Friends, Baiknya hati2 dgn berita ini, sedari kemarin berita bagus semua. 2 hari terakhir IHSG loncat2 menuju 1800. Padahal mulai senin kmrn kebanyakan analis bilang minggu ini...IHSG cenderung terkoreksi lagi.....
ciaooo --- Giri <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > dari KZ > > > > > > > > From: Wuddy Warsono, CLSA > > To: Wuddy Warsono, CLSA > > Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007 9:03 AM > > Subject: CL INDO: Indo rubber plays, property and > BUMI roadshow feedback > > > > > > > > Good morning. > > > > I have just came back from a 3-day roadshow in > Singapore where our property analyst Daniel Oen > presented his bullish view on Indo property sector. > Daniel had also recently written a big report on > Indo most liquid property stock Ciputra Development > (CTRA IJ), wgich is one of his top picks in the > sector. Iwan Winarta from property consulting > company Procon Indah joined us in the roadshow. For > today and tomorrow, Daniel and Iwan are doing the > Hong Kong leg of the roadshow. > > > > Response is generally positive. Indo property sector > is definitely under-owned and under-researched. This > may change as Indo physical property prices are now > one of Asian biggest laggards. Many clients were > surprised to learn how cheap Indo properties are. > Indo's CBD land prices (at ~US$1,700psm) is 60% > cheaper than pre-crisis level (in US$ term) and 50% > cheaper than Manila and Bangkok prices. Super luxury > condo in Jakarta looks cheap at US$2,000 psm, a > fraction of Singapore prices and half the prices in > Bangkok. > > > > By the way, Indonesians still form the largest pool > of foreign buyers of Singapore properties. > Purchasing power is arguably there, especially for > the higher end segment. What is lack is confident. > Improving macro outlook and potential short term > catalyst (like allowing foreigners to buy Indo > properties) may boost the confident. > > > > And Indo macro outlook is positive: rates are > falling, urbanization trend continues, and Indo > banks are ready to liquefy the economy. Already, > office occupancy level in Jakarta has been quietly > moving up: 78.8% in 03, 79.4% in 04, 82.8% in 05, > and 84.9% in 06. Rental apartment also saw > increasing average occupancy rate: 69.4% in 04, > 67.7% in 05, and 74.5% in 06. > > > > Of special interest from clients is BBCA's recent > move to launch a 5 year fixed rate mortgage @ 10% > (pilot project, but I see no reason why this can't > be successful). This is both ground breaking and > unprecedented, likely to stimulate demand for > property. Competition is heating up. Already, BNII > is offering a fixed rate program within a 5 year > loan term @ 12.5%. > > > > > > Attached in the email: > > > > With rubber price bouncing back up, Wilianto > highlighted rubber plays in Indonesia. There are > basically 2 them: > > > > · Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP IJ): 50% rubber, 50% > palm oil (planted area). As a % of the revenues, > rubber contributes 65% and CPO 35% at UNSP. > > > > · London Sumatra (LSIP IJ): 22% rubber, 70% > palm oil, 8% other crops. > > > > Despite rubber plantation is currently producing > ~25% more profits/ha than CPO plantations, both UNSP > and LSIP are trading at big discount to pure CPO > play AALI. We also believe that CPO price will stay > high in near term: supply situation for CPO, as in > rubber, will remain tight in next five years. Per > capita consumption of edible oils in China and India > remain low at 19.7kg and 11.9kg compared to 43.7kg > in Hongkong and 50.7kg in USA, which represent a > large future potential. > > > > James Gruber highlighted that nickel prices continue > to soar to new highs with depleted inventories > unlikely to be replenished soon, providing good > support to prices. Strong prices are not captured in > equity valuations. BUY both INCO (INCO IJ) and Antam > (ANTM IJ). At our forecast price for nickel > (US$11.50/lb), INCO and ANTM are trading at 6.6x 07 > PE and 5.7x 07 PE respectively. However, using > current nickel spot price of US$17.40/lb, INCO is at > 3.6x 07 PE and ANTM will be at 3.3x 07 PE!! > > > > Others: > > > > CLSA hosted a lunch meeting with a prominent Indo > business figure Mr Sofyan Wanandi. Mr Wanandi is > also the President of APINDO (Indonesian Association > of the Businesspeople) and an advisor to President > SBY. > > > > Key takeaways: > > > > > > Tax Law: Expect an announcement by May which will > include a 500 bps reduction in tax rates. This could > be a staggered cut or all in one. It will also be > accompanied by a tax amnesty. Lower tax rates add to > profit growth outlook and should be excellent news > for the stock market and for future investment > decisions. > > Investment Law: Now waiting to be signed. > > > > Labor Law: Under discussion still but increasingly > identified as the key area of reform. On this topic, > there is now agreement from unions on the need for > change. Onerous termination provisions will be > slashed and replaced by unemployment insurance. > Regional wage boards will be replaced by a national > minimum wage and there will be provisions for > enterprise bargaining. Pak Sofyan also identified > this reform as key if investment spending is to > increase. It is also key to President SBY's hopes of > reelection in 2009. He needs the country to be > adding jobs by then. > > > > > > BUMI roadshow feedback, by Michael Chambers: > > > > Mikehas been a way for the past ten days, on the > road with Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ). They met clients > in the UK, US and Middle East. This is a remarkable > comeback story. In 2003 the stock was a super > performer as it gained control of the key KPC coal > asset followed by a sharp rise in coal prices. After > some missteps in 2006 with an attempted divestment > of its coal assets and a failed merger with Energi > Mega (ENRG IJ), the focus is currently once again on > coal. Bumi has substantial debts and is looking to > sell a 30% stake in the coal assets to clear these. > The bidders include Indian, Japanese and maybe > European utilities looking to hedge coal exposure. > As in 2003, coal markets are working in Bumi's > favor. Rising coal price expectations are supporting > the === message truncated === ____________________________________________________________________________________ Sucker-punch spam with award-winning protection. Try the free Yahoo! Mail Beta. http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/mailbeta/features_spam.html DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI. Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk unsubscribe dari milis saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk subscribe ke milis saham Yahoo! 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