Mandiri Focus - APLN - 26feb13 Buy TP 600 An interesting laggard play
We think is a good re-entry point for APLN. The stock price is laggard behind the recent rally in the property and construction stocks (the index has outperformed the JCI by 18% vs. APLN -1.7%). Meanwhile, the valuation is attractive at 7.9-6.2x PE 13F-14F vs industry average 15.4-12.4x. A re-rating to the construction valuation is valid given similarly fast churning business model. The 21 new projects post the IPO should alleviate concern over growth sustainability ahead. We refresh our coverage on APLN with BUY rating, at new TP of Rp600/share, pegging at 11.8x 13F PE. APLN is one of our top picks. A credible asset churner. In total APLN is running 28 projects, 21 of which were secured post IPO in 2010. 19 out of them are property development projects, with the rest are property investment, including mall and hotel development. Three potential new projects to sustain growth up to next 3 years. Further, APLN is eyeing 3 new projects, 2 of which in Jakarta and 1 in prime area in Medan North Sumatera, bringing a potential of 23ha new development for the company. We expect APLN’s revenue growth will be sustained up to the next 3 years of our estimated Rp11.4tn project sales revenue from the projects. Pluit 450ha land reclamation project to secure medium-term growth. Medium term growth outlook is foreseen from the potential 450ha land reclamation project in Pluit, North Jakarta. Valuation is attractive, BUY. Often compared to TOTL IJ being its main contractor and also the closest proxy to the high-rise Indonesia property, APLN looks under-valued having its valuation at 58% disc to TOTL IJ, while growth estimated faster of 31.3% CAGR vs. TOTL of 27.8%. Of 31.0% CAGR11-14F marketing sales growth, we expect APLN’s EPS to reach of Rp50.8/sh and Rp64.1/sh, respectively. Reinstate BUY. We use PE in deriving our TP of Rp600/sh. Satriawan Technical Analyst DISCLAIMER Sent from BlackBerry® on 3 ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. [email protected] untuk berhenti dari milis saham [email protected] untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: [email protected] [email protected] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [email protected] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
