Untuk yg pegang RUBBER.
DJ Natural Rubber Outlook Turns Bearish As Supply Concerns Ease
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--An increase in natural rubber production as recent
unseasonable rains subside in Thailand and Malaysia - the world's largest and
third largest producing countries - is likely to continue dragging market
sentiment down in the weeks ahead, industry observers said Wednesday.
Prices on the influential Tokyo Commodity Exchange hit a fresh two-week low
Wednesday.
The benchmark January ribbed smoked sheet 3 grade contract has shed around 3%
since Friday's close. Wednesday, the January contract settled at Y254.8 a
kilogram, down Y2.9 from Tuesday's close.
"The outlook for rubber has definitely turned weaker, and despite inevitable
rebounds along the way, the downtrend is likely to continue as technical charts
and fundamentals now appear very bearish," said Tetsu Emori, an analyst with
Tokyo-based Mitsui Bussan Futures.
"How the market reacts around the next psychological support level at Y245 is
critical and will give a better indication of the longer-term outlook. A
near-term breach of that level could open the way for Y220 or even Y200 in the
weeks ahead," said Tetsu.
Recent heavy rains in Thailand and Malaysia, at a time when both countries
should have been at seasonal peak output levels, interfered with tapping and
led to supply worries among consumers, which in turn bolstered market
sentiment.
From Aug. 1 to Aug. 7, around 1,236 tons of raw material arrived in southern
Thailand's three main rubber markets of Hat Yai, Surat Thani and Nikon
Thammarat, an increase of around 36% from the July 23-July 27 period.
"It's early days, and obviously no one can predict the weather in the longer
term, but we've had around six days of favorable conditions now, and we are
likely to see a further increase in rubber coming onto the market in the days
ahead," said a trader in Hat Yai.
Although heavy rains throughout southern Thailand and northern Malaysia in
recent weeks delayed tapping, plantations have benefited, as moisture helps
reduce heat stress to trees, which in turn can help boost yield.
Thailand is the world's biggest rubber producer, with an annual output of
around 3 million tons, while Malaysia's annual output is around 1.2 million
tons.
Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer, with an annual output of
around 2.5 million tons.
-By Andrew Jones; Dow Jones Newswires; 65-6415-4083; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 08, 2007 03:15 ET (07:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 03 15 AM EDT 08-08-07
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