Kita hitung2 Libya Area 47:
Saya dapat kepastian 6 well dgn max output
20000bopd/well, tapi plan ke depan produksi
7000bopd/well.
Lifting cost 10$/bbl, bagi hasil net tax libya 6.8%.
Per hari laba kotornya $226,000. Per taun $82Jt,
dikurangi PPH Indonesia (kalo ada double taxation) ,
$57jt, atau $0.0173 per lembar saham, dirupiahkan Rp
158 kontribusi Area 47 ke EPS.
Yg SENORO kalo asumsi $5/mmbtu (harga internasional
7.7$) wah bisa gila saya, gede kontribusinya.
Mudah2an hitungan2 nggak salah!
--- BI9 80SS <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> st1\:* { BEHAVIOR: url(#default#ieooui) }
> @font-face { font-family: Verdana; } @page
> Section1 {size: 8.5in 11.0in; margin: 1.0in 1.25in
> 1.0in 1.25in; } P.MsoNormal { FONT-SIZE: 12pt;
> MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"
> } LI.MsoNormal { FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0in 0in
> 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman" }
> DIV.MsoNormal { FONT-SIZE: 12pt; MARGIN: 0in 0in
> 0pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman" } A:link {
> COLOR: blue; TEXT-DECORATION: underline }
> SPAN.MsoHyperlink { COLOR: blue; TEXT-DECORATION:
> underline } A:visited { COLOR: purple;
> TEXT-DECORATION: underline }
> SPAN.MsoHyperlinkFollowed { COLOR: purple;
> TEXT-DECORATION: underline } P { FONT-SIZE:
> 12pt; MARGIN-LEFT: 0in; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0in;
> FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-margin-top-alt:
> auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto }
> SPAN.EmailStyle18 { COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY:
> Arial; mso-style-type: personal-reply }
> DIV.Section1 { page: Section1 }
>
> MEDCO ENERGI (MEDC IJ)...This is the high
> conviction idea from the sales desk. Medco is
> probably one of the most undervalued oil and gas
> play (in terms of reserves) in the region. The
> stock has been a massive laggard in the oil and gas
> space for a combination of reasons.
> Mike Chambers and Eugene Chung wrote the
> following:
> 1, Its current Indonesia oil and gas production
> has peaked and declining making current earnings
> multiplies unattractive.
> 2, There has been continue disappointment on
> monetizing their gas assets (mainly Senoro gas in
> Sulawesi) by building a LNG facility.
> 3, Association of the Lapindo blowout where Medco
> has 32% working interest (Energi Mega is the
> operator). Medco has divested the stake and
> relinquished of possible liabilities.
>
> However, a number of recent developments lead us
> to believe the stock is about to re-rate through
> divestment and value recognition of their key
> non-producing assets.
> Divestment:
> 1, Mgmt is looking to divest their 51% stake in
> oil service company Apexindo (APEX IJ) worth around
> US$400m. Already invited bids and transaction
> should be complete by 1Q08.
> 2, Divestment of a number if non operating stakes
> in Indonesia oil fields could. Expect to raise
> US450-500m.
>
> What does this mean?
> Current market cap of Medco is US$1.5bn. Take out
> valuation of divestment. You are paying US$500m for
> 150m boe of 1P reserves (483m boe of 2P) = less than
> US$4 per barrel of 1P
> But than, the most exciting and biggest upside
> comes from its two key assets.
> 1, Medco owns a 50% interest a oil field in Libya
> (Block 47). No sell side analyst have attached a
> fair valuation to that asset due to the fact it is
> in early exploration stage. However, recent 5
> wells drilled shows a 100% hit rate with very high
> flow rates. We understand that the oil field might
> contain over 1bn barrels of oil. Note: The other
> 50% interest is owned by a Canadian listed co
> Verenex (VNC CN). VNC is valued at US$500 and they
> do not own anything other than the Libya prospects.
> Medco is looking to unlock their value of Block 47
> through a AIM listing in 2H08.
> 2, Senora gas field. Progress to build a LNG
> facility there (monetize the gas reserves) has been
> disappointing. However, Mitsubishi (top contender
> to build the project - Japanese biggest buyer of LNG
> from Indonesia) has recently bought a 20% indirect
> stake of Medco through holding company Encore Energy
> valuing Medco at Rp4,800/share. Why buy a 20%
> non-controlling stake in Medco if you not intend to
> be partners? Once LNG deal is a go, GSA agreement
> will be signed bringing another 120mboe to 1P
> reserves worth US$500.
> Any angle you look at it. The stock is cheap with
> multiple catalyst for the stock to re-rate.
> Our back of the envelope SOTP valuation has a Tp
> of Rp6,500. BUY with 56% upside (add another
> Rp1000/share if you include divestment of non-core
> indo assets)
>
>
**************************************************************************
> This message and any attachments are solely for the
> intended recipient and may contain confidential or
> privileged information. If you are not the intended
> recipient, any disclosure, copying, use, or
> distribution of the information included in this
> message and any attachments is prohibited. If you
> have received this communication in error, please
> notify us by reply email and immediately and
> permanently delete this message and any attachments.
> Thank you
>
>
> No virus found in this outgoing message.
> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> Version: 7.5.488 / Virus Database: 269.14.4/1056 -
> Release Date: 10/7/2007 6:12 PM
>
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam
> protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham.
DILARANG KERAS MEMOSTING OPINI PRIBADI TENTANG POLITIK DI MILIS INI.
Silahkan lakukan itu di milis [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk berhenti dari milis saham
[EMAIL PROTECTED] untuk bergabung ke milis saham
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/saham/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
