Fundamental outlook for tin and nickel (concern for us on ANTM, INCO, TINS) : Tight supplies, strong Chinese demand bolster metals outlook
VERONICA BROWN Reuters October 12, 2007 at 7:02 AM EDT LONDON — Base metal prices will ride a wave of tight supply, dollar weakness and Chinese demand to bolster prices into 2008 but the picture further out is murkier. Metals analysts at banks and trading houses have compiled their base metals outlooks for the London Metal Exchange's annual event of seminars and dinners this week. China's voracious appetite for metals remains undimmed, with its immense purchasing power barely affected by global ructions that emerged during the summer crisis in credit markets. Analysts point to physical supply tightness this year and into next, exacerbated by supply disruptions and production delays. Commodities remain in focus for investment diversification, with pension funds diversifying their assets away from stocks, mostly to indices which buy and hold commodity futures. China is a producer and a consumer. But plans to build new houses and offices and expand its rail network over the next few years have more than sustained metal demand. "The 2008 outlook for LME metals hinges on the sustainability of China's expansion plans, and the capacity for commodity exporting countries to meet that demand growth," Mitsui Bussan Commodities said, adding that its primary production capacity expansion was vulnerable to raw material supply risks. Mitsui estimated prices for benchmark copper at an average of $7,929 (U.S.) per tonne for 2007 and forecast a rise to $8,118 in 2008. Global markets were sent into spasms in late July and August as a crisis in global liquidity emerged from problems in the U.S. high risk, or subprime mortgage, sector. Several asset classes including stocks, foreign exchange and some key commodities were roiled by spiking volatility and risk aversion in a dash for cash fuelled by worries about the impact of the global credit market squeeze. Base metal prices recovered losses quickly with some, such as lead, reaching record highs as speculators bet heavily on tight supply. The dollar hitting successive record lows versus the euro also made dollar-priced metals cheaper for non-U.S. investors. Some analysts have worried however that further fallout from the credit crisis has yet to unfold. Standard Bank said this fallout could come through in the fourth quarter and beyond with a few clouds on the horizon such as: "a slight downward revision to the U.S. economic outlook in 2008 owing to continuing problems in the U.S. housing market." "China (and to a lesser, but increasing extent, India) has become such a dominant force that economic weakness in the U.S. is being overshadowed and offset by China's continued growth," it added. Many analysts point to tight conditions in the market, highlighted by several accidents and stoppages in key producing countries and companies, such as the recent stoppage at Southern Copper in Peru. Barclays Capital said copper in particular was at risk of considerable fundamental tightening, with raw materials tight, inventory levels low and the prospect of a big pick up in Chinese buying. ABN Amro said, however, that the tide was turning for copper and other industrial metals, with a period of global supply surpluses, build in inventory and a declining price environment. The bank said that copper's period of surplus could last through to 2011. "We estimate that these surpluses will by the end of our forecast period total 1.65 million tonnes," it said. It saw the spot copper price declining to an average $6,945 a tonne in 2008 from $7,385 this year. The bank saw nickel prices unwinding after a blistering rally that started in 2001, with the market moving into surplus. But while the bullish price sentiment had soured, it expected demand to be underpinned by relentless Chinese stainless steel production growth. It predicted a 30,000-tonne global supply surplus in 2007 and modest oversupply persisting over the next few years. Analysts were also less positive on prospects for zinc and aluminum, with zinc seen giving way to a projected large surplus in 2008. Barclays Capital saw aluminum trapped in tight ranges, although forward prices should be supported by continued escalation in production costs.
