________________________________
From: "Wuddy Warsono, CLSA"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Thu, 3 Jul 2008 12:27:45
+0800
To: Wuddy Warsono,
CLSA<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: CL INDO: Indo Coal
correction - Buying opportunity
Pls see email from
our coal analyst Olie below. The sellf-off is a buying opportunity, in our
view.
* The
“price collapse” heard in the market is coal price in future market, not in the
physical
market. The index that went down is the API2 Index for coal delivered to
Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp in 2009.
* The
index went down to US$190/tonne on July 2nd from US$215.5 on July
1stafter going up for several weeks.
* The
dropping future price caused profit taking in the US coal equities
last night and Asia Pac coal equities today.
* Note
that the physical market is still strong. The latest spot deals at Newcastle
Port in Australia on July 1stranged between US$195-197/tonne.
* Coal
fundamental remains solid and we are still using US$125/tonne benchmark for our
earnings forecasts in 2008-2009CL.
* Valuations on Indonesian coal companies, at current price, look
attractive, as shown on the table below.
Companies PE (x) EV/Ebitda
08CL 09CL 08CL 09CL
Bumi
Resources 16.8 9.4 8.7 4.8
Bukit
Asam 17.4 8.1 11.2 4.7
ITM 16.1 7.1 7.8 3.2
Best regards,
Wuddy Warsono,
CFA
CLSA Indonesia | Institutional
Sales
Phone: (62-21) 573 9460
Toll Free - HK: 800 938 000
Toll Free - SIN: 800 621
1104
Toll Free - US: 800 460
2581
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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