[saham] ML : Maintain Sell; no support from fundamental valuation

[Joe Grunk]

  Satu lagi berita buruk ANTM.
   
  Maintain Sell; no support from fundamental valuation
  ANTM is the most expensive mining stock in our universe and trades at a 28%
  and 151% premium to our global nickel peers’ 2008 P/E of 10.7x and our 2008E
  NPV, respectively. In comparison, other nickel stocks like Minara and PT Inco
  trade at premiums of 39% and 23%, respectively, to their base-case NPVs
   
  Further downside risks persist
  ANTM’s FeNi3 line is still operating well below its full capacity, and leakage
  problems remain unknown. Downside risk to consensus production estimates
  would remain high if the FeNi3 line has to be shut down again. While the fall 
in
  nickel price since October is already in our estimates, the 20% rise in 
domestic
  fuel price (not in our estimates) could drag down 4Q profit by a further 18%.

       
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