Dan,
On 2009-12-05 19:09, Dan Jen wrote:
> Hello,
>
>> > All of the recent proposals and rrg discussion seem to focus on
>> > re-empowering aggregation by attempting to pinpoint the reasons for
>> > deaggregation and dealing with them. A lot of reasons have been brought
>> > up, such as PI usage, ingress TE, avoiding renumbering, etc. Yet, it is
>> > unclear how much each 'cause' contributes to overall deaggregation.
>>
>> Does it matter? As long as the solution handles all (or most) of them, that
>> should be all that's needed. Are there significant causes of expansion that
>> aren't handled by separation of location and identity? If so, I think we need
>> to hear about them ASAP.
>>
>
> Here's why it might matter. Some proposals address some, but not all of
> the alleged causes of expansion. Imagine if we knew how much each cause
> contributed to expansion, and realized that one or some of those causes
> didn't really contribute much to expansion at all. Proposals that
> didn't address these 'problems' wouldn't be subject to such a criticism
> anymore.
>
> On the flipside, if one of these causes was the found to be the main
> contributor of expansion, we certainly would make solving this problem a
> MUST.
I'm not sure that follows. Although there is some long term smoothness
in DFZ growth vs Internet size, this conceals many non-linear effects
of the way the topology has evolved. That makes predicting the future
from the past very hard; as the recent Internet Observatory report
shows, the topology is still changing in nature (and the causes are
economic as much as they are technical, so even harder to predict).
If you can't predict quantitatively the effect of each cause, it's
hard to prioritize which causes to tackle.
That said, do you have any ideas on how to analyze the historical data
to clearly separate and quantify the effect of each cause of DFZ growth?
My personal view is that we should focus on quite high level goals
that don't depend on topological or business details. Quoting myself:
"in addition to ... minimising the number of prefixes originated
by each AS, it is also highly desirable that the large majority of
ASes should continue to be origin-only systems providing no transit."
Brian
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