Saya kutipkan bagian artikel yang turut menjelaskan alasan harga nikel
turun belakangan ini. Untuk membaca artikel secara lengkap, silahkan
baca langsung di
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=breakingFundsNews&storyID=2007-06-07T191804Z_01_L07570751_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-METALS-UPDATE-7.XML
Silahkan dipelajari isi artikelnya sambil memperhatikan pergerakan
harga nikel dan invetorinya dari grafik yang telah saya berikan
sebelumnya.
Sekedar membantu melakukan konversi dari perkiraan di bawah,
$30,000 - 40,000 per MT setara dengan
$13.6 - 18.14 per lb.
jabat erat,
Irwan Ariston Napitupulu
-----------------------
Nickel tumbles after LME changes rules
Thu Jun 7, 2007 8:18 PM BST17
By Anna Stablum
LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) - Nickel fell almost six percent on Thursday
after the London Metal Exchange changed lending rules to free up more
metal, analysts said.
The nickel market, with prices hitting $51,800 a tonne in May and
rising some 40 percent this year, has been characterised by extreme
tightness with low stocks in LME warehouses and strong use in China.
The LME amended its lending rules, lowering the limit at which holders
of dominant long positions are required to lend to the market, late on
Wednesday.
"They are lowering the lending rules because they want to make more
metal available to the market," analyst Michael Widmer at Calyon said.
[ID:nL07105313]
Two-thirds of nickel output goes to produce stainless steel and
buoyant demand has made it hard to get hold of the metal, which makes
steel harder and more durable.
Nickel for delivery in three months <MNI3> closed down $2,700 at
$42,900 per tonne, its lowest since March 27.
"The weaker tone has been mainly engineered by the LME changing its
lending rules today," analyst Edward Meir at Man Financial said.
Tight market conditions had pushed the backwardation -- the premium
for cash metal over the three-months price -- to $4,000 on May 29, but
on Thursday the nearby spreads fell to $1,200.
"The LME has detected collusive behaviour in the trading of the nearby
nickel contract and acted to tighten the lending guidelines for the
metal significantly," economist John Kemp at Sempra Metals said in a
report.
The guidelines impose lending guidance where two or more market
counterparties, who are nominally independent, hold positions which
are individually small but collectively large -- enough to hold the
rest of the market in thrall, Kemp said.
Stocks in LME-registered warehouses have risen by around 8 percent in
June to 8,604 tonnes but remain down from some 36,000 at the beginning
of 2006.
Analysts said prices had been overstretched, triggering substitution
in the stainless steel industry.
"Nickel will again look attractive when prices are trading in the
$30,000-40,000...range," analyst Robin Bhar at UBS said in a report.
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