel+Roubini> Nouriel Roubini, 10.22.09, 12:01 AM EDT The good, the bad and the ugly... Fears of a full-fledged regional financial crisis across <http://topics.forbes.com/Eastern%20Europe> Eastern Europe have eased, calmed by a strong IMF presence, hefty external assistance to those in need and a general improvement in global risk appetite. Nevertheless, the region is not out of the woods. The specter of a Latvian devaluation still looms, banking stress continues and rising political risk in several countries with IMF programs is a concern. [...] The Ugly: Political Uncertainty Threatens IMF Programs
There is no doubt that IMF programs in some of the region's most vulnerable economies--Bosnia, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine--have played an important role in calming fears of a regional financial crisis. Even with IMF programs in place, however, these economies are not immune to crisis. Of particular concern are the difficulties these governments might face in meeting loan conditions as they try to balance electoral ambitions against economic realities. Will they adhere to their IMF programs? If they don't, will the IMF keep lending anyway? There are no easy answers to these questions. If financing is halted, these countries could again be facing full-blown capital account crises. Compared to practices during the Asian Crisis, the IMF has shown a new-found flexibility and leniency in dealing with program countries. The Fund dropped its request for land reform in Ukraine and approved wider budget deficit targets than originally agreed in Romania, Hungary, Latvia, Serbia and Ukraine. However, the lender's flexibility is not boundless. [...] Romania has emerged as the latest hot spot and could put the IMF in a difficult position. The abrupt collapse of the government in October has left a political vacuum and raised fears over the country's ability to adhere to its 20 billion euro loan agreement. The conclusion of the second review of the IMF program is scheduled for December and involves a disbursement of 1.5 billion euros. Some analysts expect that payment to be delayed. The concern is that Romania's uncertain political situation could affect the viability of the entire program. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at <http://topics.forbes.com/New%20York%20University> New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, is a weekly columnist for Forbes. (Read all of his columns <http://search.forbes.com/search/colArchiveSearch?author=nouriel+and+roubini &aname=Nouriel+Roubini> here.) Mary Stokes, senior research analyst at RGE, and JelenaVukotic, research analyst at RGE,assisted in the writing of this column. (C) 2009 Forbes.com
