Chart Nickel arah US 40.000/mt.
Stok terus bertambah, bahkan sudah di atas 8.000an. Bila produsen nickel terus
melakukan ekspansi dan menambah produksi, apakah nickel akan naik terus? Pasar
sudah kebanjiran supply.
Hati2
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Nickel Falls on Speculation Buyers Deterred; Copper, Zinc Drop
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Brett Foley
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel
fell for a second consecutive day in London on speculation that the metal's
rally over the past year will deter buyers. Copper and zinc declined.
Stainless-steel mills, the largest nickel users, are consuming
inventories, reducing purchases and switching to cheaper raw materials,
Citigroup Inc. analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks in Sydney said yesterday in a
report. Supply will rise in ``coming months,'' creating a surplus next year,
they said.
``We have seen a material change in sentiment in nickel,'' Michael
Jansen, a metals strategist at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. in London, said in an
interview. ``People are now accepting that substitution is an issue and demand
will be lower as a result.''
Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME fell $400, or 0.9
percent, to $45,800 a metric ton as of 12:21 p.m. local time. It has more than
doubled in the past 12 months and traded at a record $51,800 on May 9.
Inventories of the metal monitored by the LME have risen 26 percent
this year to 8,406 tons. Prices probably will halve in coming months as supply
increases, the Citigroup analysts said.
The metal will average $16 a pound ($35,273 a ton) in the six months
to December, Heap and Tonks forecast.
The increased estimate is due to a ``squeeze'' on the LME as hedge
funds are driving prices higher by speculating against miners that have sold
forward their production to protect themselves against price swings, the
analysts said. The price will average $10 a pound in 2008, and $8 in 2009,
according to the report.
Copper fell $60, or 0.8 percent, to $7,480 a ton. LME- monitored
stockpiles dropped 250 tons to 123,050 tons.
Tin declined $25 to $13,950 a ton. Inventories of the metal increased
470 tons to 11,145 tons, the highest since Jan. 31. Stockpiles have declined 14
percent this year.
Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum dropped $33 to $2,770, zinc
fell $83 to $3,692 and lead slid $20 to $2,305.
To contact the reporters on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in
London at [EMAIL PROTECTED] or Brett Foley in London at
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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