Menurut saya ini cuma teknikal saja. Memang kalau dilihat banyak yang dapat izin ekspor, tapi harus diingat yang boleh ekspor kalau (1) mereka punya konsesi, atau (2) kerjasama dengan yang punya konsesi, dan (3) dalam batangan timah dengan kemurnian 99% ke atas. Orang cuma merasa kuatir -- jangan2 ini atau itu.... dengan keluarnya banyak izin ekspor.
Coba kita simak peraturan pemerintah..... Walaupun pemerintah sudah memberikan banyak izin ekspor, tapi yang benar2 punya lahan atau konsesi, tidak banyak. Yang benar2 ada cuma PT Timah, sedangkan Kobatin lahannya tidak banyak/kecil -- timahnya sudah mau habis (sudah tidak ekonomis). Nah, yang kecil2 itu gimana... selama ini banyak illegal mining yang nambang di konsesi PT Timah dan waktu jual tidak jual ke PT Timah. Sekarang, dengan peraturan yang ketat, harga yang tinggi, mereka hanya boleh tambang di lahan mereka sendiri, saya meragukan yang kecil2 itu punya volume yang besar. Jadi kesimpulannya: ekspor Indonesia tetap terkendali sehingga harga timah dunia tidak akan di bawah 13,000. Dengan harga timah dunia 12,500, keuntungan PT Timah tetap akan di atas Rp 1 triliun ( antara Rp 1 - 1.5 triliun). Regards :-D ----- Original Message ----- From: Untong Sung To: [email protected] Sent: Monday, May 14, 2007 9:58 PM Subject: Re: [saham] Strong appetite for tin in China Pak, bisa jelaskan kenapa TINS sekarang ini harganya turun terus.., pa ini dikarenakan kepercayaan pasar sehubungan dengan management TINS yang amburadul ?. "Jonni Amin, CFA, FRM" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Monday May 14, 2 007 Strong appetite for tin in China CHINA has carved a strong position in the world tin market as reflected by four Chinese smelting companies sitting on the list of the world's top 10 largest tin groups. Last year, Yunnan Tin Co headed the list with an annual refined tin production of 52,399 tonnes, Yunnan Chengfeng with 21,765 tonnes, Liuzhou China Tin 10,927 tonnes and Gejui Zi-Li 8,990 tonnes. A worker holding an ingot of tin - Reuters Tin consumption has grown significantly in China. "Although figures from China are still unreliable, it appears that the nation consumed more than 100,000 tonnes of tin in 2005 - nearly one third of the world's total," said an observer. China's traditional large export surplus of refined tin has almost disappeared. Taking into account trade in tin concentrates and semis, China is currently a net importer of tin. According to CRU Tin Monitor last year, the Chinese market for tin is more than twice the size of the United States market and three times the size of the Japanese market. A survey commissioned by ITRI Ltd and conducted by Commodities Research Unit Ltd and World Bureau of National Statistics indicated that tin usage in solder was growing tremendously worldwide. Solders and tinplate have long been regarded as the two big applications for tin. However, the global solder market has grown to twice the size of tinplate market. The survey noted that regional consumption pattern showed Asian solder producers dominating the global solder sector. More than 100,000 tonnes of tin had gone into solder making in Asia and about one half of the amount was produced in China. It also indicated that about 65% of China's solder sales went to the electrical and electronic markets. The survey said the world tin market was now highly Asia-focused. Asian countries accounted for about 57% of the world usage and annual Asian tin demand has increased since the low point during the financial crisis of 1997-1998. Recent consumption numbers strongly suggest that the tin industry and prices will be demand driven given the positive signs of increasing demand in the major sectors of tin consumption in the electronic sector, scarcity of tin and China Factor Untong S. Business Unit Manager-Novartis Ethical PT. Sumber Daya Mandiri-SDM Marketing Division 4th Fl., Mugi Griya Building Jl. MT. Haryono Kav. 10 Jakarta Selatan 12810 INDONESIA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Looking for a deal? Find great prices on flights and hotels with Yahoo! FareChase.
