TERLAMPAU MURAH, ANALISIS GW MALAH TIDAK TERTUTUP KEMUNGKINAN CPO BAKAL TEMBUS RM 4RIBU/TON DALAM WAKTU 3 BULAN KEDEPAN, DIPENGARUHI OLEH POTENSI TURUNNYA PRODUKSI APALAGI ADANYA GEJALA PEMANASAN GLOBAL YG MENYEBABKAN TINGGINYA PROSENTASI GAGAL PANEN PADA KEBON SAWIT DI INDO DAN MALAYSIA, BILA HAL INI BENAR TERJADI HARGA RM 5 RIBU/TON MENJADI HARGA YG BAKAL TERCAPAI. MEMANG KEJAM SIH BAGI WARGA MISKIN DI INDO, TAPI ITULAH RESIKO BILA EKONOMI DISERAHKAN KE PASAR.
2008/1/21, Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > > Grafik > CPO<http://ifs.marketcenter.com/charts/charts.jsp?cID=AGMAS&iFSsymbols=MPO+F8-BMD&iFScompareTo=&iFSperiod=D&iFSvminutes=&iFSchartsize=800x550&iFSbardensity=LOW&iFSbartype=CANDLE&iFSstudies=&iFSohlc=true%255d> > > Regards, > DE > > On Jan 21, 2008 9:07 AM, Hendra Susanto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > *Palm oil sector outlook: Conditions ripening - Upgrade CPO forecasts > > (attached)* > > > > > > *We have upgraded our CPO price forecasts from RM3,000/t to RM3,400/t, > > or 13%, for 2008 and 2009. This isslightly above current prices RM3,280 and > > consensus (RM2,750/t). * > > > > *Rightly so, I am convinced that this is the year for soft commodities. > > Analayst on the street will have to be in the catch up game on upgrading > > their assumotions like we have seen in coal and base metals 12-24 months > > ago. Soft commodites like CPO is still a massive underperformer to oil and > > base metals. When inventory reach critically low levels like we see now > > (like base metals 18-24 months ago, note countries like China, Russia, > > Agentina are not imposing either export quota and tariffs) prices is > > unlikely just to double. Triple and quadtriple is more likely. Earning of > > producers is highly highly leveraged to price. * > > > > > > Ialso raised the rubber price assumption by similar percentage of 13.3%to > > US$2.8 cents. > > > > *Indonesian listed plantation* > > > > Following CLSA house view of higher CPO price of RM3,400 (vs. previously > > RM3,000), we have upgraded our earnings of Astra Agro by 19%, Lonsum (23%), > > and Bakrie Sumatera (31%). This reflects the earnings sensitivity to the > > underlying commodities as we raised our CPO price and rubber price > > assumption by 13.3% > > > > Indonesian listed plantation companies are largely upstream plantation > > with minimal exposure in refinery and oleo chemical except Smart that has > > large 850k tons refinery/cooking oil facilities. Earnings sensitivity to > > every 10% increase in both palm oil and rubber price is 15% in Astra Agro, > > 17% in Lonsum, and 24% in Bakrie Sumatera. > > > > *We continue to prefer Lonsum and BSumatera that trades at 35% discount > > to Astra Agro on EV per planted hectare valuation. We have raised our target > > price to reflect CLSA bullish view on CPO and soft commodities in general. > > * > > > > *New target price for Astra Agro is Rp33,000 (up from Rp25,000), Lonsum > > is Rp19,000 (Rp14,000), and Bakrie Sumatera Rp3,200 (Rp2,650).* > > > > > > Best regards, > > *Wuddy Warsono, CFA* > > CLSA Indonesia | Institutional Sales > > Phone: (62-21) 573 9460 > > HP: (62) 816 78 6352 > > Fax: (62-21) 574 6923* > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > *CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing > > this Email* > > > > The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and > > Regulatory Notices, which can be viewed at > > https://www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html or sent to you upon request. > > > > > >
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