TINS Rp 15.000 -- Rp 17.000 bisa saja terjadi asal

harga timah naik terus. Hanya Tuhan yang tahu.

Good Bless You 


--- EKA SUWANDANA <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Kalo asumsi 10000$/MT harga wajar Rp9000. Saya nggak
> berani lebih dari itu. Ingat di laporan keuangan yg
> bisa di download di jsx.co.id disitu disisipkan
> harga rata2 jualan, harga pokok penjualan. Utk harga
> pokok penjualan trendnya ikut naik, seiring dgn
> naiknya Jumlah tanah yg digali. tahun lalu (coba cek
> lagi) 2 Jt MT tanah , sekarang 3 Jt MT tanah digali
> utk dapatkan 40000MT Timah. So itu memang seperti
> direksinya akui, tanda2 deposit terbukti, sudah
> habis, dan kedepan ongkos angkat TIN juga makin
> mahal.
>    
>   So kalo ada yg bilang TINS bakal 9000-10000, yakin
> sampai, kalo ada yg bilang 15000-17000, IT'S BIG
> BULLSHIT!
> 
> Investor Bonex <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>     Berdasarkan news ini seharusnya pakar2 dan
> jagoan FA waroeng OB (P. EKA, P Halim, Mr FS, dkk)
> bisa memprediksi brp sebenarnya fair value TINS for
> Y2007.
>    
>   Asumsi Y2007 : 
>   Avrg tin = 12,000USD/MT
> Production = 40,000MT/yr (base case : 45,000MT)
>    
>   thanks
>    
>   
> Teddy Halim <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>       
> Wah jadi dong ni harga TINS rock and roll, naik
> kenceng, 8000, 9000 dan balik ke 11000 spt bbrp thn
> lalu?
> 
>   Financial Times FT.com                    
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>      Markets
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>     Indonesia's tin output to fall sharply   By John
> Aglionby in Jakarta 
>   Published: January 30 2007 17:57 | Last updated:
> January 30 2007 17:57
> 
>     Tin production in Indonesia, the world's largest
> exporter, will fall by up to a third this year due
> to new government regulations to clean up the
> industry, the head of the country's largest
> manufacturer predicted on Tuesday.
>   Thobrani Alwi, the president of Timah, estimated
> that production would drop to 80,000-90,000 tonnes
> from 120,000 tonnes last year because the new rules
> will force the majority of exporters out of business
> for months and some permanently.
>   From February 23 tin exporters will have to
> register with the trade ministry and pay the
> government royalties of 3 per cent. Registration
> will require having one's own licensed production
> area or sourcing from a licensed contractor and an
> approved environmental impact assessment study. Many
> smelters buy tin from the thousands of people mining
> tin illegally with no environmental controls. 
>   The price of tin on the London Metal Exchange
> soared to a near 20-year high of $12,425 last week
> after the rules were announced. It traded at about
> $12,250 a tonne on Tuesday, up 64 per cent over the
> past 12 months.
>   Of the 39 Indonesian tin producers and exporters,
> only two currently meet all the regulations.
>   One of them is Timah. Mr Thobrani estimated that
> about a dozen of those shut down might meet all the
> regulations. 
>   "Some might be able to restart after a few
> months," he told the Financial Times. "Others might
> choose to work with Timah but many will probably
> have to close."
>   Illegal mining last year accounted for about half
> of Indonesia's production.
>   A multi-departmental government team is in Bangka
> Belitung, where all the illegal miners are based,
> helping them assess their options. 
>   Mr Thobrani said a "reasonable" price for tin was
> $12,000 to $13,000 a tonne.
>   He said Timah might increase its capacity if the
> price rose to about $13,000 a tonne or if LME
> stocks, currently 11,555 tonnes, dropped
> dramatically.
>   Timah's capacity is 50,000 tonnes and it has at
> least 10 years of reserves.
>   Global demand, which has risen in recent years
> since tin started replacing lead for soldering, is
> predicted to be about 365,000 tonnes this year.
>   Tin is also used in cans, alloys and glass
> production. 
>   China is the world's largest producer but keeps
> much for domestic consumption. Indonesian tin is
> usually of a higher quality. 
> 
>   Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007 
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>   "FT" and "Financial Times" are trademarks of the
> Financial Times. Privacy policy | Terms
> © Copyright The Financial Times Ltd 2007. 
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> ---------------------------------
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