Lihat deh artikel dibawah.
DOW sekarang telah turn 5.9% dari 14.000. Batas psikologis penurunan DOW
diperkirakan sekitar -10% dari highestnya, atau di 12.600, siap-siap belanja
bila mendekati itu, tapi kalau turun lagi... jangan ragu untuk CUT LOSS
segera, karena beruang gendut telah tiba.
IHSG telah turun 5.7% dari highestnya di 2400, jika kita pakai rule yang
sama, bila mendekati 2160 siap-siap untuk buy, tapi jika tembus kebawah lagi
dengan volume besar, jangan ragu untuk cut loss.
Sekarang tinggal lihat, siapa duluan yang nyentuh -10% dari highestnya, DOW
or IHSG?
Regards,
DE
AP
Stocks Fall Sharply Amid Credit Fears
Saturday August 4, 12:43 am ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks Fall Following Concerns About Credit, Weaker-Than-Expected Economic
Readings
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street plunged anew Friday, hurtling the Dow Jones
industrial average down more than 280 points after comments from a major
investment bank exacerbated the market's fears of a widening credit crunch.
The drop of more than 2 percent in major stock market indexes was a fitting
end to two volatile weeks on Wall Street and followed back-to-back, late-day
triple digit gains in the Dow. This time, the catalyst for a sharp skid was
Bear Stearns Cos. Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro, who described
turmoil in the credit market as the worst he'd seen in 22 years.
Stocks started the day with a decline after the government said jobs growth
was not as strong as expected last month and a trade group reported that the
nation's service sector grew at a slower pace than expected in July. Then,
credit concerns, which have dogged investors for months and have roiled
markets since last week, further weighed on investor sentiment; Standard &
Poor's Ratings Services lowered its credit outlook on Bear Stearns to
negative from stable because of the investment bank's exposure to the
distressed mortgage and corporate buyout markets.
"I think there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty with regard to the
credit markets and how the situation will ultimately settle," said Mike
Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co.
Investors remain worried that problems in subprime mortgages -- those made
to borrowers with poor credit histories -- will force lenders to make credit
less available. When people and companies can't borrow money as easily, the
economy tends to slow down.
"There is not going to be one sort of clear signal that suggests everything
is OK," Malone said, referring to the subprime and credit worries. "I think
it's going to take time and the equity markets are going to experience
heightened volatility."
Investors could be in for more tumultuousness in the coming week, which not
only includes economic figures on productivity and consumer credit, but also
brings a meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee, which has
left short-term interest rates unchanged for the past year. Investors will
likely be looking to its statement following its meeting for any word on the
mortgage and credit markets.
The Dow fell 281.18 to 13,182.15. As has been typical in recent selloffs,
much of the decline came late in the session; the Dow lost more than 100
points in the final 15 minutes Friday. Despite the day's loss, the index was
off only 0.63 percent for the week.
Broader stock indicators also fell sharply Friday. The Standard & Poor's 500
index dropped 39.14, or 2.66 percent, to 1,433.06, and the Nasdaq composite
index fell 64.73, or 2.51 percent, to 2,511.25. For the week, the S&P fell
1.77 percent, while the Nasdaq fell 1.99 percent.
The concerns have pulled stocks from highs seen only weeks ago. The Dow,
which on July 19 closed above 14,000 for the first time, now sits about 819
points below that level. That 5.9 percent decline puts the Dow more than
halfway toward the technical threshold of a correction, which is 10 percent.
Small-capitalization stocks were hit hard again Friday, partly because the
global economy appears to be growing faster than that of the United States.
Investors often contend profits at larger companies are more likely to hold
up amid a U.S. slowdown because much of their business is drawn from
overseas. The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks fell 28.57,
or 3.64 percent, to 755.42.
The session also saw a notable rise in the bond market, as investors fled to
the relative safety of fixed-income investments. The yield on benchmark
10-year Treasury note fell to 4.68 percent from 4.77 percent late Thursday.
Bond prices move opposite yields.
