ML: 21 August 2007 Earnings estimates shaved on lower ferronickel output We cut our NPAT estimates for ANTM by 12% for 2007 and 6% for both 2008 and 2009. Our ferronickel output estimate has been lowered on ANTM's decision to cut its FeNi3 power load by another 11-20% in September when the plant is recommissioned. Our end-2007 DCF estimate is cut by 6% to Rp1,422. but downside risks on FeNi3 persist We understand that superficial repairs are currently being done to the FeNi3 line. Neither ANTM, Hatch (FeNi3 designer) nor Kawasaki (FeNi3 contractor) has been able to pinpoint the cause of the leakage. We believe technical issues will continue to plague the line and may permanently impair its stated output capacity. Ore export business not exactly secure either Indonesia's new mining law, due out by end-2007, will stipulate a ban on ore exports, according to Member of Parliament Airlangga Hartanto, who was involved in the ratification. We think ANTM's existing contracts will be honored but renewal may not be possible. With 80% of ANTM's ore contracts expiring in 2008, our gross profit forecast for that year is in jeopardy as 20% of it is based on ore exports. No support from fundamental valuation; prefer PT Inco The stock looks expensive, trading at a 49% premium to its global nickel peers' 2008E P/E of 7.5x and at a 54% premium to our end-07E NPV of Rp1,422. We advise investors to switch to PT Inco [PTNDF, C-1-7, Rp44,400], which offers better value proposition and is well-placed to raise its dividend payout ratio. PT Inco's share currently trades at 6.2x 2008E P/E, a 21% discount to its NPV.
DP: 22 August 2007 Aneka Tambang: Obtains financing commitment for its acquisition Recommendation (under review); Rp2,025; ANTM IJ; TP Rp2,540 It is reported that Aneka Tambang (ANTM) has obtained financing commitment of c.US$1.5bn from three national banks (BNI, BCA, BMRI) for acquisition. Previously, there were c.10 mining companies that ANTM was considering to acquire; among others, they include gold mining companies PT. Newmont Nusa Tenggara, PT. Newmont Horas Nauli and Freeport. ANTM indicated (1H07 result is due out in end-August 2007) that 1H07 revenue is expected to arrive at Rp4tr (up c.90% y-o-y), while net profit is estimated to reach c.Rp2tr (up 288% y-o-y). Such indication is above our projection, achieving 59% of our full-year forecast, but we maintain our estimates for the time being, considering weaknesses in nickel price and FeNi III's incident. The latter may force ANTM to cut production target of 20,000 tonnes for 2007 to c.15,000-18,000 tonnes. ANTM's share price has dropped 25.7%, underperforming the market by 9.9% in the last one month following sell-offs in the broader market. As such, we are reviewing our recommendation for the counter while keeping target price unchanged at Rp2,540 (based on 7.5x 2008 PE). The counter is currently trading at 6x 2008 PE, while INCO is trading at 5.7x. From this aspect as well as lower operational risk, we prefer INCO (target price at Rp63,600 based on 8x 2008 PE) amongst nickel producers. Jabat Erat P2 --- In [email protected], "Arda Billy" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Di Harian Kontan hari ini (hal 6), BNI Securities merkomendasikan BELI > ANTM dengan TP Rp 5.000. Semoga menjadi referensi pembanding bagi > pemegang ANTM. > > ________________________________ > > From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of > Aria Bela Nusa > Sent: Thursday, August 23, 2007 6:07 AM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Cc: [email protected] > Subject: [saham] RE: [obrolan-bandar]ANTM : Making Love research (22 Aug > 07) TP Rp 4200 > Importance: High > > IT'S HAPPY TIME - RITE, PAK LCY... > > > ________________________________ > > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Lee Cwan Yeuw > Sent: Wednesday, August 22, 2007 6:15 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar]ANTM : Making Love research (22 Aug 07) TP > Rp 4200 > > When you have ANTM portfolio.. you can dream the price will be 4200 > > When you are ML... target price for ANTM 4200 > > Making Love ini bikin bingung INVESTOR AJA !!! > Mabuk Lagi ini bikin bingung INVESTOR AJA !!! > > > sorry........... just kidding > > > When someone think .. JCI will 1500.. > He is OD (Over Dosage) > > > just kidding > you can dream as Zeus Power - INCO target price 5100 down 90%. > TLKM 1000 > SMGR 250 > > > hi.hi.hi > > > > ________________________________ > > <http://answers.yahoo.com.sg> > Real people. Real questions. Real answers. Share what you know > <http://answers.yahoo.com.sg> . > Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI. Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
