Started yesterday most banking shares all over the world plunged following
sharp decline in HSBCÂ’s shares.
HSBC Holdings stock shed 2% after it said provision for bad loans would be
sharply higher than analysts expected.
The impact is enormous as JP.Morgan Chase losing 1.3%, American Express down
nearly 1%, while BNP Paribas slipped slightly and
ABN Amro Holding closed flat.
The main reason for HSBC high provision is from its US mortgage loan. HSBC
starts to bought billions of dollar of US mortgage loan from other lenders
lured by high interest rates they carry. But things suddenly turn to the worst
as interest rates start to climb up then these loans turn sour quickly. HSBC
said yesterday that charges and provisions would be 20% higher then expected by
analysts (US1.78 billion more). The provision is needed to cover both loans
that had soured and those that will run into problems as borrowers face higher
rates on adjustable-rate mortgages.
Impact on Indonesian banking stocks:
There might be negative sentiment in short term for Indonesian banking stocks
because emerging market is usually considered more risky than well developed
market. If banking stocks plunged in developed market then emerging market
banking stocks are usually impacted. We have seen some sell off for Indonesian
banking stocks such as BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, BNGA and BNII.
Recommendation:
We still view that these negative sentiment is temporary because fundamentally,
our banking industry is set for improvement in 2007 and investors will realize
that the correction actually provides opportunity to re-enter banking sectors.
However, we see that further correction will still linger but to a lesser
amount. We still prefer BNII for its undervalued price and BMRI for its NPL
recovery
-----Original Message-----
From: "Oskar Syahbana"<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: 2/9/07 10:22:58 PM
To: "[email protected]"<[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [saham] Re: TIDAK AKAN ADA RUMUSAN...
Halo Pak Gitto
Terima kasih memang iya ga jualan pak. Yang jualan itu kinki yess ato
siapaaa gitu, nick-nya agak aneh (loh kok ga muncul lagi di sini?).
Dan iya saya sering memperhatikan Pak Oentoeng, hebat dia membaca
pergerakan bandar hehehe. Masih harus banyak belajar lagi, padahal
saya udah matengin itu monitor sampe lumutan juga belom turun-turun
ilmunya Pak Oen ;-P. Mau dikuantifikasi juga mbuh saya harus
kuantifikasi yang mana, elmu belom nyampe hehehe.
Eh BBRI bukannya hari ini dibanting juga bareng telkom? Saya ga pernah
merhatiin saham perbankan sih pak, tapi yang saya tau sektor perbankan
merah berdarah, mungkin gara-gara suku bunga diturunkan ya? Eh mbuh
lah aku hehehe ga pernah merhatiin sektor ini.
Hari ini emang gila bener nih IHSG dibanting, gara-gara TLKM semua net
sell. Kayaknya FM pada unloading barang di sini untuk beli Obligasi RI
Global yang bunganya nyam - nyam, 6% bo! (vs 5%an interest rate The
Fed). Mudah-mudahan stok jangka pendek saya ga ikut2an di hantem [-o<
On 2/9/07, gitto kurniasanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> waaaah yang saya tahu pak oskar ga pernah jualan koq... beliau hanya
> menekankan seneng pake TEKNIKAL...seperti halnya pak OENTOENG dengan
> BOCORANNYA... saya mah DEMOKRASI PANCASILA aja deh... kalau saudara
> perhatikan ada ko yang HANYA JUALAN tanpa ngasih TERAWANG... kalo udah
> KEJADIAN terus diAKUAKU....hayoo ngaku om... senen kayaknya BBRI uhuuuy
neh
> bersama dedengkotnya ihsg...HOPEFULLY...soalnya tadi moengoet(",)
>
> salam hangat,
> gitto kurniasanto
>
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> wahh klo invest di saham pake model matematis black
> scholes ampe ekonofisika brarti kita g perlu baca
> koran lagi y utk maen saham?atw malah berita2 yg ada
> dijadiin variabel2 utnk pnentuan harga saham nya.
> ketik c spasi d, cape deeeeh
> --- Oskar Syahbana <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > Loh?? Saya nggak jualan pak. Salah sasaran tuch
> > pernyataannya. Baca
> > ulang mail-mail dari awal deh. Cuma meluruskan kalau
> > sudah banyak FM
> > besar pun mereka mengandalkan model matematis yang
> > bapak katakan sesat
> > itu.
> >
> > On 2/9/07, andrew wijaya <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Ngapain ngajak orang menjadi sesat apalagi bagi
> > mereka
> > > yg baru belajar saham. Kalo jualan jangan
> > dirubrik ini
> > > dong? Emang ini milis untuk jualan....
> > >
> > >
> > > --- Oskar Syahbana <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > > Bacaan lebih jauh tentang LTCM:
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTCM#A_deeper_understanding_of_the_risks_taken_by_LTCM
> > > >
> > > > Saya post deh di sini:
> > > >
> > > > Also, if the fund had been less levered, it
> > would
> > > > have weathered the
> > > > spike in volatility and credit risk: In the
> > end, the
> > > > idea of LTCM's
> > > > directional bets was correct, in that the
> > values of
> > > > government bonds
> > > > did eventually converge. Due to the high
> > leverage,
> > > > however, this only
> > > > happend after the firm's assets were wiped out
> > > >
> > > > On 2/7/07, Oskar Syahbana
> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > Halo Mas Widhie
> > > > >
> > > > > Bener, LTCM bahkan kalau engga salah di
> > backup
> > > > sama black dan scholes
> > > > > serta myron yang mengeluarkan black-scholes
> > > > theory. Permasalahannya di
> > > > > sini ada dua. Satu, sistem money management
> > > > mereka amburadul (kalo ga
> > > > > salah ini sudah sangat sering di bahas di
> > berbagai
> > > > buku tentang
> > > > > trading dan investasi). Dua, sistem
> > black-scholes
> > > > yang dipakai punya
> > > > > satu kesalahan fundamental, yaitu mereka
> > > > menggunakan asumsi bahwa
> > > > > pembentukan harga di pasar saham
> > berdistribusi
> > > > normal (dalam artian
> > > > > kemungkinan naik dan turun itu kurang lebih
> > sama
> > > > dengan kemungkinan
> > > > > terbesar itu harga diam, infonya bisa dilihat
> > di
> > > > sini:
> > > > >
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
> > > > ). Sedangkan
> > > > > kenyataannya, harga saham di pasar saham kan
> > bukan
> > > > berdistribusi
> > > > > normal. Terkadang probabilita naik lebih
> > besar
> > > > dibandingkan dengan
> > > > > probabilita turun atau sebaliknya.
> > > > >
> > > > > Jadi menurut saya ada human error juga di
> > sini, MM
> > > > dan penentuan basis
> > > > > teori yang salah ;-) Dengan neural network
> > hal-hal
> > > > semacam ini
> > > > > *seharusnya* bisa diminimalisir. Begitu
> > kira-kira
> > > > >
> > > > > On 2/7/07, Widhie !!! <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Ingat, LTCM itu di-backup sama
> >....
>
>
>
--
Oskar Syahbana
http://permagnus.com/ -- A Financial site with a human touch
Please send private messages to iservasia[at]gmail.com
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