The unease over the mortgage market and tightening credit Friday again
dragged down financial stocks, which have been hard hit in recent weeks.
Bear Stearns fell $7.28, or 6.3 percent, to $108.35. Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. fell $4.67, or 7.7 percent, to $55.78; the stock traded as low
as $55.46, below its 52-week low of $58.85. Merrill Lynch & Co. fell $2.50,
or 3.5 percent, to $70.05. The stock traded as low as $69.14, below its
earlier 52-week low of $70.86.
Investors also fled lenders. American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.
confirmed late Thursday it has stopped taking mortgage applications and is
laying off most of its 7,000 staffers. American Home dropped 76 cents, or 52
percent, to 69 cents.
Countrywide Financial Corp. fell $1.77, or 6.6 percent, to $25. The nation's
biggest mortgage lender said late Thursday it has adequate access to cash
and isn't facing the liquidity crunch that is hitting dozens of other
smaller players.
In economic news, which didn't provide much reason for investors to look
past the mortgage and credit concerns, the Labor Department said nonfarm
payrolls rose 92,000 last month, less than the 132,000 jobs created in June
and below the average forecast of about 135,000. Also, unemployment ticked
up to 4.6 percent -- a six-month high -- from 4.5 percent in June. Still,
overall unemployment remains low, analysts noted.
Also, the Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index,
which measures service sector activity, fell in July to 55.8 from 60.7 in
June. Wall Street had expected a reading of 59, according to Thomson
Financial/IFR.
Investors still uncertain about the effect of rising subprime mortgage
defaults on the broader economy have regarded the stable job market and
consumer spending as signs the economy might hold up despite a tighter
lending climate. That's because people with steady paychecks are more likely
to keep spending and pay back their debt. At the same time, some pullback in
employment might ease some concerns about wage inflation.
"I think the ISM and the jobs numbers are going to accelerate the general
consensus view that maybe the economy is slower than anticipated," said
Subodh Kumar, global investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Assoc.
"The market has become very much driven from data point to data point
because of uncertainty of a number of issues," he said, citing unease over
credit, oil prices, and a weak dollar.
Crude oil futures settled down $1.38 at $75.42 per barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange after the employment report suggested the economy could
slow and demand for oil could fall. Crude closed at a record $78.21 a barrel
on Tuesday, though ended the week 2 percent lower.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock
Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 4.54 billion shares compared
with 4.18 billion traded Thursday.
In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.03 percent, Hong
Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.4 percent, and China's Shanghai Composite
Index rose 3.5 percent. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.21 percent,
Germany's DAX index fell 1.31 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.48
percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week down 83.56, or 0.63 percent,
at 13,181.91. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished down 25.89, or 1.77
percent, at 1,433.06. The Nasdaq composite index ended down 50.99, or 1.99
percent, at 2,511.25.
The Russell 2000 index finished the week down 22.41, or 2.88 percent, at
755.42.
The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index
that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended Friday at 14,432.34, down
278.44 for the week. A year ago, the index was at 12,826.14.
New York Stock Exchange: HYPERLINK "http://www.nyse.com/"http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: HYPERLINK "http://www.nasdaq.com/"http://www.nasdaq.com
_____
From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of
djajaprana
Sent: Saturday, August 04, 2007 1:45 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [saham] Re: MALAIKAT PENOLONG
--- In HYPERLINK "mailto:saham%40yahoogroups.com"[EMAIL PROTECTED],
"James Arifin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Maksudnya kali retailer jangan SHORT biar kami2 pemain besar ada
> kesempatan bersihin barang dulu ... Bung Laksono semalam MUKAnya
PUCAT PASI lihat DOW turun -284 dan tembus 13200....
Iya, tgl 3/8 Dow turun 2,09%.Kalau dihitung dari prestasi puncak Dow
14.000, hingga kemarin sudah melorot 819 point atau (5,85%).
Macam mana pulak ini bang IAN,hari Senin pagi apa masih sempat bikin
cash 100%? Lha jadi ingat lagu oldies "To see my angel cry"...
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