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Oil, metals fall a correction - not a meltdown Mon May 15, 2006 3:44 PM ET By Matthew Robinson and Barani Krishnan NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil and metals prices may extend their sudden slide as economic worries trigger a speculative rout, but the record rally in energy and commodities isn't dead yet, experts said. Crude and metals prices have smashed records this year as hedge funds seeking to cash in on their searing returns poured billions of dollars into the sectors, and Monday's setback signals a correction, not a meltdown. Crude futures, which fell 3.7 percent to $69.41 a barrel on Monday, could drop as low as $60 a barrel, according to hedge fund managers and analysts, but a rebound is likely as global production capacity constraints resurface. Gold and copper prices, which also fell more than 3 percent, may take a corrective hit, but long-term Asian demand will eventually help push prices higher, analysts said. Oil plummeted from record highs above $75 a barrel last month after the International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand growth forecast and a University of Michigan survey showed high gasoline prices pushing U.S. consumer optimism to the lowest point since Hurricane Katrina. The weaker demand forecast may push hedge funds, which have increased their exposure to the energy sector as prices soared in recent years, to sell off. "You had to slow it down. We view this as a natural short-term correction," said Erik Simpson, managing director of Vantage Advisors, which runs the Vantage Energy Hedge Fund. "I think that while it would be very correct and natural to have a move down another 10-15 percent to bring you down to $60, overall longer-term markets should remain well-supported." Constraints in global refining and production capacity -- which helped push up prices to record levels last month -- are not likely to ease soon and mean the sharp sell-off in oil prices may be short-lived. "People are putting money in the energy space because of capacity constraints, they believe that Asia is growing fast and consuming oil and a lot of other commodities at a healthy rate and it's going to take some time for capacity constraints to be addressed," said Mike Wittner, head of energy market research for Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank. Worries about crude shipments from key suppliers like Nigeria, plagued by civil strife, and Iran, stuck in a deadlock with the West over its nuclear ambitions, have also helped support high-flying crude prices. "At some point in the future, it is going to be a huge buying opportunity," Wittner added. METALS TANK Slumping metals prices are setting the ground for the next trading rally, analysts said. "When you get the kind of activity that gold, silver and copper have been exhibiting over the last couple of weeks, it's just unsustainable," said Adam Sarhan, who heads The Sarhan Analysis, a commentary on financial markets. Gold hit a 26-year high of $730 on Friday. But on Monday, gold for June delivery <GCM6> on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down $26.80, or 3.8 percent, at $685.00 an ounce. Spot gold <XAU=> was trading at $680.60/681.60, against late Friday's $714.10/$715.10. July copper <HGN6> sank 11.75 cents, or 3 percent, to settle $3.7465 a lb. It hit a life-of-contract high of $4.04 last week. London Metal Exchange's three-months copper <MCU3> settled $270 lower at $8,190 a tone. Sarhan said selling pressure could push gold down to as low as $650 an ounce, the starting point of an extended rally that began two months ago. "We will move our stop to $634.32," he said. "So far, it's a healthy bull market. Nothing has changed. It's just a normal correction within a longer term bull market." A Wall Street commodities broker put the downside for gold at $662 an ounce and copper at $3.34 a lb, based on 20-day moving averages. "Part of the sell-off now could be due to portfolio managers trying to balance things off, especially if they're getting squeezed on the equities front," the broker said. "There could also be counterplays coming from the fixed income side. |
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