On 13/08/2007 07:18 Bill Woodcock wrote:
I said it was "likely." It's a prediction of what will happen in the
future. It's based on my experience of AppleTalk, DECnet, XNS, and
Netware taking that long to fade away.
I'm not sure those particular transitions are entirely comparable to
IP since their use was more autonomous and there were much lower
numbers involved in their time. The accounts for arpanet to TCP
transition hold more interest for me, in which there were
organisations who did not adopt and were left in the dark when NCP was
finally abandoned. I think this situation is more likely, but the
number of people left in the dark will be significantly higher - this
is their own decision though and don't think it should influence
AfriNIC policy.
How long would you have predicted it would take for IPv4 to fade away, had
you been making the prediction in 1995?
"fade away" is a broad term. The concept of transition (or dual-phased
implementation) is generally gradual, but where IPv4 has no ability to
contact the IPv6 network (the reverse is sort-of true) the falloff
should be more exponential from the point where IPv6 gathers end-user
momentum (deployment). The failing here is the human desire to keep
everyone safe from still being on IPv4 - frankly I feel there is no
time to do this any longer. The real question is where the right
pressure should be in places (Google, online banking etc) which will
ultimately be responsible for end-user pressure to their upstreams.
Without those places doing first adoption of IPv6 it certainly will fail.
> Do your self a favor and join an ARIN list and follow the
> discussions there. THEY are gearing for definite switch dates.
Do yourself a favor and examine the authorship of the document you're
referring to.
I accidentally read your name as "Woodstock" which made my
pre-research fail. I blame the flu, or my interest in beer and music.
> As for dual stacked networks, these are a transition mechanism in order
> for migrations to take place in a seamless and coordinated way.
> Implementing or working on IPv6 systems without a dual stack would be
> impossibly unfeasible.
Thank you. That was exactly my point. I'm glad you've reiterated it in a
way that works for you.
No problem :)
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