The message is clear. On the longer term, prices should fall back towards
30,000 usd/ton. Better be prudent and reduce exposure to mining stocks....
Just in case..
Herman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Nickel is now expected to average 48,000 usd in the second quarter, 40,000
usd in the third quarter and 35,000 usd in the last three months of the year
compared with previous forecasts for 36,750 usd, 30,750 usd and 27,750 usd
respectively.
Tin prices, which today struck a new all time high of 14,575 usd, are
predicted to average 15,000 usd in the second quarter, 16,000 usd in the
third quarter and 15,000 in the final quarter of the year from 10,800 usd,
10,000 usd and 9,500 usd respectively
Barclays ups most metal price forecasts for 2007 but sees zinc at lower
levels
03.26.07, 12:30 PM ET
LONDON (AFX) - Barclays Capital has raised its nickel and tin price forecasts
for the second quarter amid a bout of supply problems.
However, the investment bank has shaved its estimate for zinc prices as
exports from China have surged. Further, 'stock inflows' of zinc into London
Metal Exchange certified warehouses forced the bank to rethink its earlier
estimates.
'While we expect nickel prices to correct from their current record levels,
delays and disruptions to bringing new supply to the market and the
critically low level of LME nickel stocks continues to underpin prices,' said
Barclays (nyse: BCS - news - people ) analysts in their latest report.
Critically low nickel stocks stored in LME-certified warehouses are so
depleted now that the volume available to the market would not be enough for
one day's worth of global consumption.
Nickel is now expected to average 48,000 usd in the second quarter, 40,000
usd in the third quarter and 35,000 usd in the last three months of the year
compared with previous forecasts for 36,750 usd, 30,750 usd and 27,750 usd
respectively.
This is the second time Barclays has raised its price forecast for nickel.
Tin prices, which today struck a new all time high of 14,575 usd, are
predicted to average 15,000 usd in the second quarter, 16,000 usd in the
third quarter and 15,000 in the final quarter of the year from 10,800 usd,
10,000 usd and 9,500 usd respectively.
'The ongoing supply side problems from Indonesia's Bangka island in an
environment of positive demand and low inventories should support tin prices
higher through 2007,' said the report.
A government crackdown on illegal small-scale mining in Indonesia, the
world's second biggest producer trailing China, is still hitting production
levels.
Indonesian officials have reportedly indicated that private tin smelters look
unlikely to receive export permits in the near future after being ordered to
obtain new mining permits.
However, Barclays has cut its zinc forecasts, with prices now expected to
reach 3,000 usd in the second quarter, 2,800 in the third quarter and 2,500
usd in the last three months of 2007, down from a previous forecast of 4,100
usd, 3,500 usd and 3,300 usd respectively.
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
as/slm
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