Irwan Ariston Napitupulu <[EMAIL PROTECTED] com> wrote: Pak Lee, Harga timah di LME tanggal 21 Peb 2007 Cash: USD13850/MT 3Mth: USD13795/MT Kalau saya ambil rata2 saja harga konservatif untuk tahun 2007 ini sebesar USD13500/MT (harusnya bisa lebih tinggi lagi karena diperkirakan antara demand dan supply terjadi defisit 30000MT) maka hitungan kasar saya untuk TINS: (asumsi produksi 50000MT, kurs Rp9000/USD, COGS USD8000/MT) Rev: USD13500 x 50000 x Rp9000 = Rp6.075.000. 000.000 COGS: USD8000 x 50000 x Rp9000 = Rp3.600.000. 000.000 Gross profit: Rp.2.475.000. 000.000 G&A Exp: Rp290.000.000. 000 Operating income: Rp2.185.000. 000.000 Other exp: Rp35.000.000. 000 Net income: Rp2.150.000. 000.000 Tax: Rp645.000.000. 000 Net income after tax: Rp1.505.000. 000.000 Jumlah saham beredar: 503.301.500 Future EPS: Rp2.990/share PE 8x, target price: Rp23.922 atau dibulatkan Rp24000. Ini kalau kita asumsikan harga rata2 timah tahun 2007 ini hanya sebesar USD13500/MT yg menurut dugaan saya akan lebih tinggi dari itu. Saat ini saya lihat harga TINS hanya Rp10.450 Market cap: Rp5.259.500. 675.000 Market cap ANTM (Rp9.300) saat ini: Rp17.741.525. 135.000 Market cap INCO (Rp41.950) saat ini: Rp41.682.940. 930.400 Kalau harga TINS di Rp24000, maka market cap nya: Rp12.079.236. 000.000. Angka yg masih jauh dibawah market cap ANTM dan INCO. Karenanya saya lihat target price TINS di Rp24.000 tidak akan sulit dicapai dalam semester pertama 2007 ini. Selamat berinvestasi. jabat erat, Irwan Ariston Napitupulu -- bu ana <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Timah $ 20.000,- ? harga TINS bisa berapa ya? > > Rp 45.500,- seperti INCO kali ya ? > > > > --- kzvs rx <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Tin May Rise to $20,000 on Indonesian Output > Slump, > > ITRI Says > > > > > > By Claire Leow > > > > March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Tin may rise to $20,000 a > > metric ton if supply from Indonesia, the world's > > second largest producer of the metal, falls to > less > > than a forecast 90,000 tons this year, industry > > group > > ITRI Ltd. said. > > > > ``There's more upside potential than downside risk > > and > > $20,000 tin is possible,'' said Peter Kettle, > > manager > > for statistics and market studies at ITRI Ltd., > > formerly known as the International Tin Research > > Institute. ``How things could go wrong is if > > production would be lower than 90,000 tons,'' > Kettle > > said today by telephone from Indonesia where he's > > visiting tin mines in Bangka Belitung province. > > > > ITRI is funded by producers of the metal and has > > analyzed the tin market for 74 years. Last month, > > ITRI > > and commodity analysis company CRU said in a joint > > report that Indonesian output will drop by about > 30 > > percent to 90,000 tons in 2007. > > > > Tin jumped last month to its highest since at > least > > 1989 on speculation that Indonesia's efforts to > curb > > illegal mining will crimp global supply. > Inventories > > monitored by the London Metal Exchange have > dropped > > 21 > > percent this year to 10,190 tons. > > > > Tin for delivery in three months on the LME gained > > $300, or 2.3 percent, to $13,400 a ton at 1:03 > p.m. > > in > > London. > > > > Global demand for tin may rise 4 percent this > year, > > compared with 9 percent last year, Kettle said. > > > > ``Last year Indonesia produced more than 120,000 > > tons,'' he said. ``Now, PT Timah is the only > > producer > > that's authorized to export and its production > will > > be > > 48,000 to 50,000 tons. That's a huge difference.'' > > > > > Timah's President-Director Thobrani Alwi said Feb. > > 23 > > he expects the metal to rise as high as $14,000 > this > > year, and for Timah to produce 45,000 tons of tin > in > > 2007. > > > > > > > > > ____________________________________________________________________________________ > > We won't tell. Get more on shows you hate to love > > (and love to hate): Yahoo! TV's Guilty Pleasures > > list. > > http://tv.yahoo.com/collections/265 > > > > > > > ____________________________________________________________________________________ > TV dinner still cooling? > Check out "Tonight's Picks" on Yahoo! TV. > http://tv.yahoo.com/ > ________________________________________________________ Sekarang dengan penyimpanan 1GB http://id.mail.yahoo.com/ ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Great things are happening at Yahoo! Groups. 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